Storing your car in New York is safer than entering it in a demolition derby. But not much. ~Daniel S. Greenberg
Currently maximum human lifespan is thought to be 125 years, which is just shy of the record holder Jeanne Calment, 122 years.
The rest of us probably have no chance of reaching such an advanced age. To become 120 years old you would have to have incredible genetics (look at the supercentenarians that smoke and drink) or implement calorie restriction, and maybe even have to do both. The Leiden University Medical Center has studied populations of older individuals. One population study of 420 Caucasian families which included long-living members has turned up some very interesting data. Numerous studies have been released looking at various health factors (remember Chapter 8) and it was found that the children of centenarians have similar biometrics as their parents. For example, measurements of serum glucose, triglycerides, insulin, blood pressure, thyroid hormone and insulin sensitivity were all much more favorable than matched partners (such as the centenarian’s son’s wife who does not have centenarian parents). What this shows is that extensive longevity has a very strong genetic component.
What is interesting is that calorie restriction takes a person without centenarian parents and alters the biochemistry and metabolism of the practitioner to match those of the very long-living. CR increases insulin sensitivity, lower blood glucose, allows for the same cholesterol profile (high HDL, low LDL, triglycerides, and overall low cholesterol), low blood pressure, and the same thyroid hormonal profile (high TSH, with normal T4, suggesting TSH resistance, by today’s measurement this would be hypothyroidism, however, it is not pathological in centenarians and CR-folk). Considering that CR actually slows
99 down the rate of aging, I think that CR-folk can probably reach up to 110-120 years old depending on their genetics and when they started practicing, earlier being better. CR done today is practice in conjunction with Optimal Nutrition (ON), while centenarians probably do not practice ON. If those who are genetically gifted practiced CRON, I would suspect that they could live beyond 120.
Life Span
It may seem like we have extended our lifespan in the last 1000 years. The ancient Greeks, Romans, and Egyptians had a life expectancy of 30, now we can expect to live up to 80 (Japanese women can expect to live up to 86.44). Its seems we easily doubled our life span and if you plot it, it looks like we are gaining a solid 2.5 years every decade in a straight line with no plateau in sight. If you plot human survival curves it definitely seems very square, but the squaring effect stopped at about 1950 (figure 3 in the study below) and seems to be shifting parallel:
Westendorp RGJ. What is healthy aging in the 21st century?
American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, Vol. 83, No. 2, 404S-409S.
Remember Chapter 5?
In 1950 we reached the black line and now the survival curve seems to be moving like the red one. As I said in the beginning
100 of the chapter, maximum lifespan seems to be 125 years and I suspect that this has always been the case for thousands of years.
The jump in life expectancy had nothing to do with our understanding of the biology and underlying mechanisms of aging, it had to do with eliminating factors that kill us (e.g.
infectious diseases, acute injuries, starvation) and securing things that keep us safe (e.g. health care, food, refrigeration, sanitation).
With the help of modern technology we have eliminated most causes that kill us prematurely and now we are exposed to aging itself. The previous gain in life expectancy isn’t something we should expect to see again because now it is different. Instead of preventing the bacteria from killing you, you have to prevent your metabolism from killing you, and so far the only way to slow that down is through calorie restriction.
How long can you expect to live by implementing my suggested changes into your lifestyle? If CR-folk can reach the age of 110-120, with the interventions in this book it may be possible to live to 98-100. Here is some data to back it up:
Mackenbach JP, Kunst AE, Lautenbach H, Oei YB, Bijlsma F.
Gains in Life Expectancy after Elimination of Major Causes of Death: Revised Estimates Taking into Account the Effect of Competing Causes. Journal of Epidemiology and Community
Health (1979-), Vol. 53, No. 1 (Jan., 1999), pp. 32-37
Mackenbach et al (1979) determined that by preventing heart disease, cancer, and various other diseases (e.g. diabetes, stroke, etc…) one can expect to gain 10 years in their life expectancy.
What if we were to try our best to optimize ALL our risk factors?
Let’s take 11 of them: diastolic and systolic blood pressure, smoking, vital capacity index, blood glucose, hematocrit value, body mass index, serum cholesterol, sex, pulse rate, and left ventricular hypertrophy. If we made all these measurements into the lowest risk factor group, how long can we expect to live?
Luckily the math has been done:
101 Manton KG, Stallard E, Tolley HD. Limits to Human Life Expectancy: Evidence, Prospects, and Implications. Population
and Development Review, Vol. 17, No. 4 (Dec., 1991), pp. 603-637
Manton et al. optimized the 11 risk factors above and predicted that life expectancies up to 100 years old can be achieved. Since models are usually wrong, and regarding age people like to be optimistic, as well as factoring in the “luck of the draw”
(genetics) I estimate that I can personally live to 90-95 years old (10% down adjustment). Just a big fat guess but I feel confident about this number.
Health Span
Even if we took the pessimistic view of 90, I would still implement the lifestyle described in this book. Healthy life expectancy is the number of years one can live with minimal morbidity. For example, let’s say you live until 90 but have diabetes for 15 years, then cancer for 10. Your healthy life expectancy from birth is only 75.
Japan has the longest healthy life expectancy:
Takeda S.[Healthy life expectancy and the standardized mortality ratio for the elderly in Japan's 47 Prefectures] [Article in Japanese]. Nippon Koshu Eisei Zasshi. 2007 Jan;54(1):25-31
It seems the longest health span is 80-84. This is quite close to the life expectancy of 86 (I know I’m mixing up data but close enough).
From all the research, health span and life span are closely correlated, healthier people just tend to live longer. But as lifespan begins to reach the maximum (outside of anti-aging interventions) morbidity will be compressed as people get healthier. Even if I were to only achieve 86.44 (not saying I’m a
102 Japanese woman, just that this is a number for the healthy) I would be glad that I gained 10 years of healthy lifespan where I am not suffering from cancer, diabetes, heart disease, and Alzheimer’s.
I have volunteered at a care home for over 4 years and had the chance to work at a hospital for 1 year, the way that seniors spend the rest of their lives in these situations is not something I want to go through.
When I am 80 years old I still expect to be able to walk on my two feet without help, get out of a chair, pick up my great-great-grandchildren, lift weights, and debate/discuss with the younger generation. To do that you must keep your body and mind healthy at a young age.
Where to Now?
Research in the field of aging is exploding. Of course, there has been some resistance (hey, death is “natural”) but sooner or later we will have interventions that will expand both our health span and our life span. The common interpretation of anti-aging interventions is that you will be 120 years old but be more decrepit than a 90 year old (which is really bad), but this is not how these interventions will work. The new technologies being developed will not make you “older,” instead it will extend you lifespan by making you younger. The first development that will come will probably be CR-mimetics. These are pharmacological interventions that will mimic the metabolic altering effects of CR, after that it will be Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS) (read Aubrey De Grey’s book on this matter,
“Ending Aging”). SENS isn’t about trying to mimic the effects of CR, it goes beyond that in that it is trying to go into our bodies and fix/reverse/remove the damage that happens. If the damage is gone then the cause of aging is diminished. This seems like a tall order but it is definitely possible.
103 It is because of SENS that I have put serious thought into adopting CRON (please donate to SENS). It is the only way of ensuring maximally robust lifespan, and this is important because of the speed at which science advances. Less than 20 years ago we did not have the internet, and now it permeates almost every facet of our world. Science and technology build upon themselves and with each new block they reach farther heights than ever before. To take advantage of these new discoveries from SENS one has to have a body that is robust enough to deal with the effects of these new drugs/interventions.
If you reach the age of 70 but can hardly move and have dementia, you will not be able to survive the application of the new technologies. However, if you are 70 years old with robust health (like with CRON) then you can. Let’s say the intervention extends your life by 10 years, because of that one discovery, more will come and within those 10 years another intervention will come along extending life another 20 years, and so on and so forth, until immortality is reached (this is by no means far-fetched). I am not saying that these interventions will be created in my lifespan or yours, but the thing is that you never know, and it would be best to not only live as healthily as possible, but to live as long as possible. The only way to achieve the maximum is through caloric restriction (this speeding up of technology is known as the Singularity, read Ray Kurzweil’s book, “The Singularity is Near”).
(If you plan on practicing CR make sure to do tons of research.
Roy Walford‟s book “Beyond the 120 Year Diet : How to Double Your Vital Year” is a good place to start. As far as I know the downsides are: loss of libido, hunger, social struggles and emaciation)
I think that I have taken this lifestyle as far as it can go, the only other place to enter now is the world of the extreme, calorie restriction with optimal nutrition. Will I enter that realm, I don’t know yet, but it is best to decide sooner rather than later.
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Concluding Thoughts
My goal when I started researching all this was to try my best to prevent the chronic illnesses. I saw how much pain they can cause to everyone. Just take Alzheimer’s for example: lifeless eyes with no sense of self, time, or place, a dreadful disease with a slow progression that places strain on yourself as you lose your soul as well as strain on your family, friends and society. Even if you wanted to end it you couldn’t because you have basically disappeared. Everyone’s goal in this life is different, but I am certain that no one wants to end up in such decrepitude. The regimens laid out in the book will help with preventing this, screw the USDA Food Guide and the American Diabetes
Associate Diet, throw out common “wisdom” and rely instead on hard science. The basic principle of this book is: eat the right foods, but not too much; allow the body to take out the garbage;
be conscious of what you put in your body; and exercise.
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