• A high proportion of media and communications time is spent watching TV/films on non-TV devices such as mobile viewing, which is assumed to reach over 9% by the end of the period.
• In addition, there is high demand for IPTV. The increased demand for internet delivered audio-visual combines with an increased demand for higher definition audio-visual.
• This may mean that by 2025, almost half the connected population are watching Ultra HD TV and by 2030 the large majority, 80%, are watching Ultra HD TV. By the end of the period the migration to 8K TV has begun with 10% of people now viewing 8K audio-visual.
• The high resolution viewing, especially in later years, leads audio-visual data usage to rise to 190GB per fixed connection per month and 75 GB per connection per month, accounting for three quarters of all data usage.
• This is equivalent to 11 Ultra HD films per month over a fixed network and 4.5 Ultra HD films on a mobile device. Consumer usage
• Nearly everyone is using the internet for shopping and accessing financial services through online banking. The internet is the most regular place that people go to find out about news and find information.
Business usage
• Nearly all businesses have a NGA broadband subscription; it is assumed that 98% of large businesses and 95% of SOHOs use NGA broadband, up from 48% and 17% respectively in 2014.
• The large majority of firms are using digitally enabled software, including cloud computing and management software to improve activities such as supply chain management. Nearly all firms, 99%, have a website representing a significant increase in digitalisation for micro firms, as only 70% had a website in 2014. The increase in digitalisation has enabled B2B e-commerce and B2C e-commerce to increase over the period, with three-quarters of these firms making some sales over the internet compared to 50% in 2014.
• There has also been an increase in the number of firms allowing employees to work remotely. The increased proliferation of these technologies compared to the other scenarios has resulted in an increase in NGA broadband penetration and usage by businesses. Mobile is still used by businesses as workers as employees use tablets to work on the move.
Public sector usage
Increased online provision of public services is a key driver of world leading connectivity as people access public services online as the norm. The public sector components have been informed by a review of international benchmarks with current world leaders, such as South Korea and Denmark, and expectations of new technologies.
E-government: The central government and local councils have fully digitalised administration systems. All government departments use the same system to allow interoperability.
• This allows for activities such as fiscal management to be conducted on the same system for all government departments. Furthermore, the fiscal management system allows for real-time management and analysis to be undertaken.
• Cloud computing is also used by all departments. Using cloud computing allows for the integration of individual data centres and systems. Integrating this information also facilitates data sharing across the public sector.
• The government also offers a large range of online public services at both the local and central government levels. It is assumed that 90% of people and businesses use these services at least once a month by 2030, up from 60% currently. • The range of services includes an online citizen portal, allowing people to find information and download forms, an
online procurement system, tax system, customs clearance system, and an online immigration control system. • Local councils will also be providing information and services, such as reporting issues, and applying for services and
tax changes. There is a move towards mobile government, which will allow citizens to use services such as real time intelligent public safety services.
E-health: Near 100% digitalisation of messages is assumed by the end of the period among healthcare professionals, making NHS Scotland almost entirely paperless.
• The day to day record keeping and management of health activities is conducted via an online portal which allows both practitioners and patients to access the health records. Community workers/local doctors are able to transmit high resolution images, such as CT scans, to hospitals and specialists without the patient needing to travel long distances.
• All elderly people requiring non-hospital care are cared for using telecare and telemedicine devices, such as devices to detect lack of activity, falls and manage medication. Sophisticated telemonitoring devices are used to report on patient’s diagnostic information. These devices allow for real time monitoring of a patient’s health and can provide advance warning of a potential issue. For example, a device can be used to send regular updates on a patient’s cholesterol. • As a result, Scotland develops an international reputation as a centre for the research, development, prototyping and
delivering of innovative telehealth and telecare services and products at scale.
E-education: Digital technologies are used to improve the quality of primary and secondary education as well as improve accessibility to tertiary education.
• In primary and secondary education, ICT is incorporated into the content and delivery of education materials, in teacher training, evaluation, monitoring and administration of the education system.
• Nearly all students have a device such as a tablet or laptop which allows teachers to offer customised learning tools and feedback to each individual student and helps teachers to track a student’s progress.
• Students also use a large number of programmes and applications that teach, evaluate performance and provide feedback. The increased level of information over a student’s progress helps parents to become more informed about their child’s progress.
• In the tertiary sector, there are many virtual and traditional universities that offer online courses. This allows people to complete courses, professional qualifications and degrees online. Enabling distant learning will make it easier for people to study part time courses at institutions other than their local one, thus improving the average quality of education. Online courses will also be accessible to people outside the country, thus increasing the potential for extra exports from the education sector in Scotland.
Internet of Things
• Using the high demand scenario forecasted by Ofcom137 to inform the development of connected devices, there are approximately 130 million connected devices in Scotland. The use of IoT devices is widespread by large business, SMEs and consumers. All these groups are increasingly using the devices; using Cisco forecasts to inform usage per connection results in increased data usage from 0.06GB per connection per month to 0.29GB per connection per month by 2020.138 • This includes nearly all cars being connected, smart meters in homes, monitoring devices in many machines and consumer
products. There are enough devices per person/household to allow the connected devices to communicate with each other and make decisions.
• The public sector is also making use of IoT technology through Smart Cities and in the provision of public services, such as every communal bin having a sensor in to detect how full it is. This information can be used to optimise the public services whilst reducing costs, and improve the general environment through reduced littering.
Penetration
• Both fixed and mobile penetrations are defined as the number of subscriptions per 100 people. Penetration will increase so that nearly all people have access to the internet.
• For mobile penetration, this scenario assumes a penetration of unique subscribers of 99%, while the number of households with fixed broadband is 98%. Fixed penetration is assumed to reach this level by 2025.
• There is almost no digital divide in terms of access to the internet. • Penetration and usage in urban and rural areas is very similar.
137
A report for Ofcom by Aegis spectrum engineering and Machina Reseach, 2014, M2M application characteristics and their implications for spectrum.
138
Figure 69: Fixed and mobile penetration
Source: Deloitte analysis
Devices
• Smartphones fully replace feature phones. Smartphone penetration reaches slightly over 100%. The number of tablets increases until approximately half the population owns one.
• There are approximately 1.5 smartphone/tablet connections per connected person by the end of the period. The number of smartphones in the economy helps to enable the increases in mobile usage per connection.
Figure 70: Number of smartphones and tablets
Source: Deloitte analysis
Usage profiles
• Based on the service take up discussed above, the usage profile per connection is characterised by quickly growing usage driven by more time spent watching higher definition audio-visual services and increasing digitalisation amongst
businesses, public sector and the IoT.
• By the end of the period fixed usage is 20 times larger than it is today and mobile is over 100 times larger. Figure 71: Fixed and mobile data usage per connected person
Source: Deloitte analysis
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%
Fixed penetration-subscriptions Mobile penetration-active sims
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 M il li o n s
Smartphone numbers Tablet numbers
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2014 2020 2025 2030 G B p e r p e rs o n p e r m o n th
Scenario 3 Fixed usage by service type
Other consumer IoT Public sector Business Audio-visual 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2014 2020 2025 2030 G B p e r c o n n e c ti o n p e r m o n th
Scenario 3 Mobile usage by service type
Other consumer IoT
Public sector Business Audio-visual
Scenario 2: “Building on Scotland’s world class ICT 2020”
Scenario guidelines
• Users expect to be able to access services wherever and whenever they demand it, and multi-purpose devices are common.
• Demand for digital services is characterised by high levels of usage. The digital divide has narrowed in terms of access to high speed connectivity. The digital divide is now defined by the level of confidence in using and relying on technology. • The primary use of bandwidth is for the consumption of audio-visual services with consumers accessing content wherever
they are resulting in relatively high demand for IPTV and mobile viewing.
• The number of connected devices significantly exceeds the number of people. Device growth is driven by large business and public services with smaller businesses and consumers using a few applications.
• The use of technology by businesses and technology will increase although there will be some resistance to adoption in some areas due to a worry of over reliance on technology. This will slow the rate of adoption in some areas such as cloud computing for smaller firms and in the provision of E-health.