The initial assignments of exogenous variables are in the module CAPSIM14_INIYY.GMS.
For the reference run, preliminary adjustments to the exogenous data for sugar and sugar beet have to be made to match the definitions of the base year data.
All different expert forecasts are collected in a central array, identified by sources. The source 'CHIEF' is information which is strictly imposed whereas the other sources arte enforced through the definition of support bounds.
Expert forecasts expressed in indices have to be converted into absolute levels.
Relevant data for international trade and policy variables are assigned; some policy variables need conversion to CAPSIM definitions.
Before assigning the trend projection to the simulation year, a number of checks and corrections are made. For Part III and Part IV see Figure 9.
Figure 9: CAPSIM.GMS flowchart (Part III und Part IV)
CAPSIM module Included program Included data
PART III: Define model structure and assign base year values
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_EQS.GMS
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_INIBX.GMS • Definition model equations
• Technical definition of the model
• Set base year values
PART IV: Initial assignments of exogenous variable for simulation years
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_INIYY.GMS • Assign • trend forecasts • earlier simulations • experts data • policy variables • world market prices
CAPSIM module Included program Included data CAPSIM module Included program Included data
PART III: Define model structure and assign base year values
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_EQS.GMS
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_INIBX.GMS • Definition model equations
• Technical definition of the model
• Set base year values
PART III: Define model structure and assign base year values
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_EQS.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_EQS.GMS
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_INIBX.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_INIBX.GMS • Definition model equations
• Technical definition of the model
• Set base year values
PART IV: Initial assignments of exogenous variable for simulation years
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_INIYY.GMS • Assign • trend forecasts • earlier simulations • experts data • policy variables • world market prices
PART IV: Initial assignments of exogenous variable for simulation years
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_INIYY.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_INIYY.GMS • Assign • trend forecasts • earlier simulations • experts data • policy variables • world market prices
PART V: Simulation
Before starting the reference run or a simulation run, some model variables (e.g. variable V) have to be assigned for the simulation.
Bounds:
Default bounds are set for relevant subsets of variables. For monetary and quantity variables, specific bounds are calculated and set to model variable V.
• For reference run:
Upper and lower supports may be potentially relevant. Ad hoc supports are set for some activities. Where central supports exist, upper and lower supports are calculated.
Weights for the objective function are calculated for the importance of quantity in the MS and EU and to set penalties for first and second differences.
• Starting values for some variables
Depending on whether it is a reference or simulation run, the starting values for constants in consumer demand, input demand and processing behaviour functions are taken from the base year or from the reference run.
• Exogenous variables
Exogenous variables for the simulation year are set, calculated from trends, policy variables and other sources as described in Part II: Data input.
• For reference run
For expert forecasts with supports, a priori probabilities are specified.
Bounds on auxiliary variables are set for shifters for consumption, demand, processing, production of secondary milk and yields.
Finally the supports and the probabilities are adjusted. • Scaling factors
Scaling factors are calculated for variables to ensure that they are equal to 1 in the base year.
Finally the module CAPSIM14_MSLOOP.GMS is included, solving the Market Model with exogenous prices for all MS.
The two modules CAPSIM14_CHKS.GMS and CAPSIM14_CHKD.GMS display: • how it is possible to attain good supports
• changes from behavioural functions
Before the full EU Market Model can be started, the supports and weights for NTRD are adjusted and a free-at-border price, where appropriate, is set.
If the module CAPSIM14_EUFULL.GMS is included, the Market Model for the full EU runs.
The two modules CAPSIM14_CHKS.GMS and CAPSIM14_CHKD.GMS are reapplied for checking results. For Part V see Figure 10.
Figure 10: CAPSIM.GMS flowchart (Part V)
CAPSIM module Included program Included data
PART V: Simulation
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_CHKD.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_CHKS.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM12_MSLOOP.GMS
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_EUFULL.GMS • Initial assignments for simulation year on V
• Set default ranges for variables
• Set non default ranges for monetary and quantity variables • For reference run:
Calculating lower and upper supports and weights for objective • Set starting values for constants
• Assignments exogenous variables for the simulation year • For reference run:
Set and adjust supports and probabilities Set bounds on auxiliary variables • Calculate scaling factors
• Solve the Market Model with exogenous prices in a loop over all MS
• Check how good supports were attained
• Prepare solving full EU model with endogenous prices
%INCLUDE capsim14_chkd.gms %INCLUDE capsim14_chks.gms • Check how good supports were attained
• Decompose changes from behavioural functions • Decompose changes from behavioural functions
CAPSIM module Included program Included data CAPSIM module Included program Included data
PART V: Simulation
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_CHKD.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_CHKS.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM12_MSLOOP.GMS
%INCLUDE CAPSIM14_EUFULL.GMS • Initial assignments for simulation year on V
• Set default ranges for variables
• Set non default ranges for monetary and quantity variables • For reference run:
Calculating lower and upper supports and weights for objective • Set starting values for constants
• Assignments exogenous variables for the simulation year • For reference run:
Set and adjust supports and probabilities Set bounds on auxiliary variables • Calculate scaling factors
• Solve the Market Model with exogenous prices in a loop over all MS
• Check how good supports were attained
• Prepare solving full EU model with endogenous prices
%INCLUDE capsim14_chkd.gms %INCLUDE capsim14_chks.gms • Check how good supports were attained
• Decompose changes from behavioural functions • Decompose changes from behavioural functions
PART V: Simulation %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_CHKD.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_CHKD.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_CHKS.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_CHKS.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM12_MSLOOP.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM12_MSLOOP.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_EUFULL.GMS %INCLUDE CAPSIM14_EUFULL.GMS • Initial assignments for simulation year on V
• Set default ranges for variables
• Set non default ranges for monetary and quantity variables • For reference run:
Calculating lower and upper supports and weights for objective • Set starting values for constants
• Assignments exogenous variables for the simulation year • For reference run:
Set and adjust supports and probabilities Set bounds on auxiliary variables • Calculate scaling factors
• Solve the Market Model with exogenous prices in a loop over all MS
• Check how good supports were attained
• Prepare solving full EU model with endogenous prices
%INCLUDE capsim14_chkd.gms %INCLUDE capsim14_chkd.gms %INCLUDE capsim14_chks.gms %INCLUDE capsim14_chks.gms • Check how good supports were attained
• Decompose changes from behavioural functions • Decompose changes from behavioural functions