This work has been published as the following paper:
CHAPTER 3: Using VMS and Logbook Data to Inform the Development and
3.5.4. Informing model validation
This analysis identified characteristic patterns (e.g. in catches, in the spatial distribution of effort) in the Isle of Man scallop fishery, which could be used to validate an IBM of fishing activity. Both strong and weak patterns should be considered (Grimm and Railsback, 2012); strong patterns are often described by data or equations, whereas weak patterns are often more qualitative. A strong pattern is something pronounced, for example in a fishery this might be spatial patterns in effort; recreating this could be a good indicator that you have captured the system well. Nevertheless, weak patterns (e.g. vessels preferring one ground over another) are less pronounced, and may be reproducible by different mechanisms in a model. If a model can reproduce multiple weak patterns it can be a strong indicator that structural realism has been achieved (Grimm and Railsback, 2012). The spatial pattern of effort is a strong pattern that characterises the Isle of Man system; activity is clustered over known fishing grounds, and the extent increases as the season progresses. In addition, there were multiple other weaker patterns that could be used to validate a model. For example, there were different proportions to trips to each fishing ground, and the proportion of the catch from each ground was not the same as the proportion of effort at each ground (i.e. the ground with the most effort was not the ground with the highest landings). There was individual variation in catches, and catches and costs varied with vessel size. Different processes in the model will influence these patterns, so recreating multiple patterns gives more confidence that the underlying mechanisms of behaviour have been realistically captured (Grimm and Railsback, 2012).
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3.6. Conclusion
This analysis demonstrated that VMS and logbook data can be used to characterise activity in a fishing system, providing the information required to inform model development, and the values and patterns required to validate such a model. In addition, questionnaire interview data provided useful contextual information to consider alongside these trends. Developing an IBM of fishing activity can have relatively substantial data requirements, but this analysis has demonstrated that in systems with vessel monitoring system and logbook recording in place, existing data could provide much of the information required to develop such a model.
3.7. Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the Department for the Environment, Food and Agriculture in the Isle of Man for providing the VMS and logbook data for analysis. We would also like to thank the Manx
fishermen who completed the questionnaire interviews, which provided valuable context to the results displayed here.
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