LIVELIHOOD PERSPECTIVES AND FOREST DYNAMICS IN THE AMAZONIAN SETTLEMENT PROJECTS

6.2.1 Livelihood strategies adopted by settlers

What settlers do to make their living in agrarian settlements is a result of many factors that interact in many different ways. Chapter 2 identified and described three different livelihood strategy clusters found in the study area, namely, livestock-oriented, diversified-oriented, and off-farm-oriented (Tables 2.2 and 2.3). The main on-farm activity in all clusters is cattle breeding, predominantly dairy cattle, although other activities such as crops (bean, rice, cassava, and corn) and small livestock (pigs, chickens, and goats) are undertaken. Off-farm activities and sources of income relate mainly to off-farm labour and subsidies (pensions and family allowance – bolsa família).

Thus, even in one region, influenced by a similar context (struggle for land) and affected by the same set of specific policies (from the ARP), settlers have developed different strategies to make a living. These differences are strongly linked with settlers’ background and origin. It is recommended to incorporate this specific and crucial finding in the agrarian reform process, as explained in Chapter 2. Settlers should be placed together according to their skills and backgrounds, before land is actually distributed. This could help to avoid deforestation, for instance, by preventing livestock-oriented farmers from being settled in forested areas.

Moreover, environmental conditions, social organization, market availability, and some facilitating mechanisms of agrarian reform, i.e. credit policy, technological assistance, and land access, have all played key roles in directing the livelihood strategy choices towards (dairy) cattle breeding. Although it is not often acknowledged in the literature, the settlers are well integrated in the market because of the dairy and beef chains already established in the region.

131 In general, settlers are achieving their livelihood goals, because they are earning a relatively good income (national average). They earn this income independent of livelihood strategy adopted, although settlers in the off-farm cluster are not reaching the agrarian reform premise, i.e. living from agricultural activities only. All in all, livelihood strategies adopted by settlers result from the combination of different factors, such as background and agrarian reform mechanisms, rather than from isolated factors.

6.2.2 Forest dynamics at the municipal, settlement project, and properties levels

This thesis has demonstrated the importance of studying forest dynamics, i.e. deforestation and reforestation, rather than the unidirectional approach towards deforestation (Chapter 3).

Moreover, the use of mixed datasets and methods, such as satellite imagery and participatory mapping, was appropriate to show and analyse forest dynamics in the study area.

The forest dynamics analysis at municipal level showed a clear recent increase in forest (2005–2010). This forest recovery proved to be independent of the year of establishment of the settlement projects, including the project that was established last (Canudos/2004). In addition, all properties sampled in this study presented secondary forest (classified imagery). This finding suggests that the first steps of a forest transition are taking place in Eldorado do Carajás.

However, settlers do not perceive secondary regrowth as ‘real’ forest, even in areas that have been recovering for 10 years or more. These ‘resting’ areas can be understood in two ways. On the one hand, these areas will be the first to be cultivated again, either when inputs become available or when there is need to increase production. Therefore, they can be regarded as areas at high risk of future deforestation. On the other hand, they can be seen as having a high potential of remaining forested. The latter, however, requires technological innovation and intensification of agricultural activities and practices to prevent the clearance of new forest areas for agricultural lands in the (near) future (Altieri, 2002; Monteiro Novo, 2012).

6.2.3 Combining livelihood perspectives and forest dynamics

Acknowledging that livelihood strategies are dynamic processes, this thesis used the concept of livelihood trajectory to uncover the factors that have affected livelihoods over time (Chapter 4). From the dataset used to identify the livelihood strategies in Chapter 2, 11 different livelihood trajectories were identified from the time of the settlers’ arrival at their properties until 2010. Comparing these results with forest dynamics at property level, three

132

different steps were taken to find relationships and patterns of effects of livelihood strategies and livelihood trajectories on forest dynamics. However, because of the complexity involved in these two dynamic systems, i.e. livelihoods and forest, it was not possible to determine one-to-one relationships and general patterns of effects of the former on the latter. Pre-settlement environmental histories (Chapter 1), different years of arrival, and settlers with similar trajectories spread over different settlement projects are relevant explanations for this outcome.

Nonetheless, analysis of individual household- and property-level cases offered insights into factors, such as credit availability, market accessibility, and off-farm income (mainly pensions and family allowances), that have driven both livelihood trajectories and forest dynamics. From these individual cases, it was possible to observe how general underlying causes of deforestation and reforestation interact in different ways at property level, implying deforestation in some cases and forest recovery in others.

6.2.4 Current perceptions and future perspectives for livelihoods and the environment Fuzzy cognitive mapping was used as a tool to capture current settlers’ perceptions about their realities. From this it was concluded that they have similar perceptions of the factors that affect their livelihood security and environmental sustainability, independent of the livelihood strategy adopted (Chapter 5). However, differences were found in the relationships among factors and the weight attributed to each relationship, giving rise to fundamentally different system dynamics for each livelihood strategy cluster (Chapters 2 and 5). As a result, strong trade-offs exist between livelihood security and environmental sustainability in all clusters, and in (nearly) all future analyses. However, the nature of the trade-offs and whether livelihood security or environmental sustainability is favoured differs between the three livelihood strategies. Hence, the goals of sustainable development seem difficult to realize in the area, given the characteristics and drivers of the human–environment systems, as identified by the settlers. However, the emerging forest transitions as shown in Chapter 3 picture a slightly more optimistic future outlook in which livelihood security and environmental sustainability can – at least to some extent – be achieved together.

Additionally, as shown in Chapter 2, policies (agrarian reform, credit, technological assistance, etc.) are among the key drivers of the human–environment systems in the settlements. Thus, effective policy reforms could soften the strong trade-offs between livelihoods and the environment (Chapter 5). An initiative in this direction is the Brazilian government’s Environmental Conservation Support Program, the so-called bolsa verde (green

133 grant program), aiming at poverty reduction and forest conservation within settlement projects (MMA, 2013).

6.3 THE SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS APPROACH: DEALING WITH