Hypotheses and Expectations on Transition to Adulthood Patterns 25!

Having described recent comparative research, and the potential role of welfare states and

family ties in the transition to adulthood, it is possible now to develop some hypotheses

concerning different patterns in life course trajectories across countries, but also different

trends over time. With the help of Table 1.1 distinct groups of countries are identified,

and their characteristics concerning welfare regimes, cultural aspects, transition patterns

Table 1.1 Countries characteristics and typical patterns of transition to adulthood. Group of Countries Welfare State School-to-Work Transition Culture & Family Ties Transition Patterns to Adulthood Expected Changes over Time Scandinavian Countries Welfare rights and benefits granted as individual entitlements; Unemployment benefits available for young people.

High completion rates of tertiary education

and widespread vocational training promote easier labor

market access

Weak family ties that imply individual's priority over the

family.

High importance of young people's autonomy, very

early home leaving and union formation (mostly

cohabitation).

Minimum delay in all the events of the transition to adulthood;

Age at home leaving not influenced by the

achievement of economic independence, so even a postponement of the entrance into the labor market won't increase the dependency from

the family of origin.

Liberal Countries Strong market orientation, loosely regulated labor market; Means-tested benefits oriented to individuals. Weak regulation of the labor market supports an early completion of schooling and easy

access to the labor market; However labor markets are characterized by high

instability.

Weak family ties, strong focus on self-reliance and

autonomy

Early home leaving, early school completion and

entry into the labor market. This facilitates early family formation.

Limited postponement in the age at home leaving and at entry into the job market. Possible larger delay in family formation due to increased instability of

Table 1.1 Continued. Group of

Countries Welfare State School-to-Work Transition Culture & Family Ties Transition Patterns to Adulthood Expected Changes over Time

Continental Europe Welfare transfers oriented to families. Strong vocational education system; Easy access to the labor market even if at

later ages.

Stronger family ties than in Liberal

and Scandinavian countries, that are

reinforced by family-oriented welfare transfers.

Later age at school completion and entrance into the labor market; Later

age at home leaving and achievement of economic

independence, but with more stability to form a family in a short time.

More delay in the timing of social and economic independence, and the postponement of

economic and employment stability

may be a cause for delayed home leaving.

Southern Europe Weak welfare state transfers, mainly family- oriented.

Late age at school completion and no vocational training hinder an easy access to stable jobs; Strong

senior worker protection.

Strong family ties; Family is the locus

of support for young people.

Very late age at home leaving; Having a stable job

and economic self- sufficiency are important conditions to form a family,

so also age at union formation and parenthood

are higher than in other countries.

Increased instability of labor market and expansion of education cause a strong delay in the entrance into the labor market and in the

achievement of independence; Consequent strong delay

in home leaving and family formation.

Based on country characteristics and previous findings in the literature, the following hypotheses can be formulated and the aim of this work is to test them through an empirical investigation:

1. Differences across countries

Events like the entry into the labor market, and the achievement of social and economic independence from the family of origin happen earlier in Scandinavian and liberal countries rather than in continental Europe. Also, these events take place at a much older age in Southern Europe.

2. Changes over time

Given the expansion of education, and the increasing economic instability, there has been a delay in the entry into the labor market, a delayed exit from the parental home, and a delayed financial self-sufficiency among young adults in the last three decades. However, this postponement is expected to be greater where welfare state transfers to young people are weaker and family ties stronger (i.e. greatest in Southern Europe and smallest in Northern Europe).

3. The Role of Education

The level of education of young adults and the increasing returns to education over time can have a role in the life course trajectories and their trends over time. Current evidence shows that across all developed societies young people from lower social class leave school and start working earlier (Bynner 2005; Muller and Shavit 1998). Hence, it is possible that they achieve financial independence earlier. However, low levels of

education are usually associated with unstable partnerships and unstable employment (Arts and Gelissen 2002; Blossfeld et al. 2005; Furstenberg 2008), thus increasing the risk of future poverty. Hence by their late 20s and early 30s, people with high levels of education may show a less evident postponement in the achievement of economic self- sufficiency.

4. The Role of Economic Independence to achieve Social Independence

It is possible that some people leave the parental home when they become financially self-sufficient, but it is also possible that they do it earlier (because they found a partner, or to go to college) or that they stay with parents even after they achieved financial independence. We expect to find a higher probability of not living with parents among those who achieved some sort of financial independence, even with some differences across countries and over time. In fact, we expect to find a higher proportion of people living with parents in more recent birth cohorts, especially among workers with low wages. Nonetheless we expected this increase to be more limited in Scandinavian and liberal countries, rather than continental and southern European countries. In Italy, for example, when the labor market is not working efficiently young people have their family as the locus of support given weak welfare state transfers addressed to youth. Consequently, if they are not financially independent it is more likely that they stay home with parents, while in other countries this is not necessarily the case.

The paper is structured as follows. The next section introduces the data and the methods employed in the analysis. The following two sections present the results. In the final part, we offer some concluding remarks.