Where the !*$# is Valuetown?? (pokey)
2. Getting your opponent to call when he has the worst hand
Ah, the art of poker. You've got the nuts -- the absolute, unburnished nuts! Now what?
Well, now you've got to figure out how to get paid. One of the greatest difficulties in poker is deciding on bet sizing. We've got a dilemma: the bigger our bet, the bigger our payoff when we get called but the less likely our opponent is to call us. How do we maximize value when we think our hand is best? We pick our bet size carefully. Some general hints:
- Bet bigger when our table image sucks. If we've been playing crappy poker, or if we've been unlucky enough to get caught stealing a few times, or if we've not shown down any winners lately, our table image will look bad. This is especially true if this particular opponent has caught us stealing recently. Feel free to make large bets -- it'll look desperate and scared, and our opponent will call more often than usual.
- Bet bigger if you're "on tilt." I put "on tilt" in quotes because I'm assuming you're NOT on tilt (we're beyond emotional play, right? ) No, what I mean here is that you can bet bigger if your play will *look* like a tilt play to your opponent. The last hand your nut flush lost to a rivered full house? You're on tilt, baby! If you're lucky enough to catch pocket rockets this hand, play it to the bone -- nobody is going to believe you, and you'll be paid off because "he's tilting off another stack; I'll bet my 3PNK is good!"
- Bet bigger if your opponent is bad and/or unobservant. Against a good opponent or a watchful one, you can't get away with sizing your bets based on your hands. But against an idiot you can bet big with a big hand and small with a small hand and suffer no negative consequences. Feel free to make these kinds of plays against the hopeless goobers sitting at your table; just be sure you behave yourself when a smart player is in the pot.
- Bet bigger if your opponent sees too many showdowns. This is a useful number to have in your HUD for this reason alone.
- Bet smaller if your opponent is timid. A weak-tight nit is not going to pay off a pot-sized river bet without a strong hand; make sure you give him enough odds to talk himself into a crying call.
- Bet smaller if your opponent couldn't possibly have a big hand. If you've got AA on a
board of AAQ72, you simply can't get away with betting much under normal circumstances. Make a small bet and be happy that you got paid off at all.
- Bet smaller if your opponent likes to raise or check-raise weakness. Some opponents LOVE to push people off their hands on the river; if that's the case, do whatever it takes to induce a bluff. A common betting pattern that might do this at uNL is "raise preflop, 3/4ths-pot flop, 1/2-pot turn, 1/2-pot river." That small river bet can induce a maniac to come over the top with a bluff raise, hoping to drag down a big'un. This is especially true if the "obvious draw" misses on the river.
(Note that many of these hints work the other way around for sizing bluffs.) 3. "Value bluffing."
Of all the ideas in this post, value bluffing is probably the least understood. It's the river equivalent of a semi-bluff: a bet that is not +EV as a bluff, is not +EV as a value bet, but is +EV as a combination of the two. How can you possibly have a situation at the river where your bet is "part bluff, part value bet"? Well, because your opponent isn't holding a hand; he's holding a range.
I'll repeat that, because it's a really, Really, REALLY important concept: your opponent isn't holding a hand; he's holding a range. Anybody who says he can size up an opponent -- look him in the eye, stare him in the soul -- and identify his exact hand holding ... well, that person is a liar. It's what good players say to freak out their opponents.
The truth is that unless an opponent is woefully straightforward in playing style, you won't know their exact holding. Best case, you'll know their range. Of course, this works the other way around, too: your opponent can't identify your exact holding, either. Now, the combination of these two scenarios leads to the interesting (though unusual)
situation of the value bluff.
Let's say that your opponent is an ultra-loose but not completely stupid player. He's not a "good LAG," because they don't exist at uNL (or SSNL, for that matter). Rather, he's a
"semi-thinking LAG." A while back, someone coined the phrase "1.5th-level thinker" to represent a player who thinks about your hand but always puts you on AK. It was a joke, but beginning hand readers will often do something very similar to this, putting you on an overly narrow hand range and sticking to it despite any evidence to the contrary. So, let's say this is the kind of opponent you have: loose enough that you can't predict his holdings all that well, smart enough to try to put you on a hand, but amateurish enough to do a really bad job of it.
The current board is AJ974 with no flushes. You have QJo and you attempted a steal. At the river, you've got second pair.
Your opponent's range is quite wide, but you think there's an 75% chance you're beaten.
If you bet the pot, there's a 1/3rd chance he'll fold a better hand than yours and also a 1/3rd chance he'll call with a worse hand than yours. How does this work out?
He folds 1/3*(75%) + 2/3*(25%) = 41.7% of the time. Here you win 1xPot.
He calls with a worse hand 1/3*(25%) = 8.3% of the time. Here you win 2xPot.
He calls with a better hand 2/3*(75%) = 50% of the time. Here you lose 1xPot.
Your net is 0.417*(+1) + 0.083*(+2) + 0.5*(-1) = +0.083xPot, making this a winning strategy.
Note that this strategy doesn't work as a bluff -- villain only folds 1/3rd of the time, and you're risking the pot on the bluff (you lay 1-to-1 odds on a bet that's 2-to-1 against you
winning). Note also that this strategy doesn't work as a value bet -- villain's hand beats yours 75% of the time, but you're only getting twice your money when you win (you're getting 2-to-1 odds on a 3-to-1 longshot). In other words, the bet is -EV as a bluff, -EV as a value bet, but +EV as a combination of the two. Villain's sloppy hand-reading combined with villain's unidentifiable hand makes this a fuzzy enough betting area to be +EV.
Here are some Valuetown examples from my $100NL play.
Get the money in while they still have potential.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
Pokey (SB): $100.00 BB: $85.95
UTG: $46.50 MP: $34.70 CO: $85.25 BTN: $45.35
Villain is horrible: 66/11 preflop, 4 average aggression. He's bleeding money in every direction and he won't last long.
Preflop: Pokey is dealt A A (6 Players) 4 folds, Pokey raises to $4.00, BB calls $3.00 Flop: ($8) J 8 4 (2 Players)
Pokey bets $5.00, BB raises to $10.00, Pokey calls $5.00
Three-betting is SUCH a strong move that I don't want to scare him off yet.
Turn: ($28) 3 (2 Players)
Pokey checks, BB bets $28.00, Pokey raises to $79.00, BB calls all-in for $43.95 Uncalled bet of $7.05 returned to Pokey
Given his aggression factor, I take the risk of a check-raise. He doesn't disappoint me, and he quickly calls off the rest of his stack with a cruddy draw. Note that he didn't even have the proper odds to call my raise.
River: ($171.90) Q (2 Players - 1 All-In) Pot Size: $171.90 ($3 Rake)
BB had 6 5 (Queen Jack high) and LOST (-$85.95) Pokey had A A (a pair of Aces) and WON (+$82.95)
By getting the money in while villain still had a draw, I stacked him. If I'd waited until the river to try and take his money, he would have easily folded his unimproved 65o.
Potential is great for a good player but extremely expensive for a bad one.
---Sneaky hands can bet harder.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
SB: $142.00
Pokey (BB): $100.00 UTG: $35.10
MP: $58.95 CO: $28.05 BTN: $38.50
Villain here runs 47/15 preflop and 2.4 postflop.
Preflop: Pokey is dealt 6 5 (6 Players)
UTG calls $1.00, MP folds, CO calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, SB calls $0.50, Pokey checks Plenty of padding from limpers; I might as well see a free flop with my speculative hand.
Flop: ($5) 2 8 4 (5 Players)
SB checks, Pokey bets $4.00, 3 folds, SB raises to $8.00, Pokey calls $4.00
Double-gutter; that's a hand. I bet strong and get a minraise. I can nearly call on pot odds, and definitely on implied odds since I'm in position.
Turn: ($21) 7 (2 Players)
SB bets $21.00, Pokey raises to $50.00, SB calls $29.00
Bingo! I hit my hand. Villain bets hard and I have the absolute nuts -- I make a raise that villain can easily call, but that leaves villain with a crying call on nearly any river.
River: ($121) 3 (2 Players)
SB checks, Pokey bets all-in for $41.00, SB calls $41.00
No way does an aggressive opponent check through with a runner-runner flush. I make the obligatory all-in bet and villain makes the obligatory crying call.
Pot Size: $203.00 ($3 Rake)
SB had 8 2 (two pair, Eights and Twos) and LOST (-$100.00) Pokey had 6 5 (a straight, Eight high) and WON (+$100.00)
This hand shows a good multi-street strategy that intends to make it very easy for villain to put all his money in the middle. Note that even though straights and flushes have hit the board, villain feels obligated to pay off the 1/3rd-pot bet (all-in) on the river with only two pair. A turn push is quite aggressive, throwing in a more-than-pot-sized raise, but smooth-calling the turn leaves too much behind to have a reasonable way of getting it all in on the river. The smallish turn raise followed by the tiny river bet are both easy for villain to convince himself to call, and I stack him with my straight.
---Sneaky hands can bet harder, redux.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
SB: $68.90 BB: $42.65
Pokey (UTG): $98.50 CO: $45.05
BTN: $72.00
Villain is mediocre-to-bad, running 29/9 preflop and with a 2.3 average aggression postflop.
Preflop: Pokey is dealt 2 2 (5 Players)
Pokey calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00, BTN folds, SB raises to $2.00, BB calls $1.00, Pokey calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00
Deuces never loses, woo!
Flop: ($8) 4 Q 2 (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Pokey bets $5.00, CO folds, SB calls $5.00, BB folds
GREAT flop. Given that the preflop raiser just checked, I decide to bet for value and to try to build a pot (hoping for callers) and it works.
Turn: ($18) 4 (2 Players)
SB checks, Pokey bets $12.00, SB calls $12.00
I'm not afraid of the draw anymore, so rather than try to price him out, I offer a 2/3rds-pot bet. Villain comes along for the ride. Either he's got a Q and he's drawing nearly dead or he's got hearts and he's drawing totally dead. Either way, I'm happy.
River: ($42) 8 (2 Players)
SB bets $6.00, Pokey raises to $50.00, SB calls all-in for $43.90 Uncalled bet of $0.10 returned to Pokey
Thank goodness for position: we river the third heart and villain makes a pansy-sized bet. Rather than smooth-call my near-nuts, or make some weak-assed minraise, I push, knowing that I lose the three-pair hands and bluffs, but that I get called by the flushes.
Since I was going to lose the bluffs anyways, this seems +EV to me. Villain pays me off with his heart flush.
Pot Size: $141.80 ($3 Rake)
SB had Q J (a flush, Queen high) and LOST (-$68.90)
Pokey had 2 2 (a full house, Twos full of Fours) and WON (+$69.90)
Lessons here: let villains draw if they're drawing dead (or nearly so). If villain shows interest and you know you've got him dead-to-rights, go for the freakin' jugular. Sneaky hands have the potential to win bigger pots than obvious hands.
---Protecting your hand.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
Pokey (SB): $99.00 BB: $100.00
UTG: $109.10 MP: $67.10 CO: $134.10 BTN: $155.00
Both CO and Button are extremely loose and extremely aggro.
Preflop: Pokey is dealt A A (6 Players)
UTG calls $1.00, MP folds, CO calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, Pokey raises to $6.00, 2 folds, CO calls $5.00, BTN calls $5.00
Super-premium hand, so I charge 'em to see.
Flop: ($20) 2 4 7 (3 Players)
Pokey checks, CO bets $12.00, BTN calls $12.00, Pokey calls $12.00
I wasn't c-betting into these two very often, so I figured that with BOTH of them in the hand I had room to get trappy. I check, hoping for a bet, and they oblige. With a relatively blank board, I smooth-call to see a turn.
Turn: ($56) 9 (3 Players)
Pokey checks, CO bets $33.00, BTN calls $33.00, Pokey raises all-in to $81.00, 2 folds Uncalled bet of $48.00 returned to Pokey
This board just became *way* too drawy to allow any cheap cards. I don't want to deal with a river decision, and I don't want to be looking over my shoulder if the river comes with a diamond or spade, not to mention a 2, 3, 4, 7, or 9. With this many scare cards, I just put all my money in the middle after the bet. To my great surprise, BOTH villains fold for the relatively small additional bet. I guess they trusted me more than they trusted each other....
Pot Size: $155.00 ($3 Rake)
Read this hand as an example of showing weakness to induce bets, snapping off multiple bluffs, knowing your opponents, and protecting your hand.
---Protecting your hand, redux.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
Over a short sample, villain is running 40/17 with a postflop aggression of almost 11.
SB: $106.45
Pokey (BB): $169.25 UTG: $102.25
MP: $157.05 CO: $100.00 BTN: $461.15
Preflop: Pokey is dealt J J (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $1.00, CO folds, BTN calls $1.00, SB folds, Pokey raises to $7.00, MP folds, BTN calls $6.00
Flop: ($15.50) 2 9 7 (2 Players)
Pokey bets $15.00, BTN raises to $30.00, Pokey calls $15.00
I bet my overpair expecting villain to fold; instead he minraises. I smooth-call, intending to check-raise a safe turn.
Turn: ($75.50) 3 (2 Players)
Pokey checks, BTN bets $45.00, Pokey raises all-in to $132.25, BTN folds Uncalled bet of $87.25 returned to Pokey
The good news is that I still have an overpair. The bad news is that the board is ridiculously drawy now. I check, knowing that this opponent simply cannot resist the opportunity to push me off my hand. After he makes his bet, however, I am unwilling to see a river card -- with well over half the deck as scare cards, I can't trust myself to make the right decision there. Instead, I put it all in the middle, expecting an improper call from any solid draw or strong 9, and a fold from everything else. Villain folds, and I snap off a large turn bluff, picking up a big pot uncontested.
Pot Size: $165.50 ($3 Rake)
On a less wet board I might have gone for a smaller check-raise to gain value; as it stands, I need to protect my hand from an increasingly unpleasant board. This is the kind of opponent who puts monsters under my bed; knowing that, I bet all-in to prevent an extremely expensive FTOP mistake on the river.
---Protecting your hand, part III.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
SB: $148.05 BB: $101.80
Pokey (UTG): $145.40 MP: $78.10
CO: $207.80 BTN: $238.60
Villain in this hand has good stats, if a bit on the nitty side: 19/13 preflop with a 2.5 average aggression postflop. We don't tangle much, but sometimes it's inevitable.
Preflop: Pokey is dealt A A (6 Players)
Pokey raises to $4.00, MP folds, CO calls $4.00, 2 folds, BB calls $3.00
Obvious.
Flop: ($12.50) K 2 Q (3 Players)
BB checks, Pokey bets $9.00, CO folds, BB calls $9.00 Value bet hoping for a call from a good K.
Turn: ($30.50) 2 (2 Players)
BB bets $22.00, Pokey raises all-in to $132.40, BB calls all-in for $66.80 Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to Pokey
A very important turn: that 2 just counterfeited KQ and almost surely didn't help villain in any case (good news). There are now two flush draws on the board (bad news). Villain has bet into me, indicating something strongish (bad news). My hand is quite strong despite that (good news). If villain is drawing he's only got one more card for a suckout (good news). I make a pot-sized reraise to end this farce: villain is likely to fold here, but if he calls he'll still be behind most of the time.
River: ($208.10) 8 (2 Players - 2 All-In) Pot Size: $208.10 ($3 Rake)
BB had T K (a flush, King high) and WON (+$103.30)
Pokey had A A (two pair, Aces and Twos) and LOST (-$101.80)
Villain calls and sucks out on the river, but when the money went in he was far behind. I lost the hand, but I won the Sklansky bucks: my play was superior to his. After all, when the money went in the pot I had a slightly greater than 77% chance of winning the whole thing. Bad luck but good play -- hey, that's just poker.
---Even if you're ahead, sometimes it's -EV to bet.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
SB: $100.85 BB: $47.20
Pokey (UTG): $149.65 MP: $106.50
CO: $42.35 BTN: $83.50
SB is a maniac: 87/50 preflop, 1.6 average aggro postflop.
Preflop: Pokey is dealt A J (6 Players)
Pokey raises to $4.00, 3 folds, SB calls $3.50, BB folds Flop: ($9) J A 4 (2 Players)
SB checks, Pokey bets $6.00, SB calls $6.00
Pure value bet, hoping villain plays back. He doesn't.
Turn: ($21) 2 (2 Players)
SB checks, Pokey bets $10.00, SB calls $10.00
Weak bet to induce a raise. He doesn't. This is worrisome: when an aggressive player slows down, it's time to get frightened.
River: ($41) T (2 Players)
SB bets $20.00, Pokey calls $20.00
The inevitable scare card hits and villain bets it. Villain wins at showdown about 36% of the time, so the odds are strong that this is just a bluff. That means my hand is best more than 50% of the time. Despite this, I cannot profitably raise -- villain will almost never fold a better hand and almost never call with a worse hand, so even though I am ahead more than half the time, if I bet it will be -EV, winning me the same amount of money most of the time and losing me more on those unusual occasions when I'm behind.
Pot Size: $81.00 ($3 Rake)
SB had 4 T (two pair, Tens and Fours) and LOST (-$40.00)
Pokey had A J (two pair, Aces and Jacks) and WON (+$38.00)
Moral of the story: aggression is good as a general rule, but being overly and blindly aggressive is -EV. Only bet when there's profit in it.
---Checking to induce a bluff from an aggressive opponent.
Opponent is 42.4/10.6/1.6, steals 16% of the time and LOVES to float flops.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
SB: $114.60
Pokey (BB): $183.55 UTG: $329.40
CO: $100.85 BTN: $160.20
Preflop: Pokey is dealt A Q (5 Players)
2 folds, BTN raises to $3.50, SB folds, Pokey raises to $15.00, BTN calls $11.50
With a premium hand I mix it up by reraising instead of calling, trying to get the upper hand.
Flop: ($30.50) A T 5 (2 Players) Pokey bets $25.00, BTN calls $25.00
Standard continuation bet, combined with a standard float from villain.
Turn: ($80.50) 9 (2 Players)
Pokey checks, BTN bets all-in for $120.20, Pokey calls $120.20
I "show weakness" and villain fires all-in. I was surprised to see just how strong his hand actually was.
River: ($320.90) 3 (2 Players - 1 All-In) Pot Size: $320.90 ($3 Rake)
BTN had A J (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$160.20) Pokey had A Q (a pair of Aces) and WON (+$157.70)
This hand shows another example of NOT betting to maximize pot size. It also shows the importance of knowing what story your betting line is telling -- in this case, I spoke of weakness to induce a bluff, so I had to call the resulting bet.
---Not telling a consistent story.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
SB: $191.95
Pokey (BB): $144.45 UTG: $444.30
CO: $43.40 BTN: $87.40
I've been struggling on the table, and I've recently lost some big hands. Villain is super-bad: 68/9 preflop, went to showdown 37% of the time and won there 39% of the time.
He's sloppy and lucky, and he's got money I want.
He's sloppy and lucky, and he's got money I want.