IoT IoT HARDW HARDWARE ARE DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT PLATFORMS PLATFORMS IN IN THE THE NEXT 5 NEXT 5 YEAR YEARSS The IoT is presently an emerging technology that is growing at a breathtaking pace and

impact-ing many aspects of life, as well as various industries. It is also among the top technologies on the horizon that are poised to change life as we know it today. In the space of just a decade, the number of heterogeneously connected devices is already overwhelming. In addition, millions more devices are still expected to come online over the next 5 years ( Gartner, 2015 ), which will make the interaction of humans with technology commonplace. Considering the present tech-nology trends, it would be no exaggeration to say that in the not too distant future, almost every object will be connected to the Internet, t hanks to I nternet Protocol v ersion 6 (I Pv6). This will usher in a new era of ubiquity and a new era of endless opportunities for consumers to enhance their living conditions, and for business owners to increase productivity, reduce cost, and save energy.

To a large extent, the future of the IoT will depend on the development of a variety of new opti-mized hardware platforms that will compete for the attention of the developer community. The future IoT hardware platforms are envisioned to allow developers and designers to build more effi-cient, smaller, and ultra-energy-efficient IoT devices, as well as dramatically cut the cost of produc-tion and reduce time to market. This will be driven mainly by chip miniaturizaproduc-tion, resulting from a revolution in cheap sensor technology, the affordability of Bluetooth wireless technology, and the growing ubiquity of more secure and low-power Wi-Fi technologies.

This section focuses on predicting the attributes of IoT hardware development platforms in the next 5 years. Our projections are based on the latest technological breakthroughs in chip design

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and manufacturing, and the anticipated technological developments in the chipmaking industry. We make our predictions on the same hardware features that we have considered in the previous sections.

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This section looks at the processing power of future IoT hardware development platforms, as well as discusses their memory and storage capacity.

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6.6.1.1 1 ProcesProcessing sing Power Power of of Future Future IoT IoT HardwarHardware e PlatforPlatformsms

While Intel has admitted that transistors have become almost infinitesimally small ( Paul, 2016), implying that the era of Moore’s law may be coming to an end (Green, 2015), and is now focusing on sacrificing speed for power efficiency (Paul, 2016), other companies will just not give up. For exam-ple, in an effort to push the limits of chip technology needed to power emerging technologies, an IBM-led consortium in July 2015 announced the first 7 nm node test chips in the world (Savov, 2015).

Other collaborators in the group include Samsung and SUNY Polytechnic Institute (Savov, 2015).

Processor performance requirements for connected devices depend largely on the type of sens-ing, processsens-ing, and communication needed for the target application ( Voica, 2016). For instance, some devices are designed to perform a limited amount of processing on datasets like temperature or humidity, and others are designed to handle more complicated tasks, such as video streams or high-resolution sound. Due to the diversity of IoT applications, and especially as the IoT matures in the near future, with smart devices able to perform much more complex tasks without human intervention, there may be a need for greater diversity of chip configurations than what is found in computers and smartphones. Consequently, some chip construction models are emerging. One such model is the Multi-Chip-Module (MCM), which promises low volume, high system performance, and high reliability. Another model is the System-in-a-Package (SiP), consisting of ICs with different functionalities, and it may include passive components and/or a Micro-Electro-Mechanical System (MEMS), all assembled into one package that functions as a subsystem or system (Derhacobian, 2016).

Given the foregoing, we arguably forecast that in the next 5 years, the processors in IoT hardware platforms will have the following:

1. Different architectures depending on the application.

2. One or more 32- to 64-bit cores.

3. Clock frequency from 2 GHz and above.

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6.6.1.2 .2 Memory and Memory and Storage Storage Capacity of Capacity of Future Future IoIoT Hardware T Hardware PlatformsPlatforms

The current exponential trends in capacity and price of memory and storage devices that have been consistent for more than 50 years are expected to continue into the future, even if miniaturization limits are reached. This is supported by the fact that in May 2016, researchers at IBM succeeded in storing 3 bits of data per cell using a new technology known as Phase-change Memory (PcM) (Future Timeline.net, 2016). Using PcM technology, a memory can provide high read and write speed, endure at least 10 million write cycles, and not lose data when powered off, unlike DRAM.

This remarkable achievement can provide fast and efficient storage that can take care of the expo-nential growth of data from IoT devices. In addition, in 2016 Intel and Micron released a Three-Dimensional (3D) XPoint memory, also known as Optane (Mearian, 2016). The new memory uses byte addressing, can endure write cycles 1000 times more than the traditional NAND flash, and has 1000 times faster I/Os. In the long run, Optane may replace DRAM ( Hruska, 2016).

Going by the above trend, we arguably predict that the RAM of IoT hardware platforms in the next 5 years will be from 2.5 GB and above, and the flash memory will be from 16 GB and above.

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In this section, we try to forecast the connectivity and communication interfaces of IoT hardware development platforms in the next 5 years.

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6.6.2.1 Connectivity oConnectivity of f Future Future IoIoT T Hardware Hardware Development Development PlatformsPlatforms

Reliable Internet connectivity is perhaps the most important component of the IoT. As the Internet connectivity is being extended to more and more devices through wireless mobile connectivity, and the complexity of connected devices is increasing by the day, the need for connected devices with more reliable Internet connectivity is becoming increasingly apparent. Although the Internet of space (IoS) (Raman et al., 2016), a high-data-rate suborbital-based communication network, is still on the horizon, mobile networks such as 3G and 4G, as well as other wireless technologies like Wi-Fi will continue to play crucial roles in providing the IoT with Internet connectivity, at least in the near future.

Based on the above discussion, the connectivity of IoT hardware development platforms in the next 5 years may be forecasted as follows:

1. Most development boards will feature both Wi-Fi and cellular connectivity.

2. Some hardware platforms will start using the new Wi-Fi HaLow ( Sartain, 2016), which extends Wi-Fi into the 900 MHz band. HaLow is suited for small data payloads, has a bet-ter range than the traditional 2.4 and 5 GHz bands, and can penetrate physical barriers.

3. The mobile wireless connectivity will be 4G and 5G.

4. Some devices may use Wi-Fi-like technologies, such as White-Fi (IEEE 802.11af) or the IEEE 802.11ah (DeLisle, 2015). It is expected that these technologies will use the sub-1 GHz spectrum, which will provide long-range and low-power operation. The range of IEEE 802.11ah, in particular, is expected to be up to 1 km with data rates between 150 kbps and 8 Mbps (Tian et al., 2016; Park, 2015).

5. Some devices will also be connected via IoS networks.

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6.6.2.2 Communication Communication Interfaces Interfaces of of Future Future IoIoT T Development Development PlatformsPlatforms

While many IoT applications like wireless sensor networks (WSNs) for simple environmental moni-toring require only a limited number of interfaces for connecting a few sensors, there are other applications that will require quite a number of different I/O peripherals. In the near future, the situ-ation with regards to I/O interfaces on IoT devices is very much likely to change. As the IoT takes shape and offers endless possibilities for organizations, businesses, and services, the need for a greater diversity of peripherals will exponentially rise in order to meet the ever-increasing demands.

In the next 5 years, it is most likely that:

1. IoT devices will be used for services that will demand more user interaction through mul-timedia than ever before.

2. The speed requirements of the peripherals will be comparable to the rate at which theprocessor demands data or instructions from the memory.

3. Some interfaces may require very high bandwidths, and there will still be some whose requirements may be minimal.

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An OS usually acts as a resource manager, making it essential for managing the limited resources on some resource-constrained devices. As the deployment of IoT is increasingly becoming more cost-effective (i.e., as sensors and chips become smaller and cheaper) and the network becomes more complex in terms of diversity and number of devices (Morgan, 2015; Gil et al., 2016), more

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data-driven services will evolve in the future that may require IoT devices to run more robust and reliable RTOSs (Gaur and Tahiliani, 2015).

We therefore forecast that in the next 5 years, all IoT hardware development boards will have OS support and the OSes would:

1. Have robust security capabilities.

2. Be scalable, such that they can be used on different devices.

3. Be modular, so that developers can choose components based on their system requirements.

4. Support most connectivity standards, such as Wi-Fi and Bluetooth.

5. Support most cellular standards, like 3G, 4G, LTE, and 5G.

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How much battery energy is consumed by an IoT de vice depends significantly on the radio t rans-mitter type, protocols used for communications, the sensors, and the processor type ( Vujovic et al., 2015). Examples of batteries commonly used in small IoT devices include lithium, nickel, and alkaline batteries. Most of these battery chemistries offer very low self-discharging characteris-tics, making them well suited for long service intervals. Nonetheless, one of the most important things to consider when designing and deploying IoT devices for certain applications is the bat-tery life. This is because replacing batteries in the field is not economically viable, especially if the replacement will involve thousands or even millions of devices. Achieving ultra-low-power consumption and extending the battery life of IoT devices are active areas of research ( Somov and Giaffreda , 2015).

With that in mind, we arguably predict that in the next 5 years,

1. A battery life of upto 10 years and above is attainable.

2. The new Wi-Fi HaLow that is also aimed at reducing power needs will greatly lower the power consumption of the new IoT hardware platforms that will use the technology.

3. Future IoT hardware platforms will use energy harvesting schemes, such as solar and ther-mal gradients to charge batteries onboard.

4. Future IoT devices may also be powered by the ambient signals from Wi-Fi routers, a novel technology developed by engineers at the University of Washington (Langston, 2015).

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In general, a relationship exists between the size and the cost of electronic devices. As devices become smaller, their prices normally increase. But when the technology matures and the process of miniaturization is fully automated, prices begin to decline (B’Far, 2005). In this section, we predict the size and cost of future IoT devices in the next 5 years.

Over the last few years, the idea of shrinking transistor sizes onto microcontrollers and computer processors to enhance performance as well as to reduce size and cost has become more complex following the twilight of Moore’s law. Recently, a group of researchers in a French microelectronic laboratory has developed a new process for stacking thin layers of semiconductor material with transistors while the performance of the transistors remains intact (Morra, 2016). The result is a landmark achievement that led to the development of monolithic 3D chips, which behave like a single device, having the same size as the two-dimensional (2D) chips, consuming less power and generating less heat. Furthermore, research advances in a number of areas other than IC dies are proving to be highly promising in the continued progress toward miniaturization ( Mehta et al., 2016; Pinkerton, 2002 ). A notable example is the use of flex PCB and High-Density Interconnect (HDI) PCBs to manufacture smaller, but yet sophisticated IoT wearable devices, ranging from med-ical implants and hearing aids to fitness trackers (Bahl, 2016).

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The bottom line, however, is that several electronics devices have reached a near-optimal form factor already, and stretching further to get a cutting-edge miniaturization will be very expensive (B’Far, 2005). Additionally, a major trade-off in miniaturization is whether the market will be able to support the cost. There is no doubt that markets like the military, medical electronics, and aero-space can support the cost. However, in several IoT applications, where devices are expected to be disposable or too numerous to count, this will certainly be an issue, at least in the short run.

Having said that, we arguably make the following forecasts (for the next 5 years) for both the size and cost of future IoT hardware development boards, depending on whether they are microcon-troller-based boards or SBCs:

• The sizes of these devices in terms of length, width, and height will be approximately 25× 18× 3 mm and 60× 45× 15 mm for microcontroller-based boards and SBCs, respectively.

• The prices of microcontroller-based boards and SBCs will be about $5 and $18, respectively.

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Virtually any thing that is connected to other things and accessible over the Internet is prone to cyber attacks. Software security alone has proven inadequate to protect devices against many known threats (Hanna, 2016), such as denial of service (DoS), distributed denial of service (DDoS), malware, espio-nage, tampering, and hijacking. Therefore, the future of IoT security and privacy will depend on the ability of the various hardware vendors to implement reliable security at the hardware level. This can be achieved by including an encryption chip, also known as a Security Controller (SC), in the hardware. The SC performs a defined set of cryptographic operations using cryptographic keys that are securely stored in the SC (Lesjak et al., 2015). The operations include identifying unauthorized access and detecting tampering. If tampering or microprobing is detected, the chip should cause a tamper response that will result in an immediate zeroization (Moritz et al., 2015). The SC should also be resistant against any side-channel attacks like Differential Power Analysis (DPA). Based on the foregoing, we can arguably predict that virtually all the IoT hardware development platforms that will be developed in the next 5 years will have encryption chips onboard.

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6.7 TIMELINE TIMELINE OF OF EVOLUTION EVOLUTION OF OF THE THE Io IoT T HARDW HARDWARE ARE