Global Data-processing and Forecasting System, including Emergency

3.1.3.1 The Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) was the main component of the WWW system that operated real-time and non-real-time systems and services for producing meteorological analyses and forecasts, in continuous cycles around the clock. Its network of operational meteorological centres was part of a global early warning system for meteorological and environmental hazards.

3.1.3.2 Congress, with the view to realizing greater benefits from numerical weather prediction (NWP) system developments, integrating real-time observational data for tracking and forecasting of hazards, requested the Commission for Basic Systems to increase its attention to applications of NWP systems, particularly in very short-range forecasting (up to 12 hours). Congress further

emphasized that Members should continue investing in data-processing and use of NWP products as indispensable tools for weather forecasting, contributing directly to the WMO Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme.

3.1.3.3 Congress noted the development in Roshydromet (Russian Federation) of a list of standards related to techniques of preparation and delivery of short-range weather forecasts. Congress requested the Commission for Basic Systems to consider those standards and, if appropriate, develop guidelines on short-range forecasting.

Severe Weather Forecasting

3.1.3.4 Congress noted with satisfaction the significant development and progress of the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP), from concepts to the first SWFDP regional subproject, implemented in the south-eastern region of Africa in 2006, focusing on heavy precipitation and strong winds, and involving three global producing centres (ECMWF, Met Office UK, NCEP (USA)), three regional centres (RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion, ACMAD) and five national centres (NMCs Botswana, Madagascar, Mozambique, United Republic of Tanzania and Zimbabwe).

3.1.3.5 The participating National Meteorological and Hydrological Services recognized and appreciated the support from the global and regional centres.

3.1.3.6 Congress, noting the importance of accurate and timely severe weather warnings for Members and that if the SWFDP in south-eastern Africa was successful, decided that its concept should be expanded and implemented throughout RA I and to other WMO Regions especially in developing countries. In that regard, Congress requested the Commission for Basic Systems to consider the possibility of implementing similar projects in Africa and the South Pacific Islands.

3.1.3.7 Congress agreed that the existing SWFDP would have to be evaluated, based on regular reviews of the status of the project’s implementation as well as the specific benefits that were being realized by users. In that regard, it urged the participating NMHSs to provide timely feedback and on a routine basis so that a comprehensive evaluation could be performed immediately following the end of the demonstration phase (November 2007) to determine which aspects of the demonstration phase, and how those aspects, would be continued as part of operational severe weather forecasting programmes of the NMHSs of that region.

3.1.3.8 Congress was informed by the participating NMHSs that the SWFDP was benefiting very significantly to the weather forecasting and severe weather warnings programmes, in terms of both accuracy and timeliness of warnings, as well as other application areas in their countries, through greater and more effective use of existing products from global and regional GDPFS Centres. In addition, the project was facilitating the training of many forecasters. Broad support for the project was heard, in particular the recognition of Members working together to achieve important goals of WMO, especially for developing countries and least developed countries.

3.1.3.9 Congress also noted that the project was contributing significantly and in a very concrete way to capacity-building in the NMHSs through better understanding and use of numerical weather prediction and ensemble prediction system (EPS) products, and was providing the opportunity to improve the interaction with Disaster Management and Civil Protection Authorities, thereby supporting the goal of increasing the visibility of NMHSs. In addition, it recognized the role of the GDPFS in enhancing the return on WMO investment in observational and communication systems.

3.1.3.10 Congress was informed about the “Meteoalarm” service of EUMETNET where current

weather warnings of many European countries were integrated into a single Web-based source of information, located at http://www.meteoalarm.eu. It was emphasized that while warnings were improved from more effective use of all supporting data and data-processing and forecasting

systems, the international exchange of warning information, especially among neighbouring countries, increased the benefits to the safety and security of populations.

Numerical Weather Prediction Strategy for Developing Countries

3.1.3.11 Congress agreed that an overarching vision for such a NWP strategy should be:

“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”

3.1.3.12 In implementing such a strategy, Congress emphasised the need to assess the forecast production infrastructure as an end-to-end process, from observation to service delivery, to ensure that any significant shortfalls interfering with the desired results were addressed and remedied. That would include, for example, ensuring adequate telecommunications to support the timely flow of critical observation and forecast information, and adequate local data-processing and display capabilities to support the forecast and warning process. In addition, training was required to effect capacity-building and further implementation of advancing technologies in developing countries and least developed countries.

3.1.3.13 Congress recommended that Centres running global NWP models facilitate the

acquisition of boundary conditions required by NMCs to enable them to run Limited Area Models matching their operational requirements. Congress also emphasized the need for NWP Centres, for example RSMCs, to disseminate their products to NMHSs of countries covered by their models’ domains and to work in consultation with NMHSs to further develop and propagate the benefits of NWP systems into neighbouring regions.

3.1.3.14 Congress endorsed the organizing concept of a “consortium” of participating Centres;

Members should systematically consider using that approach to share expertise, knowledge and resources, building upon a common regional NWP model to accelerate progress in improvements of the model and the use of products, in a sustainable way.

Long-range Forecasting

3.1.3.15 Noting that Fourteenth Congress had agreed that a reliable operational global long-

range forecasting (LRF) system should include three types of centres: Global Producing Centre (GPC), Regional Climate Centre (RCC) and National Meteorological Centre (NMC), Congress appreciated that the Commission for Basic Systems at its 2006 extraordinary session, held in Seoul, Republic of Korea, from 9 to 16 November 2006, had recognized nine official GPCs (Melbourne, Montreal, Beijing, Toulouse, Tokyo, Seoul, Exeter, Washington and ECMWF) that met the requirements for GPCs, including an agreed minimum list of global LRF products. Congress requested that those products be made available to as many RCCs and NMCs as possible for the purpose of enabling them to perform their tasks. Congress encouraged other centres producing global LRF to work at achieving the criteria for GPC designations.

3.1.3.16 Congress requested collaboration between the Commission for Basic Systems and the Commission for Climatology to develop the minimum set of functions and services required of Regional Climate Centres, in order to support their official designation and inclusion in the Manual

on the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (WMO-No. 485), Volume I – Global

Aspects. As well, ongoing coordination was required to ensure that operational products from the GPCs met the requirements for seasonal forecasting services provided by RCCs and NMHSs.

3.1.3.17 Given the anticipated improvements in skill of LRF by using a multi-model ensemble

approach, Congress agreed that some GPCs of LRF could serve as collectors of global LRF data to build multi-model ensembles, and requested that standards for multi-model ensemble products be developed. Congress noted that ECMWF was already disseminating multi-model ensemble

products based on Met Office UK, Météo-France and ECMWF LRF model output (EURO SIP) and that GPC Seoul and GPC Washington had agreed to explore the use of multi-model ensembles for long-range forecasting.

3.1.3.18 Congress noted that some Regional Climate Centres and National Meteorological

Centres would need assistance for training users (or other trainers), and requested Global Producing Centres to identify and provide suitable experts for interpretation and use of GPC LRF products, verification techniques, for example local verification of RCC-generated products and applications.

Probabilistic Forecasting and Ensemble Prediction Systems

3.1.3.19 Congress requested that developments continued on the application of EPS-based

outputs, including training on usage and capacity-building in NMHSs, as well as development of user requirements for uncertainty information in weather forecasts and warnings, and in support of decision-making that depended importantly on infrequently occurring meteorological conditions.

3.1.3.20 Congress further encouraged EPS-producing centres to provide to Members access to as many as possible of their EPS products relevant to severe weather forecasting, such as probabilistic charts of meteorological parameters, “EPS-grams” (time series) of EPS outputs, or indices such as the “Extreme Forecast Index” developed at ECMWF. Congress expressed appreciation for the provision of location-specific products such as the EPSgrams by ECMWF to WMO Members and took note of the current capabilities of some Members for running nested EPS with very high resolution to better represent the probability of occurrence of local severe weather events. Congress encouraged Members to use those products and requested them to provide feedback to the producing centres.

3.1.3.21 Congress emphasized the continuing need for training and capacity-building measures on the use of EPS products and probabilistic forecasting at many NMHSs in order to realize the benefits, especially for developing countries.

Environmental Emergency Response Activities

3.1.3.22 Congress noted with satisfaction that the specialized application of atmospheric

transport and dispersion modelling in environmental emergency response was well established with eight RSMCs (Beijing, Obninsk, Tokyo, Montreal, Washington, Melbourne, Exeter, Toulouse) of the GDPFS that were in 24/7 readiness to support NMHSs and the International Atomic Energy Agency for response to nuclear incidents. Congress supported extending the programme to include response to non-nuclear incidents or hazards, such as chemical incidents, smoke from large fires, gas and ash emissions from volcanic eruptions, or other airborne hazards.

3.1.3.23 Congress stressed the importance of regular exercises to maintain effective emergency response, in particular to be led by the RSMCs with the participation of the relevant NMHSs.

3.1.3.24 Congress noted that many countries had started or were exploring the possibility of

renewing their nuclear energy programmes and therefore it would be wise for WMO and NMHSs to be better prepared to provide guidance on meteorological and hydrological aspects of planning, siting, and operating nuclear power plants. It was noted that WMO Technical Note No. 170 entitled “Meteorological and Hydrological Aspects of Siting and Operation of Nuclear Power Plants” was outdated and incomplete, as it had been completed before the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. Congress noted that it was a matter that would require the cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and requested the Secretary-General to correspond with that Agency. Congress also noted that several technical commissions could be involved in the updating of the technical document.

3.1.3.25 Recognizing the importance and urgency of the necessary work in that regard, indeed as a measure that contributed to disaster risk reduction, Congress emphasized the need to augment the Secretariat resources to effectively undertake the work in a timely fashion.

3.1.3.26 To effectively deliver meteorological support to environmental emergency response,

Congress recommended that the Commission for Basic Systems continue to build cooperation with relevant international organizations that had the lead responsibilities for coordinating or managing public safety in relation to airborne or waterborne hazards, for example the International Atomic Energy Agency for radiological hazards.

3.1.3.27 Congress expressed its appreciation to the representative of the Comprehensive

Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) for making a presentation on the successes of the cooperation between the two organizations, and highlighted the exchange of information and sharing of scientific and technical expertise that had taken place. Congress endorsed that collaboration and noted that such occasions to collaborate with other international organizations, in particular where high-quality meteorological data observations and information supporting broad societal benefits were exchanged, were essential.

3.1.3.28 Congress noted that the collaboration with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization in atmospheric transport modelling had reached a mature stage for both the implementation of a CTBTO-WMO “backtracking” (locating the source of a detected airborne material) response system meeting CTBTO requirements, and with the same technology, the readiness of RSMCs with the capability to provide emergency backtracking service to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services upon request.

Training and Capacity-building

3.1.3.29 Congress emphasized the use of facilities and opportunities with distance training, such as the COMET (USA) programme, EUMETCal modules, and the WMO Space Programme Virtual Laboratory High Profile Training Event concept to collaborate in the development of training modules. Congress recommended that training materials must include materials and case studies relevant to varying needs of Members in different regions of the world, and that such materials be made available in different languages, with the assistance of Members.

3.1.3.30 Congress also recognized that given the dramatic technical evolution of the Global

Data-processing and Forecasting System in the recent period, a complete review of the WMO

Guide to the Global Data-processing System (WMO-No. 305) was necessary and should be

undertaken with the assistance of some experts and/or a suitable consultant.

3.1.3.31 Congress encouraged the Secretariat, with the assistance of the Commission for Basic Systems, to organize various numerical weather prediction training and capacity-building initiatives into a WMO coordinated strategy. Events organized or co-sponsored by the Secretariat should be coordinated, as much as possible, with initiatives coming directly from NMHSs, in particular those with Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres, or other agencies that were or could be opened to participants from other NMHSs, and in particular from neighboring National Meteorological Centres.

3.1.4 WWW system support activities, including the Operational Information Service