Hyperloop Cost Analysis

The Hyperloop capital costs will have contributions from the same categories as the HSR system, with relevant adjustments to the cost based on system design.

5.2.1 Tube/Pylon Route

Unlike the HSR, which has a “Permanent Way” associated cost, the Hyperloop will have a cost for the construction and assembly of the steel tubes and pylons. Machined steel was specified as the tube material, with roughly 20 mm thickness. Medium carbon steel used in Australia costs roughly $1300 per tonne, as of 2012 (AZOM, 2012). Assuming a uniform thickness of 20 mm and a density of 7870 kg/m³, the cost per kilometre of the machined steel tube is $1.05M.

Applying a scaling factor of ‘3’ to account for the cost of machining and installing the steel tubes, the cost per metre is roughly $6350. Given a total route length of 1002 km, this equates to a total tube cost of $6.4 billion.

The other major cost associated with the tubes is the magnetic levitation running throughout the entire route length and the short stretches of propulsion before and after each station. The cost of Maglev train systems typically ranges between $35 and $40M per kilometre; however, this includes the cost of the track, the rolling stock and a variety of other costs (Monorails Australia, 2016). It is difficult to determine how much the magnetic levitation and propulsion will cost when incorporated into the tube. The Alpha study suggests that the cost of the propulsion stator is $35M per kilometre (Musk, 2013). Due to the low drag environment of the tube, only a small stretch of propulsion is required, whereas levitation is required throughout the whole length of the tube. Assuming that the propulsion costs significantly more than basic magnetic levitation, I will estimate that the cost per kilometre of the magnetic system is roughly

$15M per kilometre. This equates to a total cost of $15 billion. This is a highly sensitive value

71 that was based primarily on engineering judgement, and will need to be developed further in the future.

Given that there is no available cost alternative for the concrete pylons, the cost of $126,500 per pylon and 30 metre spacing, outlined in the Alpha study, will be used. This equates to a total pylon cost of $4.2 billion. Thus, the route, assuming the cost of expansion joints is relatively negligible, will cost approximately $22.4 billion (Musk, 2013).

5.2.2 Tunnels

Due to flow considerations, the HSR tunnels need to be significantly larger than the train cross-sectional area, typically around 8 metre diameter (Thompson, 2011); however, the Hyperloop tunnels only need to house the Hyperloop tubing, roughly 6.6 metre diameter. It was therefore assumed that the Hyperloop tunnelling will cost 15% less than the HSR. Thus, the cost per kilometre of tunnelling is $153M. Assuming an equivalent tunnelling distance of 51.3 kilometres, this equates to $7.8 billion (AECOM, 2013).

5.2.3 Structures

Due to the pylons supporting and elevating the tube, no bridges or viaducts are necessary for the Hyperloop route; hence, I assume there is no associated structures cost in addition to the pylons.

5.2.4 Earthworks

The earthworks associated with the Hyperloop would likely be different to those associated with the HSR system; however, with no additional resources to determine the cost difference, I will assume they are equivalent. Therefore, there are $7 billion of earthworks required for the Hyperloop route. This will likely be an over-estimation of the cost because the pylons should reduce the amount of earthworks, but it would be largely guesswork to determine the degree of cost reduction.

5.2.5 Civil Works

The civil works associated with the Hyperloop may be different to those associated with the HSR system; however, with no additional resources to determine the cost difference, I will assume they are equivalent. Accordingly, the cost of Hyperloop civil works will be $3.6 billion.

5.2.6 Signalling & Communication

The signalling and communication systems in the Hyperloop system will be different to those incorporated into the HSR system; however, given that signalling and communication systems are fairly standard, I will assume the cost is equivalent for both systems. Therefore, there will be $0.9 billion associated with signalling and communication.

5.2.7 Power

Solar panels and battery storage are required to power the magnetic propulsion and levitation.

The Alpha study suggests that the solar array and associated electronics will cost $270M (Musk, 2013). Extrapolating this by distance to the Australian Hyperloop system, the expected solar array cost is $480M. However, the power demand of my system is far greater than the Alpha study proposal because the magnetic levitation system will need to be powered for the entire tube length. Assuming the additional power sink will require approximately five times the power supply, this equates to a total cost of $2.4 billion. This is a highly sensitive value that was based primarily on engineering judgement and will need to be developed further in the future.

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5.2.8 Stations

The stations and facilities associated with the HSR system cost $4 billion. The Hyperloop will need similar stations and facilities; however, there will likely need to be greater security due to the highly volatile, low pressure environment of the tube, and vacuum pumps will need to be installed at each station to allow capsule depressurisation. I assume a 25% increase in the cost of stations and facilities, such that the total cost will be $5 billion. This is a highly sensitive value that was based primarily on engineering judgement and will need to be developed further in the future.

5.2.9 Land Acquisition

The land acquisition associated with the Hyperloop should be equivalent to the HSR system as the route is assumed to be identical. Hence, the cost of Hyperloop land acquisition will be

$1.9 billion.

5.2.10 Capsules

The Alpha study suggests that each capsule will cost $1.15M, with the air bearing cost neglected. To accommodate the large volume of commuters expected to use the system, and assuming a capsule departs every 30 seconds, roughly 250 capsules are required to service the route. This equates to a total capsule cost of $290M. The number of capsules was based on a rough estimation and will need further refinement in the future; however, the cost of the capsules is low relative to other components of the system.

5.2.11 Development

The HSR system requires $4.8 billion for development. The Hyperloop is an untested, immature technology and will therefore require substantially more development. The cost of this development will likely be spread between a variety of companies attempting to develop the Hyperloop; however, the Australian Hyperloop will still need specific development, which I assume to be roughly four times the HSR system development. Hence, the Hyperloop will require $20 billion for development. This is a highly sensitive value that was based primarily on engineering judgement and will need to be developed further in the future.

5.2.12 Cost Summary

Table 25 summarises the infrastructure and non-infrastructure capital costs associated with the Hyperloop system.

Table 25: Hyperloop Cost Summary

Cost Category Cost (Billion AUD)

Tube/Pylon Route 25.6

73 There is a large degree of uncertainty in the Hyperloop cost estimation, particularly in the tube costs, earthworks, power supply, stations and development. Hence, I will apply a -30% to +50%

uncertainty range on the cost. Therefore, the cost of the Hyperloop system should be between

$52.2 and $111.8 billion.

One may argue that the uncertainty range should only be applied to the uncertain items in the Hyperloop budget and the rest should have the same uncertainty range as the HSR. However, this will not make a significant difference because the HSR-similar items add up to only $12 billion, or 15% of the total cost estimate.