Learning from statistic-cognitive approaches

In this section I discuss two main contributions of this thesis in relation to the proposed method of linking cognitive approaches to spatial-temporal analysis of land use/cover change. First, the feedbacks are discussed regarding their possible utility to support sustainable land systems. Secondly, the associated lessons learned on how the new insights of the revealed feedbacks can be used to indicate successful sustainable alternatives.

6.5.1 Feedbacks to support sustainable land systems

Ultimately, my drive to study land use and land cover dynamics was linked to the broader aim of advancing the sustainability land use/cover change. Successful research should then not only be measured by scientific merit, but also by the usefulness of resulting products and recommendations (Kates et al., 2001). In that context, research outputs and recommendations can be considered useful only if they help stakeholders to improve their decision making, i.e., if improved decision-making can lead to more sustainable management of the human-environment system. Considering the importance of sustainable development, I exemplify and discuss the relevant feedback loops that might help sustainable practices observed in the field among small farms regarding drivers, patterns and processes of changes in land systems.

The intensive fieldwork campaign in 2008 provided sufficient material at the household level for the analyses described in chapters 3 and 4. Beyond that, fieldwork interviews revealed examples of small farming practices that can lead to sustainable land use systems. The most relevant cases (named here sustainable cases) were linked to: 1) agro- forestry with native species associated to cocoa or coffee plantations underneath; 2) reforestation with native (Hevea brasiliensis) or exotic species (Tectona grandis) from Southeastern Asian tropical forests and; 3) ananas plantation on poor fertile soils. The core drivers of land use identified in these examples were, in order of importance: agricultural background of landholders, diversification and profitability of land use system at regional/national markets, labor force within the family and finally soil fertility (except for ananas plantation). Because the number of samples of such sustainable cases is very small (with only one sample in the ananas plantation), a statistical analysis was not performed. These sustainable cases could nonetheless support the discussion below on the feasibility of reproducing already existing sustainable practices among small landholders in the Brazilian Amazon.

This overview regarding the main drivers and processes of specific land use systems considered as sustainable cases indicate that feedback loops that reinforce accessibility to markets, perennial crops, agricultural revenue, soil fertility and labor force can determine or undermine decision-making processes that allow for more sustainable land use systems in the Brazilian Amazon. Also, specific land use types such as ananas plantation can be an

alternative in poor fertile areas that has been mistakenly planned for small farming. The implementation of educational and financial incentives to small landholders could likely dampen feedbacks of deforestation where land speculation pressures further lots aggregation. Such actions can improve living conditions of small farmers who struggle to keep their land, and usually have no sponsorships and little knowledge to choose for alternative and more sustainable plantations.

The analysis of feedback loops of forest change in the context of recent political actions is an interesting and relevant subject. Two main established and on-going changes in legislation are considered. Firstly, the modification of the Brazilian Forestry Code that affected the rules of obliged reserves along rivers and on the top of hills. Secondly, the recent legislation and governmental subsidizing programs to sustainable land use/cover practices (the National Policy for Ecosystem Services and the Federal Payment for Ecosystems Services Program). Among the most relevant initiatives of sustainable agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon are: the subsidized incentives for small landholders to agriculture/pasture practices who follow the Forestry Code; the subsides to the development of agro-forest systems; and finally the regulation for projects of Payment for Ecosystems Services (PES), sometimes associated to Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) (Metzger, 2010; Moraes, 2012).

The feedback loop at the local scale that reinforces secondary forest and the one at the regional scale that reinforces agricultural revenue and perennial crops could be directly affected by such policies, especially regarding PES and REDD policies. Conversely, the feedback loops at the regional scale including deforestation, dry season severity and fires, or within land prices, deforestation, fires and soil fertility could be dampened in the long term if changes in the Forestry Code are enforced among large farms. Thus, under the auspicious human-environmental interactions, such recent changes in both land cover trends in the Brazilian Amazon and the Brazilian environmental legislation and sustainability policies indicate that small, medium and large landholders can all foresee and start applying more sustainable land use practices that are economically feasible. Despite that, the cultural barriers are still strong in keeping the usual slash-and-burn for agriculture and/or pasture expansion. However, I believe this paradigm can be replaced by governmental campaigns spreading news of successful stories and with the private sector recognizing that the market

niche of sustainable practices can not only keep gains, but also guarantee sellers and buyers survival in the long term.

This overall logic and main conclusions of this thesis when assembling all chapters together are shown in Figure 6.2.

Figure 6.2 – System diagram indicating the main conclusions of this thesis in understanding land systems dynamics. Text inside the circles indicate methods and achievements obtained in different chapters, the text next to blue arrows indicate the gains when adding new methods at each step, and finally the purple intersection within circles indicates the lessons learnt only possible when assembling together results from all chapters.

The system illustrates the methods and the achievements of individual steps taken in different chapters to understand land use systems dynamics (text inside circles), as well as the gains when adding new methods at each step of thesis (text along blue arrows). In the last step between chapter 5 and chapter 2, the gain loop is completed with the associated

CHAPTER 2