Part II Socio-Economic Modelling
RQ 6 Integrating Techno-Economic and Socio-Economic Modelling Methods
A review of socio-economic modelling techniques was carried out in Chapter 5 with the purpose of identifying the current methods of societal representation within transport-energy models. This thesis uses the findings of this chapter to develop existing measures of socio-economic inclusion and adapts them to be linked with techno-economic models. This adaption was carried out firstly in Chapter 6, whereby a techno-economic sectoral simulation model was linked with a socio-economic discrete consumer choice model, allowing for policies to be targeted at a heterogeneous vehicle market, thus accounting for varying propensities of adoption. Chapter 7 integrates this hybrid of techno-economic and socio-economic simulation models with an optimisation model, mimicking the approach created in Chapter 4, with greater societal representation through the use of the
consumer choice model and a time travel budget. This chapter focuses on the Danish transport sector, and identifies the role of Denmark in adhering to the pledges made by COP21.
Future Work
The methods proposed in this thesis do not represent a silver bullet for a low carbon future in the transportation sector but instead are intended to provide the first step towards forming evidence- based transport focused policies. The energy system is complex, and near-impossible to model to perfect accuracy, although the development of modelling methods and techniques, such as those presented in this thesis, can assist in the initial stages of policy formation. With further development in this area comes a greater deal of accuracy, strengthening the policy measures identified by energy system models. This section identifies some areas of potential future work which may assist to this area, and that may improve modelling of the transportation sector.
This thesis builds upon current methods of socio-economic modelling within the transport sector, although the representation of societal features is relatively new in the field of transportation energy modelling and should be developed further to enable a more holistic view of the transport system. This may be possible through further use of extensive stated preference surveys targeted at key segments of consumers (such as early adopters and the late majority) to understand how best to alleviate the barriers of low-carbon vehicle adoption. Furthermore, cost-related data was found to be sparse and difficult to obtain, creating difficulty in the development of the consumer choice model developed in Chapter 6. The creation of open-source data pertaining to the costs faced by consumers would be useful for researchers who wish to improve technical representation in modelling.
The models employed by this thesis do not consider the potential technologies which may have a large impact on future driving patterns of consumers. Autonomous vehicles, for example, may create significant changes in driving behaviour in the coming decades by allowing consumers of such vehicles to live in rural areas and commute longer distances. Future research could consider the limits and potential impacts of these technologies on the energy system by running scenarios with a range of driving behaviours to understand the impact if these technologies may have if a mass market share is achieved.
Finally, this thesis largely focused on developed countries, with some inclusion of the developing world in Chapter 2, largely due to the availability of data. Low income emerging economies will have a significant role to play in the future of global transportation and in adhering to global climate targets. There is a certain need for creating a similar hybrid modelling approach as created in this thesis with a geographic focus on the developing world.
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