ISCAP 2012 SAMPLE COMPOSITION VERSUS CPS 2012

Appendix Table 4.1. Sample Representativeness: Comparison of Demographic Characteristics of Samples in the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the ISCAP 2012 Panel Survey, Unweighted and Weighted

a _{All CPS estimates provided have N=234,719} b _{All pre-election estimates provided have N=2,606} c

All post-election estimates provided have N=2,471

Note: GfK uses address-based sampling to recruit a random sample of Americans into their online panel. Panel demographic post-stratification adjustments were made using the October 2012 Current Population Survey to ensure that the panel is as representative as possible across seven factors: gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, census region, and metropolitan area. Separate weights were calculated for each of the two waves. The post-election wave weights are used in the robustness tables in Appendix V. They range from a minimum of 0.19 to a maximum of 3.72 (they have a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.66) and have a design effect of 1.4.

CPS ISCAP 2012

October Pre-election Post-election

2012 Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted

% % % % % Sex Male 48.3 47.1 48.0 46.9 47.9 Female 51.7a 52.9b 52.0 53.1c 52.1 Age 18-24 12.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 25-44 34.6 38.0 39.4 37.4 39.9 45-64 34.9 37.1 38.0 37.0 37.7 65+ 17.7 23.1 23.8 23.8 20.7 Race/ethnicity White non-Hispanic 66.5 70.1 67.5 70.3 67.6 Black non-Hispanic 11.5 13.4 11.3 13.1 11.3 Hispanic 14.8 9.8 13.9 9.8 13.9 Other 7.3 6.8 7.2 6.8 7.2 Education

High school or less 43.2 41.3 41.5 41.7 41.4

Some college/Associates 28.6 23.5 26.9 23.3 26.9 Bachelor's degree 18.4 20.9 19.0 20.8 19.0 Postgraduate degree 8.4 14.3 12.6 14.3 12.8 Household income Less than $25K 18.7 19.9 22.6 19.9 22.2 $25K-49,999 20.7 26.4 25.4 26.5 25.8 $50K-74,999 16.1 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.3 $75K-99,999 11.3 15.4 14.9 15.4 14.9 $100K or more 25.9 16.5 15.4 16.6 15.8

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APPENDIX V – ROBUSTNESS TABLES FOR CHAPTER 3

Appendix Table 5.1. Explaining Change in Perceived High Threat from China (Binary) Using Media Exposure and Valence - Weighted

Model 1 Model 2

Wave -0.08 -0.105#

(0.051) (0.078)

Percent of negative China references 0.623***

(0.161)

Percent of positive China references 0.896**

(0.328)

Percent of neutral China references 0.062

(0.098)

Constant 0.586*** 0.637**

(0.383) (0.465)

Pseudo-R2 0.000 0.009

N 2,471 2,234

Note: Results shown are from a fixed effects logistic regression model using two points in time: pre- election and post-election. The dependent variable is a binary variable where those who say China is primarily a threat to jobs and security are coded as 1 and those who said otherwise are coded as 0. Robust standard errors are in parentheses; post-stratification weights are employed. Significance values are indicated with # p<.10, * p<.05, ** p<.01, *** p<.001.

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Appendix Table 5.2 Explaining Change in Perceived China Threat (Three-Part Change Scale) Using Media Exposure and Valence - Weighted

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3

Change in percent of negative China references -0.016 (0.173) -0.003 (0.177) -0.107 (1.499) Change in percent of positive

China references -0.102 (0.339) -0.135 (0.350) -0.411 (1.384) Change in percent of neutral

China references -0.198# (0.122) -0.199# (0.122) -0.102 (0.428) Change in count of China

references

-0.001 (0.002) Saw any pre-election China

related references

0.041 (0.116) Saw any pre-election

references x change in percent negative

0.117 (1.510)

Saw any pre-election references x change in percent positive

0.344 (1.431)

Saw any pre-election references x change in percent neutral -0.079 (0.450) Cut 1 -0.486*** -0.476*** -0.462*** (0.059) (0.064) (0.093) Cut 2 1.391*** 1.40*** 1.416*** (0.071) (0.074) (0.099) Pseudo-R2 0.001 0.002 0.003 N 2,033 2,033 2,033

Note: Results shown are from an ordered logistic regression. The dependent variable is a three-point variable where -1 is those whose perceived threat from China decreased from pre- to post-election, 0 is those who had no change, and 1 is those whose threat perception increased. The key independent variables are difference scores, where the percent of positive/negative/neutral references at Wave 2 are subtracted from Wave 1, and positive scores represent an increase over time and negative ones a decrease over time. Standard errors are in parentheses and post-stratification weights are employed. Significance values are indicated with # p<.10, * p<.05, ** p<.01, *** p<.001.

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Appendix Table 5.3.Explaining Change in Perceived China Threat (Three-Part Change Scale) Using Media Exposure and Valence Controlling for Pre-Election Attitude - Weighted

Model 1 Model 2

Time 1 (7-pt) Perceived Threat from China

-0.375*** (0.026)

-0.403*** (0.030)

Change in percent of negative China references

-0.049 (0.190)

Change in percent of positive China references

0.069 (0.419)

Change in percent of neutral China references -0.326* (0.136) Cut 1 -2.83*** -2.90*** (0.162) (0.181) Cut 2 -0.783*** -0.849*** (0.157) (0.173) Pseudo-R2 0.051 0.059 N 1,901 1,605

Note: Results shown are from an ordered logistic regression. The dependent variable is a three-point variable where -1 is those whose perceived threat from China decreased from pre- to post-election, 0 is those who had no change, and 1 is those whose threat perception increased. The key independent variables are difference scores, where the percent of positive/negative/neutral references at Wave 2 are subtracted from Wave 1, so positive scores represent a decrease over time and negative ones an increase over time. Only those with a substantive pre-election opinion are included. Standard errors are in parentheses and post-stratification weights are included. Significance values are indicated with # p<.10, * p<.05, ** p<.01, *** p<.001.

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APPENDIX VI – EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN PROTOCOL

Note: throughout this protocol, everything in italics is a note to readers and was not presented to the survey respondent. Everything not in italics was shown to the respondents.

Thank you for agreeing to take this survey. Please note that participation in this survey is entirely voluntary. If at any time you would like to end the survey, please do so. As part of this survey, you will be shown a short advertisement and asked a series of questions about education and other opinions you may have. If you have any questions, please email the researcher at [email protected].

Please note that following the study, you will be provided with a code that you must enter on Amazon's Mechanical Turk in order to receive payment.

Please enter your Amazon Mechanical Turk ID [____________________________]

Pretest demographics

Are you a

 Male

 Female

Do you consider yourself

 White

 Black or African American

 Asian

 Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander

 American Indian or Alaska Native

 Other (please specify) [____________________________]

Are you

 Hispanic or Latino

 Not Hispanic or Latino

What is the highest degree or level of school you have completed? If currently enrolled, mark the previous grade or highest degree received.

 Less than high school

 Some high school, no diploma

 High school graduate

 Some college credit, but no degree

 College graduate

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Are you currently

 Employed

 Out of work and looking for work

 Out of work but not currently looking for work

 A student

 Retired

 Unable to work

 Homemaker

 Other

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a

 Republican

 Democrat

 Independent

 Another party (please specify) [____________________________] [If “Republican”] Would you call yourself a

 Strong Republican

 Not very strong Republican [If “Democrat”] Would you call yourself a

 Strong Democrat

 Not very strong Democrat

[If “Independent/Another party”] Do you think of yourself as closer to the

 Republican Party

 Democrat Party

 Neither of these

Who did you vote for in the 2012 presidential election?

 Mitt Romney

 Barack Obama

 I did not vote

 Other (please specify) [____________________________]

Authoritarianism

Although there are a number of qualities that people feel that children should have, every person thinks that some are more important than others. Please choose which of the following traits you find most desirable.

 Independence

 Respect for elders

And which of these traits do you find more desirable?

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 Good manners

And which of these traits do you find more desirable?

 Obedience

 Self-reliance

And finally, which of these traits do you find more desirable?

 Considerate

 Well-behaved Social dominance orientation

To what degree do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Some groups of people are simply inferior to others.

 Strongly agree

 Somewhat agree

 Neither agree nor disagree

 Somewhat disagree

 Strongly disagree

If certain groups stayed in their place, we would have fewer problems.

 Strongly agree

 Somewhat agree

 Neither agree nor disagree

 Somewhat disagree

 Strongly disagree

It’s probably a good thing that certain groups are at the top and other groups are at the bottom.

 Strongly agree

 Somewhat agree

 Neither agree nor disagree

 Somewhat disagree

 Strongly disagree

We would have fewer problems if we treated people more equally.

 Strongly agree

 Somewhat agree

 Neither agree nor disagree

 Somewhat disagree

 Strongly disagree

Treatment videos – negatively-valenced coverage of China

Individuals were assigned either a treatment or a control video aired by the candidate who they voted for in 2012, using self-reported vote choice in the pre-test. If they did not vote or voted for a

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third-party candidate, they were randomly assigned a treatment or control video from the candidate of the party with which they identified with or leaned. If they were true independents and did not vote in 2012, they were randomly assigned.

Now you’re going to be shown a short (30 second) video. Please pay close attention, as there will be some questions about it later.

Treatment – Obama campaign (“The Cheaters”) [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MI4YOICmuA]

Mitt Romney: “It’s time to stand up to the cheaters and make sure we protect jobs for the American people”

Voice over: “Mitt Romney- tough on China? Romney’s companies were called pioneers in shipping US manufacturing jobs overseas. He invested in firms that specialized in relocating jobs to low wage countries, like China. Even today part of Romney’s fortune is invested in China. Romney has never stood up to China. All he’s done is send them our jobs”

Barack Obama: “I’m Barack Obama and I approved this message” Treatment – Romney campaign (“Stand up to China”)

[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUhKRV4Tq8A]

Voice over: “Fewer Americans are working today than when President Obama took office. It doesn’t have to be this way, if Obama would stand up to China. China is

stealing American ideas and technology, everything from computers to fighter jets. Seven times Obama could have taken action, seven times he said no. His policies cost us two million jobs. America had years to stand up to China. We can’t afford four more” Mitt Romney: “I’m Mitt Romney and I approved this message”

Control – Obama campaign (“Decision”)

[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPrFp5VhdnU]

Barack Obama: “I’m Barack Obama and I approved this message”

Woman 1: “I think Mitt Romney’s really out of touch with the average woman’s health issues”

Woman 2: “This is not the 1950s, contraception is so important to women, it’s about a woman being able to make decisions”

Woman 1: “I don’t remember anyone as extreme as Romney” Mitt Romney: “I’d cut off funding to Planned Parenthood”

Woman 2: “I don’t think Mitt Romney can even understand the mindset of someone who has to go to Planned Parenthood”

Mitt Romney: “Planned Parenthood, gonna get rid of that” Woman 1: “I think Mitt Romney would definitely drag us back” Control – Romney campaign (“Humanity”)

[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPfRbp2zycc]

Jane C. Edmonds, former Mitt Romney cabinet member: “I was just personally struck by his humanity”

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Beth Lindstrom, former Mitt Romney cabinet member “He said, we need to take care of those who can’t take care of themselves, single mothers or women who are trying to get back to work. He is very very sensitive”

Ellen Roy Herzfelder, former Mitt Romney cabinet member: “He totally gets working women, especially women who, like myself, had two young kids. I needed flexibility” Beth Lindstrom: “It’s so wonderful to have someone who you respect and work for that understands how important family is”

Mitt Romney: “I’m Mitt Romney and I approved this message” Post-test

Now I’m going to ask you to participate in a role-playing situation. Pretend you are an admissions officer at an elite university. I am going to show you a series of profiles of students applying to your school. Please read them carefully and evaluate their quality, and whether or not you think they should be admitted to the school.

Each individual now sees six profiles. The profile content is presented in the same order depicted below, though the race and nationality of the candidate presented with each of the profiles varies in a Latin Square designed discussed in Chapter 5.

140 Profile #2

141 Profile #4

142 Profile #6

Admissions officers routinely have to make tough decisions, choosing between very strong candidates. Thinking back on the six profiles that you evaluated, please rank the students in order, from the one you would most like to admit (1) to the one you would least like to admit (6). The respondent will then drag the small profile pictures—which are presented in a random order—into their preferred order.

Please take a moment to explain why you placed the students in that order. What types of things were you considering? [OPEN END]

143 Country favorability

Now I’m going to ask you your opinions about a few foreign countries. Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following countries. [randomly ordered] India