Learning Activity: Probability

Predictions for the Week

BIG IDEA Probability

CURRICULUM EXPECTATIONS

Students will:

• describe the likelihood that everyday events will occur, using mathematical language (i.e., impossible, unlikely, less likely, more likely, certain ) (e.g., “It’s unlikely that I will win the contest shown on the cereal box.”).

MATERIALS

– chart on chart paper with four columns labelled “Certain”, “Likely”, “Unlikely”, and “Impossible”

– cards cut from Prob1.BLM1a–c: Event Cards – glue

– Prob1.BLM2: Certain, Likely, Unlikely, and Impossible (1 per student)

ABOUT THE MATH

Young students begin to develop concepts about probability as they consider the likelihood of events in their daily lives. Initially, they describe the likelihood of events using simple language, such as “That couldn’t happen,” “My mom might take me to see my grandma,” “I know that I’ll lose my tooth soon.”

Classroom activities can help to develop students’ growing intuitions about chance, and can help them to acquire language to describe ideas about probability more precisely. These learning experiences can provide opportunities for students to think about the meaning of vocabulary such as “unlikely”, “likely”, and “certain”, and allow them to use these terms in relation to everyday events.

GETTING STARTED

At the beginning of a school week, discuss events that will occur in the classroom in the next few days.

“There will be lots of things happening in our classroom this week. We will be reading stories, singing songs, doing math activities, playing games at recess, and learning lots of new things.”

GRADE 1 LEARNING ACTIVITY: PROBABILITY

Continue the discussion by talking about events that might happen and those that will not happen

“This week, some things might happen. We might have a visitor in our classroom. Maybe a guest will come and read a story to us. Perhaps we will play a game in the gym. “I know that there are some things that will not happen this week. We will not be meeting with our reading buddies on Wednesday because they will be on a class trip. I also know that we will not sing ‘Happy Birthday’, because no one in our class has a birthday this week.”

Ask students to suggest other events that will, might, and will not occur during the upcoming week.

WORKING ON IT

Display a chart with four columns labelled “Certain”, “Likely”, “Unlikely”, and “Impossible”. Read the headings together, and ask students to explain what they mean.

Show the cards made from Prob1.BLM1a–c: Event Cards, and explain that students will need to predict whether the event written on each card will occur in the classroom during the upcoming week. Read each card aloud, and ask questions, such as:

• “Do you think this event will happen this week? Why or why not?”

• “Do you think this event is certain this week, likely, unlikely, or impossible? Why?” • “In which column of the chart should we post this card?”

Glue each card in its appropriate column. Allow students to discuss their differences of opinion about the likelihood of any event. If there is no consensus, make a copy of the event card, and post the event in more than one column.

Note: Decide whether it is more appropriate to complete this activity as a large group or with small groups of students. If students work in small groups, provide each group with a set of event cards cut from Prob1.BLM1a–c: Event Cards, a sheet of chart paper divided into four columns, and glue. Instruct students to work together as they read the cards, discuss the likelihood of events, and glue the cards in appropriate columns. After all event cards have been glued to the chart, discuss the activity:

• “Why is this event in this particular column?”

• “Was it easy to decide where to place this event? Why or why not?” • “Which event was difficult to place? Why? ”

GRADE 1 LEARNING ACTIVITY: PROBABILITY

Explain to students that you will be leaving the chart up for the week, and later the class will check whether the predictions were correct.

From time to time, during the next few days, refer to the chart and discuss how specific events have or have not occurred.

REFLECTING AND CONNECTING

At the end of the week, review the chart with students. Ask questions, such as the following:

• “Why did we place this card in this column at the beginning of the week? Did we place this card in the right column? Why or why not? ”

• “Which predictions came true? Why do you think we predicted correctly? ”

• “Which predictions did not come true? Why do you think we predicted incorrectly?” • “How would you change the chart if you made predictions for next week?”

• “Will the events in the ‘Impossible’ column always be impossible, or could some of them become possible?”

• “Will the events in the ‘Unlikely’ column always be unlikely, or could some of them become likely?”

Listen to students as they respond to questions in order to assess their understanding of “certain”, “likely”, “unlikely”, and “impossible”, and their ability to describe the likelihood of events using appropriate language.

ADAPTATIONS/EXTENSIONS

Recognize that students’ understanding of chance and their ability to describe the likelihood of events depend on their experiences in and out of school. Some students may have had little opportunity to discuss ideas about probability, so it is important to emphasize the meaning of words such as “certain”, “likely”, “unlikely”, and “impossible”, and to talk about examples of these terms. If the activity is completed by small groups of students, ensure that students who have an emerging understanding of probability work with classmates who can discuss and explain the likelihood of events.

Extend the activity by having students create their own classroom event cards. Students can create the cards using words and/or pictures. Encourage students to create cards that show impossible, unlikely, likely, and certain events. Have students categorize their events in a chart.

GRADE 1 LEARNING ACTIVITY: PROBABILITY