INDIRECT ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS

Scientists estimate that 19% of the world‟s coral reefs have been lost beyond recovery and a further 20 to 40% will be lost in the next 40 years (Burke et al., 2011; Floros, 2012;

Hinrichsen, 2011).

Changes to the environment around which corals thrive are influenced by the continued barrage of environmental disturbances and the ability of coral reefs to adapt to such changes (Carpenter et al., 2008). Johnson, Ambrose, Bassett, Bowen, Crummey, Isaacson, et al.

caused by human influences or natural ecological processes”. Johnson et al. (1997:581) add that environmental degradation is defined as “any change or disturbance to the environment, land or soil perceived to be deleterious or undesirable”.

The different elements of environmental change are interlinked through a complex set of physical, chemical and biological processes (UNEP/IPEC, 2003). This interlinking means that indirect events in one environment will have an impact on other environments. Such environmental changes have led to species extinctions and reductions in biodiversity (Hall and Lew, 2009). Dive tourism is considered a high intensity tourist activity (due to its high carbon impact) making it the one of the most energy-intensive forms of marine recreational tourism with the exception of cruise ships (Klein, 2002). The main threats to coral reefs not only include direct impacts (tourism-related activities, land-based pollution, overfishing, coastal development, as discussed in Section 3.4.1), but also indirect impacts (climate change, marine pollution, industrialisation of coastal regions, and increased shipping and boating) (Burke et al., 2011; Floros, 2012; Harvey, 2000). Table 3.13 lists these individual external risks and indicates in which section they will be discussed.

Table 3.13: Indirect environmental risks

Risk Category External Risk Section

Indirect environmental risks Section 3.5.1

Climate change and coral reefs 3.5.1.1

Industrialisation of coastal regions 3.5.1.2

Increased shipping and boating 3.5.1.3

Marine pollution 3.5.1.4

Climate change and coral reefs 3.5.1.1.

Climate change has far-reaching implications for the health and functioning of coral reef ecosystems (AIMS, 2016; Anthony and Marshall, 2009; Hughes, Baird, Bellwood, Card, Connolly, Folke, et al., 2003; Roe, Adcock and Riga, 2016). The worldwide impacts of global warming⁴ are expected to increase over the coming decades. The effects of global warming are exacerbated by regional and local impacts, such as deteriorating water quality from pollution, destructive diving, increased recreational activities and fishing practices (Anthony and Marshall, 2009; Sale, Agardy, Ainsworth, Feist, Bell, Christie, et al., 2014).

When combined, these factors act together to significantly degrade the resilience of coral

4 Global warming is the result of increased CO₂ in the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and is a

key determinant of climate change (Carpenter et al., 2008; IPCC, 2013).

reefs to the point where they are unable to recover from even minor disturbances (Anthony and Marshall, 2009; Becken and Hay, 2007; Obura, 2017; Sale et al., 2014; WMO, 2010).

According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), “such interactions or potential feedbacks between global CO₂ effects and local or regional disturbances affecting reef resources heighten the urgency of abating carbon emissions” (WMO, 2010:10).

Scott, Amelung, Becken, Ceron, Dubios, Gössling, et al. (2008:180) state that “the evidence is clear that the time is now for the tourism community to collectively formulate a strategy to address what must be considered the greatest challenge to the sustainability of tourism in the 21st century, climate change”. Climate change is defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC, 2007a; 2013).

Burke et al. (2011) suggests that the state of coral in the Indian Ocean has shown significant decline as a result of anthropogenic and climate-related episodes, where as much as 68% of coral reefs are under threat. Research has indicated that climate change in ocean temperatures could effectively kill off most hard coral species by mid-century, with unknown consequences for remaining coral communities (Wilkinson, 2008). Climate change-related episodes include coral bleaching related to sea surface temperature rise, sea-level rise, ocean acidification and extreme weather events (Aronson and Precht, 2006; BBC Report, 2016c; Buddemeier et al.

2004; Buddemeier, Jokiel, Zimmerman, Lane, Carey, Bohling, et al., 2008; Aronson, 2010;

Jury, Heron, Spillman, Anthony, Dexter and Sivakumar, 2010; Mimura, Nurse, McLean, Agard, Briguglio, Lefale, et al., 2007; Wilkinson and Souter, 2008). These are discussed below.

Coral bleaching and sea surface temperature (SST) rise. Scientists observe one of the most destructive forces on coral reefs in the WIO to be coral bleaching. Research suggests that rising sea surface temperatures are the primary cause of mass coral bleaching events (Australia, 2016; Celliers and Schleyer, 2002; Cesar et al., 2003; Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999;

Obura, 2005b; Obura, 2017; Wilkinson and Souter, 2008). The high water temperatures associated with the 1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) caused a widespread bleaching event that resulted in 50% mortality of reefs in some areas of the EAME, with other events in 2004 and 2005 also contributing to coral reef degradation (McClanahan, 2004;

Obura, 2005a). Increases in thermal anomalies in sea temperatures have coincided with more

recent coral bleaching episodes, such as the recent 2015/2016 ENSO (AIMS, 2016; Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; NOAA, 2016; Obura, 2017).

Coral bleaching results from the loss of symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) from coral tissues during times of stress, leading to high mortality of corals and their reef ecosystems (Glynn, 1993; Spalding, 2004; Obura, 2005b). If SST occurs over a prolonged period, such as several weeks or months, an elevation of 1 °C to 2 °C can trigger a bleaching event (Spalding, 2004;

Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; West, 2001; West and Salm, 2003). 2015 and 2016 has seen oceans record their highest monthly temperatures, making this one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded (NOAA, 2016). Much of the record warmth for the globe in 2015 and 2016 was attributed to record warmth in the global oceans (NOAA, 2016).

Sealey-Baker (2010) states that mass bleaching events are thought to have only occurred every decade or century prior to the 1980s, but from 1982 to the present, coral bleaching events around the world have increased in frequency and are expected to increase to near-annual frequency in the next 20 to 50 years. Obura (2005b) confirms this at a regional level (East Africa and Western Indian Ocean) with his findings that rising sea surface temperatures that were catastrophic in 1998 are predicted to be repeated once every five years by approximately 2020. This is predicted to occur at lower latitudes in the Indian Ocean between 10° and 15° latitude, and further south at higher latitudes. The future of coral reefs is highly uncertain as it is unclear what the overall effects of coral mortality will be, and whether coral reefs will have the adaptive capacity to deal with the rapid change in SST rise. However, if the effects that the 2015/2016 El Niño had on Australia‟s Great Barrier Reef are any indication, where an average of 67% of coral died as a result of rising SST, they will be devastating to the world‟s largest continuous living organism (Coral Reef Studies, 2016).

The effects of climate change on coral reefs and their associated ecosystems is also a threat to the coastal communities that derive benefits from the coral reefs themselves (Burke et al., 2011; Davis and Tisdell, 1995; Gössling et al., 2008). The scuba diving industry will also be affected by coral mortality, as divers are less inclined to visit dive sites in areas where the once pristine marine environment has been degraded.

Sea-level rise (SLR). Scientists have observed the immediate effects of sea level rise (SLR) to be the submergence and increased flooding of coastal land; erosion of beaches and near-shore developments; as well as saltwater intrusion of surface waters (Ibe and Awosika, 1991;

IPCC, 2007a; Nicholls and Cazaneve, 2010). Long-term effects would include increased erosion of coastal zones; reduced ability of coral reef algae to adapt to lower levels of light;

the reduction of coastal wetlands, saltmarshes and mangroves; and changes in coastal development and infrastructure (Burke et al., 2011; Richmond, 2011). The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global sea levels will rise by between 60 centimetres to one metre by 2100 as a result of rapid ocean warming and the melting of glaciers (IPCC, 2007b). Migration away from coastal areas is expected to occur as land is reclaimed by the sea and water resources and low-lying areas become scarcer (Nicholls and Cazaneve, 2010). These physical impacts have both direct and indirect socioeconomic effects.

Research by Bigano, Bosello, Roson and Tol (2008) suggests that the biggest impact of SLR on economies will be the shift in tourism in coastal areas, disrupting the demand for recreational activities through land loss and market services. The economic impact is expected to be felt more in developing countries whose economies are more reliant on tourism, such as Africa and Southeast Asia, both of which lie in the Indian Ocean (UN HABITAT, 2008).

According to Kebede, Nicholls, Hanson and Mokrech (2012), climate-induced SLR and storm surges are set to increase the exposure of many low-lying coastal cities in Africa.

Based on climate change scenarios proposed by Kebede et al. (2012), population growth estimates and asset growth in the region will likely be affected by a sea-level rise of 43 centimetres by the year 2080, thus affecting 60% of the population in the area.

Estimates that coral grows at a range of between 1 to 10 millimetres per year suggest that reef growth rates may be able to sustain a rise in sea levels (Brown, 1997). According to Wilkinson and Souter (2008), coral growth is currently at 3.4 millimetres per year. Other sources, however, expect SLR to have a negative effect on coral reefs. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), for example, predicts that this growth rate may not be enough to counter SLR, given that the degree of ocean currents and storm surges may affect coral reef ecosystems differently in other areas. In addition, growth rates may decline due to lack of light penetrating the water‟s surface, and the coral‟s ability to adapt quickly enough to SLR, given additional stressors present such as coral bleaching and coral disease (Kleypas, McManus and Menez, 1999). Brown, Kebede and Nicholls‟s (2011) findings suggest that countries most vulnerable to climate induced SLR are coastal zones with dense

inadequate adaptive capacity (Caribbean), and increasing rates of subsidence along coastal areas (Maldives, Tuvalu).

Ocean acidification. Coral reefs are also experiencing mortality as a result of ocean acidification (Jury et al., 2010). The increase in anthropogenic CO₂ since the beginning of the industrial revolution has led to the ocean becoming more acidic. This is termed „ocean acidification‟ and has emerged as a great concern for the health of global marine ecosystems over the past few decades. Ocean acidification occurs as a result of excess carbon dioxide (CO₂) dissolving in seawater, thereby reducing the water‟s PH level, in effect making it more acidic (Baker, Glynn and Bernhard, 2008; Wilkinson and Souter, 2008). The process of calcification forms the base of the entire reef structure; however, higher CO2 concentrations in the seawater will reduce a coral‟s ability to grow, and ultimately affect its structural strength (Grimsditch and Salm, 2006). Reduced calcification in reefs decreases habitat quality and diversity, and the reefs' ability to absorb wave energy, which is instrumental for coastal protection (Hoegh-Guldberg, Mumby, Hoostem, Steneck, Greenfield, Gomez, et al., 2007). Reduced effectiveness of coral reefs can prove detrimental to coastal populations, as fish species may decline and the reefs they depend on for protection and food could be substantially diminished. This can have implications for the tourism industry, as businesses depend on dive tourists being able to experience healthy reefs. Increasing atmospheric CO2

concentrations are expected to continue to acidify the oceans, and are likely to pose a great danger to the recovery and survival of coral reefs globally, along with other marine shell-forming organisms (Richmond, 2011).

Extreme weather events. Rising global average temperature is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns. Scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as heat waves and large storms are likely to become more frequent or more intense with human-induced climate change (Burke et al., 2011; Fischer and Knutti, 2015). A recent study by Fischer and Knutti (2015) suggests that the effects of warming will vary around the world.

Weather events at the equator will become more extreme with 2 °C of warming, meaning tropical countries already dealing with frail infrastructure and poverty will experience more than 50 times as many extremely hot days and 2.5 times as many rainy ones.

Tropical storms are also predicted to change in strength and frequency, as a result of rising sea surface temperatures (Knuston, Sirutis, Garner, Veechi and Held, 2008). While the coral reefs are weakened by other climate change factors, like coral bleaching and ocean

acidification, coastlines will be susceptible to increased tropical storm waves and flooding.

When reef structures are constantly being weakened structurally by these types of stressor, they may no longer be able to resist the effects of increasingly intense and more frequent storms (Wilkinson and Souter, 2008). Strong winds associated with storms also cause the erosion of dunes and the consequent siltation destroys corals (Hoguane and Pereira, 2003).

Damaged corals will not be able to recover in time as the increased frequency of storms will continue to erode the coral reef structure, ultimately reducing reef resilience and severely affecting the surrounding marine ecosystems (Perkins, Alexander, and Nairn, 2012;

Rahmstorf, and Coumou, 2011; Wilkinson and Souter, 2008).

Industrialisation of coastal regions 3.5.1.2.

Africa‟s marine and coastal resources have traditionally supported livelihoods through artisanal fisheries and subsistence agriculture. At present, the EAME is experiencing rapid urban and industrial growth, with the development of harbours and ports, urbanisation, industrial fisheries, oil and gas exploration and tourism (Arthurton and Korateng, 2006).

Much of the region‟s natural coastal assets have supported a growth in tourism, bringing substantial economic benefits. Countries are looking to expand their coastal tourism, thus extending to eco-tourism and cultural tourism to provide opportunities for local communities.

With artisanal fisheries acting as important elements that contribute to the livelihoods of East Africans, the benefits they derive vary as most fisheries are foreign flagged vessels bound for Asian and European markets. Expansion of harbours and construction of new ports are seeing an upsurge along the EAME coastline, providing new trade routes to Asia such as the construction of the new Bagomoyo port in northern Tanzania (Feaffa.com, 2016), which is competing with the expansion of the Port of Mombasa (Mutambo, 2016b) and the newly proposed port in Lamu in the north of Kenya (Edgar, 2015).

These infrastructure developments are occurring in line with these two countries‟ railway developments, which will connect land-locked countries such as Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan and Ethiopia to trade opportunities with the rest of the world (BBC Report, 2016a). South Africa also has a proposed project, Phakisa (Operation Phakisa, 2014), which will expand its coastal EEZ for growth in mineral, gas and oil exploration and expansion of its fisheries industry.

The main concerns of this rapid urbanisation of coastal regions in the EAME are the potential

ecosystems to make provision for this industrial growth. Infrastructure developments along the coastal areas of the EAME such as those mentioned above, will no doubt contribute to coastal degradation of key marine ecosystems (such as coral reefs) through increased human-related pressures (Arthurton and Korateng, 2006; Richmond, 2011; Burke et al., 2011;

Pereira, Litulo, Leal, Fernandes, Santos, Tibiriçá, Williams, et al., 2014).

Increased shipping and boating 3.5.1.3.

Increased shipping and boating traffic results in coral reef damage around the world (BBC Report, 2016a; Golgowski, 2015; Howard, 2016; Rappler.com, 2016; Scarlet and Bandeira, 2014), and is occurring in the EAME region at increasing rates (Burke et al., 2011; Cesar et al., 2003). Boat and ships anchors cause considerable damage when dragged along reefs, often going unchecked, with few or no penalties imposed (Burke et al., 2011). Vessel groundings have a catastrophic effect on coral reef ecosystems as they can devastate very large areas of coral reefs by completely dislodging reef frameworks (Burke et al., 2011). In addition, dredging activities near coral reefs increase their likelihood of coral disease (Jones, Bessell-Browne, Fisher, Klonowski and Slivkoff, 2016). With an expected future increase in economic activity and infrastructure development of coastal regions, an expansion in shipping traffic along the EAME coast is likely to impact further on coral reefs (Oskin, 2014).

Some of the issues regarding shipping and port activities highlighted by Scarlet and Bandeira (2014) include exhaust fumes discharged to the atmosphere; oily bilge water and oil sludge from engine rooms discharged into the sea; toilet sewage discharged into the sea; garbage and galley waste discharged into the sea; dredging; ship ballast; antifouling (paint containing chemicals to impede the growth of barnacles, algae and marine organisms on ships‟ hulls);

and accidental oil spills from damaged tankers such as the Katina P accident, which spilled 72 000 tons of heavy fuel oil into Maputo Bay, Mozambique, in April 1992. Additionally, high volumes of crude oil being shipped through the Mozambique Channel sometimes result in accidental oil spills that impact on marine ecosystems along the coastline (Pereira et al., 2014).

Marine pollution: land-based pollutants, micro-plastics and floating marine 3.5.1.4.

debris

Sources of pollution are difficult to establish given that contaminants often travel a distance before they settle on or near a coral reef environment where they are likely to do harm.

Indirect environmental effects resulting from marine pollution have various sources, some of which are land-based and others which originate from the deep ocean. Research also indicates that marine pollution from increased recreational activity is exacerbating coral reef degradation as additional sediments and chemicals are added to areas around coral reefs such as grey water, engine oil and the chemicals found on boat hulls (Danovaro, Bongiorni, Corinaldesi, Giovannelli, Damiani, Astolfi, et al., 2008). Even contaminants found in sunscreen can cause coral disease, ultimately resulting in coral bleaching (Danovaro et al., 2008). Sources of marine pollution can stem from:

Industrial waste. Organic and inorganic pollutants flow into rivers or straight out to sea and are loaded with heavy metals and persistent organic compounds which are ingested by marine animals (Scarlet and Bandeira, 2014).

Shipping and port activities. Discharge of oil, sewage, garbage and dirty bilge water from ships as they pass nearby coral reefs on their way into ports and harbours (Pereira et al., 2014).

Agriculture. A significant source of marine pollution in coastal waters stems from agricultural contaminants flushed into rivers which enter the oceans. These are caught by ocean currents and settle on coral reefs (Richmond, 2011).

Marine debris. Marine debris can accumulate in oceanic gyres which are circulated in smaller clusters and carried by ocean currents. Storms can push much of the marine debris towards land, polluting the beaches and shallow coastal marine areas such as coral reefs.

Recent studies conducted at various locations around coastal urban centres in southern Mozambique revealed that plastics, cans and glass were most profuse as a result of land-based pollution that made its way into the sea (Fernandes, Chemane and Louro, 2012) while litter on remote beaches (fishing nets, plastic bottles, disused floats, etc.) originated from shipping activities (Pereira et al., 2014).

Plastics. Micro plastics (articles up to 5 mm in diameter, either manufactured or created when plastic breaks down) have become one of the most catastrophic forms of marine pollution destroying marine ecosystems (Baztan, Carrasco, Chouinard, Cleaud, Gabaldon, Huck, et al., 2014; Baztan, Jorgensen, Pahl, Thompson and Vanderlinden, 2016). Oceanic currents carry tons of plastic (predominantly thrown overboard from ships) where they

birds and mammals, often resulting in death. These are also known to accumulate around coral reefs. Marine plastic pollution causes US$13 billion worth of damage to marine ecosystems each year, according to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP, 2014).

Plastic pollution for example, has become such a major problem in Tanzania that the government has imposed a total ban on plastic bags in the country (AllAfrica, 2016).

3.5.2. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RISKS

The international tourism industry can be defined as “the sum of domestic activities that directly support the consumption of goods and services of foreign tourists in that country”

The international tourism industry can be defined as “the sum of domestic activities that directly support the consumption of goods and services of foreign tourists in that country”