Intensification pathways

Simulation results suggest various pathways of land use changes in wetland agriculture. Main pathways include: (i) the transition of households within farm types or between them and the corresponding change in production systems;

(ii) shifts from the current subsistence farming and grazing strategies towards a more market-oriented production; (iii) land use intensification; and (iv) land use specialisation of the current intensified systems. Land use intensification is suggested through a decline in or the abandonment of fallow and grazing systems, or change in the cropping systems toward multiple cropping seasons rather than single cropping system. In most cases combined scenarios showed clearer trends for land use change than the single scenario.

Nevertheless, the different pathways showed some opportunities and limitations that need to be discussed. Given the contrasting features of the study sites, discussion points will focus on key pathways for the five selected scenarios.

Most important outcomes of the scenarios were an increase in the dependency of livelihoods on cropland in the wetland, a substantial decrease in livestock-based production systems in the semi-arid areas and a trend towards crop - livestock integration due to land scarcity and improved market opportunities. Changes in production systems of smallholder households are

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in line with predictions by Thornton (2010) on future livestock production in the developing countries. The predicted crop-livestock integration will be accompanied with intensive dairy systems in humid areas with good markets as well as intensified non-dairy livestock production in the sub-humid grazing systems.

The various farm types thus defined have different accesses to key production resources and engage in different production activities. They exhibited different patterns of changes in resource endowment and hence in production systems. The positive relationship between the relative distributions of wetland-dependent farm types and decreasing upland per capita is consistent with the prediction by Smith et al. (2011) for cropland expansion in response to exacerbated shortages of suitable cropland in sub-Saharan Africa by 2050.

Assuming that convertible land is available in the wetland, some households from the two-thirds (Survey data), who initially had access to cropland on upland will become upland landless. This affects the likelihood to increase the proportional distribution of households within farms of Type 1 (cf. Table 6).

Increasing land scarcity may also have implications on livestock production systems. Therefore, an increase in livestock production in mixed systems requires substantial resource use efficiencies, as growing scarcities of water and land can cause feed shortages. Increase in dairy cattle number can help crop-dairy-based farmers in the humid areas with relatively good market opportunities to maintain their productivity per capita under the limited land conditions. The good market opportunities will provide market outlets for feed supplements, providing them with an alternative to complement the forage shortages. Feed from crop residues, crop by-products and cut-and-carry systems from small pieces of land can help the intensive livestock systems face the predicted feed constraints by Herrero et al. (2009).

Notably, the simulation results suggest a substantial decrease in livestock-based production systems in the semi-arid areas (cf. Table 6 D). Floodplains have been traditionally considered as back-falls grazing by the local pastoralist communities that live in the semi-arid areas. Due to their ability to retain soil moisture during the dry season, these areas support biomass production and pastures provision when forage shortage occurs on other grasslands. Land scarcity is seen to make it difficult for pastoralists to gain access to the feed and water resources that they have traditionally been able to access. An assessment by Herrero (2010) predicts range-lands fragmentation in the

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arid areas where livestock are a mechanism for risk management. Our results imply land use displacement, where the available range-lands will serve more for livestock grazing. Local pastoralists have reported seasonal migration into the mountainous areas like Mt. Kenya during severe drought for the search of pastures. In sum, predicted structural changes in the cropping and livestock systems cannot be attained unless sound agricultural and development policies are formulated and implemented in close proximity with the smallholder farmers. Such policies should target a more sustainable farming system of smallholder farming households that operate in rural areas.

5. Conclusions

The study explored changes in the human-wetland agricultural use systems under increasing land scarcity, improved market opportunity, and government policies on development in contrasting rural areas in East Africa. Pressure on existing small wetlands in the study areas is predicted to worsen with the global effects of increasing cropland scarcity, market liberalization, and agricultural development policies. Existing crop-based systems are expected to integrate livestock while the current crop-livestock systems will be intensified. Multiple cropping and cash crop production are expected to increase at the cost of current fallow and grazing systems. The implications are expected to impede the implementation of small wetland conservation and hence increase detrimental environmental impacts (Foley et al., 2005; MEA, 2005), and raise conflicts over the access of the scarce resources. Although the study did not explicitly explore options for wetland conservation, the implications of expected intensification and wetland conservation policy serve conflicting objectives and often work in opposite directions. There is, therefore, a need for sound policies and innovation to reconcile wetland conversation with food production.

Chapter 6