_t
General Permanency Model
Specific Discharge Outcomes
Mean
Reunification Adoption Guardianship Non-Permanent
Outcome
ey/ex Std. Err ey/ex Std. Err. ey/ex Std. Err ey/ex Std. Err. ey/ex Std. Err
Policy-level factors More groups approved to
adopt -0.046 0.009 ** -0.094 0.014 ** -0.042 0.008 ** 0.318 0.025 ** 0.021 0.010 * 2.542
Fewer restrictions on who can
adopt 0.878 0.018 ** 1.217 0.028 ** 0.296 0.016 ** 0.782 0.048 ** 0.508 0.023 ** 4.263
ASFA compliance rate 0.041 0.010 ** 0.128 0.015 ** -0.103 0.009 ** -0.083 0.027 * -0.273 0.012 ** 0.3965 Relative preference in
placement 0.262 0.013 ** 0.300 0.020 ** 0.075 0.013 ** 0.237 0.034 ** 0.152 0.016 ** 1.866
Kinship Care designated in
statute -0.024 0.002 ** -0.025 0.003 ** -0.002 0.002 0.013 0.006 * -0.054 0.003 ** 0.316
IVE payment per IVE child 0.283 0.007 ** 0.218 0.011 ** 0.114 0.006 ** 1.061 0.021 ** 0.046 0.009 ** 6341.8 CW expend per child in pop 0.049 0.006 ** 0.105 0.009 ** 0.029 0.005 ** -0.183 0.015 ** 0.051 0.006 ** 428.20 Placement rate per
substantiated victim -0.100 0.003 ** -0.101 0.005 ** -0.091 0.003 ** -0.076 0.008 ** 0.014 0.004 ** 0.607 State-level factors Unemployment 0.456 0.018 ** 0.652 0.029 ** 0.127 0.016 ** 0.828 0.051 ** 0.378 0.023 ** 9.768 Poverty Rate -0.648 0.020 ** -1.006 0.031 ** -0.079 0.018 ** -0.558 0.054 ** -0.076 0.024 * 15.063 Percent Urban -0.462 0.024 ** -0.240 0.038 ** -0.299 0.022 ** -1.078 0.066 ** -0.456 0.031 ** 254.14 CW administrative structure -0.021 0.003 ** -0.040 0.004 ** 0.027 0.002 ** -0.051 0.007 ** -0.069 0.003 ** 0.684 CW "flow" -0.281 0.007 ** -0.387 0.011 ** -0.099 0.007 ** -0.384 0.019 ** -0.189 0.009 ** 3.805 Family-level factors
Parental Substance Abuse -0.023 0.002 ** -0.013 0.003 ** -0.019 0.002 ** -0.058 0.004 ** 0.025 0.003 ** 0.272 Parental Incarceration -0.012 0.001 ** -0.028 0.001 ** 0.006 0.001 ** -0.010 0.002 ** 0.000 0.001 0.069 Unmarried birth family -0.023 0.001 ** -0.031 0.002 ** -0.021 0.001 ** -0.008 0.003 ** 0.006 0.002 * 0.163 Single mother home -0.068 0.003 ** -0.071 0.004 ** -0.062 0.003 ** -0.057 0.007 ** -0.012 0.003 ** 0.467 Single father home -0.006 0.001 ** -0.006 0.001 ** -0.006 0.001 ** -0.007 0.001 ** -0.001 0.001 * 0.049 Child-level factors
141
Table I.1 (continued)
African American 0.040 0.002 ** 0.032 0.003 ** 0.072 0.002 ** 0.036 0.004 ** 0.002 0.002 0.281
American Indian/Alaskan
Native 0.007 0.000 ** 0.007 0.001 ** 0.007 0.000 ** 0.004 0.001 ** -0.004 0.000 ** 0.020
Asian -0.001 0.000 ** -0.001 0.000 ** 0.001 0.000 ** 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007
Hawaiian / Pacific Islander -0.001 0.000 ** -0.001 0.000 ** 0.000 0.000 * 0.001 0.000 * 0.000 0.000 0.002
Hispanic 0.001 0.001 -0.006 0.001 ** 0.007 0.001 ** 0.013 0.002 ** -0.005 0.001 ** 0.069
Multiracial 0.006 0.001 ** 0.003 0.002 0.008 0.001 ** 0.026 0.003 ** 0.006 0.002 ** 0.176
High utilization county 0.075 0.003 ** 0.080 0.004 ** 0.040 0.002 ** 0.141 0.007 ** 0.025 0.003 ** 0.464
Male child 0.013 0.003 ** 0.004 0.004 0.015 0.002 ** 0.013 0.006 * 0.015 0.003 ** 0.523
Documented disability 0.030 0.004 ** 0.093 0.007 ** -0.032 0.003 ** 0.035 0.010 * 0.015 0.004 ** 0.274
Mental Retardation 0.015 0.001 ** 0.018 0.002 ** 0.009 0.001 ** 0.008 0.003 * 0.000 0.001 0.020
Vision or hearing impaired 0.005 0.002 * 0.005 0.003 0.003 0.001 * 0.005 0.004 0.000 0.002 0.029
Physical disability 0.004 0.001 ** 0.005 0.001 ** 0.005 0.001 ** 0.006 0.002 * 0.000 0.001 0.012
Emotionally disturbed 0.053 0.009 ** 0.022 0.015 0.056 0.006 ** 0.065 0.022 * 0.008 0.010 0.155
Other medical condition 0.027 0.008 ** 0.010 0.013 0.038 0.005 ** 0.058 0.020 * -0.007 0.009 0.137 Total number of disabilities -0.008 0.019 0.052 0.033 -0.044 0.013 * -0.068 0.049 0.003 0.023 0.355 Total number of removals 0.120 0.006 ** 0.224 0.009 ** -0.022 0.006 ** -0.057 0.012 ** -0.001 0.004 1.286 Total number of placements 0.902 0.005 ** 1.428 0.008 ** 0.288 0.003 ** 0.604 0.011 ** 0.044 0.002 ** 3.026 Voluntary placement -0.014 0.001 ** -0.023 0.001 ** -0.004 0.001 ** -0.002 0.001 -0.003 0.001 ** 0.045
Physical abuse -0.022 0.001 ** -0.053 0.002 ** 0.002 0.001 0.025 0.004 ** 0.002 0.002 0.149
Sexual abuse 0.005 0.001 ** 0.006 0.001 ** 0.001 0.001 0.013 0.002 ** 0.004 0.001 ** 0.052
Neglect 0.040 0.005 ** 0.029 0.008 ** -0.027 0.005 ** 0.152 0.014 ** 0.007 0.005 0.562
Removed due to child issue -0.012 0.001 ** -0.009 0.002 ** 0.033 0.002 ** 0.048 0.004 ** -0.006 0.001 ** 0.085 Removed due to parent issue 0.033 0.002 ** 0.074 0.003 ** -0.018 0.002 ** 0.037 0.005 ** -0.005 0.002 * 0.207 Number of removal reasons 0.121 0.006 ** 0.303 0.010 ** -0.044 0.005 ** 0.085 0.015 ** -0.019 0.006 * 1.709 Placed in non-relative foster
care -0.101 0.002 ** -0.061 0.003 ** -0.018 0.002 ** -0.294 0.004 ** 0.009 0.003 * 0.235
Placed in home setting -0.216 0.001 ** -0.196 0.002 ** -0.204 0.001 ** 0.177 0.007 ** 0.103 0.003 ** 0.194 Placed in congregate care -0.033 0.001 ** -0.057 0.002 ** 0.223 0.009 ** 0.122 0.006 ** -0.007 0.001 ** 0.138 Placed in independent living 0.027 0.001 ** 0.030 0.001 ** 0.025 0.002 ** 0.024 0.003 ** -0.003 0.000 ** 0.014
Runaway child 0.018 0.001 ** 0.021 0.001 ** 0.037 0.006 ** 0.026 0.003 ** -0.006 0.000 ** 0.017 y = predicted median _t in days (years) 1581.89 (4.33) 3532.27 (9.67) 4771.36 (13.08) 13836.5 (38.13) 7470.44 (20.52) ** <0.001; *<0.05
142
Appendix J: Speed of Discharge to Various Outcomes, Ranked by State
Table J.1: Speed of Discharge to Various Outcomes, Ranked by State
Permanency Reunification Adopt Guardianship Non-permanent
Faste
st
Wyoming * Wyoming * Washington * Wyoming * Arizona * Faste
st
South Dakota * New York * Idaho * Idaho * North Dakota *
New Jersey * South Dakota * New Mexico * South Dakota * Minnesota *
Idaho * New Jersey * Alaska * New Hampshire Kentucky *
New York * Idaho * Nevada * Oregon Tennessee *
North Dakota North Dakota Montana * New Jersey Wyoming * Tennessee Virginia South Dakota * Alabama Colorado * Iowa Alabama New Jersey * Indiana Idaho * Virginia Tennessee Indiana * Iowa * Delaware * Oregon South Carolina Oklahoma * Ohio * Ohio * Montana Oregon North Carolina * Pennsylvania * South Dakota *
Alabama Montana Texas * Delaware Wisconsin * Ohio Georgia Tennessee * Minnesota * Connecticut * Georgia Iowa Kansas * Montana * Virginia * Pennsylvania Ohio Louisiana * Florida * Mississippi * South Carolina Delaware Kentucky * Georgia * Nebraska * New Hampshire Mississippi Maine * Washington * Vermont * Indiana Kentucky Arkansas * Alaska * West Virginia * Connecticut Alaska Hawaii * Arkansas * Arkansas * Alaska North Carolina Ohio * Virginia * New Hampshire * West Virginia Pennsylvania Mississippi * Kentucky * Hawaii *
Kentucky * West Virginia Iowa * Wisconsin * Rhode Island *
Delaware Indiana New Hampshire Tennessee * Florida *
North Carolina * Colorado * Florida North Carolina * Kansas *
Washington * Louisiana South Carolina Colorado * Utah *
Mississippi * New Hampshire Georgia Connecticut * Georgia *
Louisiana * Washington * Arizona South Carolina * Indiana *
Colorado * Vermont Delaware Arizona * Pennsylvania *
Arizona * Michigan Connecticut Nebraska * Louisiana *
California * Arkansas * Wisconsin Hawaii * South Carolina *
Nebraska * Connecticut Alabama Nevada * California *
Michigan * Arizona * Oregon Mississippi * Alabama
Arkansas * Nebraska * Michigan California * Iowa
Wisconsin * California * Wyoming Michigan * Oregon
Texas * Maryland Utah * Oklahoma * Montana
Rhode Island Hawaii Pennsylvania * New Mexico * Oklahoma *
Hawaii * Massachusetts * Virginia * Utah * Nevada *
Nevada * Texas * West Virginia * Louisiana * Texas *
Vermont Rhode Island Massachusetts * Kansas * New Mexico *
Minnesota * Wisconsin * California * Missouri * North Carolina *
S
lowe
st
Oklahoma * Oklahoma * North Dakota * North Dakota * New Jersey *
S
lowe
st
Massachusetts * Florida * Missouri * Rhode Island * Massachusetts *
Maryland * Nevada Vermont * DC * Michigan *
New Mexico Minnesota * Minnesota * West Virginia * New York *
Florida * New Mexico Maryland * Texas * Maine *
Utah * Utah * Nebraska * Maine * Missouri *
DC * DC Rhode Island * Massachusetts * DC *
Maine * Maine * New York * Vermont * Washington *
Missouri * Kansas * Colorado * New York * Maryland *
Kansas * Missouri * Illinois * Maryland * Alaska *
Illinois * Illinois * DC * Illinois * Illinois *
* indicates the state discharges to outcome significantly faster/slower than predicted based on explanatory variables in hazard model. ~ The horizontal bar in each column is zero. States above the bar are taking less time to reach the outcomes, whereas states below the bar are taking longer.
143
Appendix K: Significant Predictors of Child Discharge Outcomes
Table K.1: Significant Predictors of Child Discharge Outcomes Permanency
Increased Likelihood Decreased Likelihood
Policy
Groups approved to adopt Kinship care in statute Placement rate per victim State Decentralized CW administrative structure Poverty rate Percent urban CW flow Family
Parental substance abuse Parental incarceration Unmarried parents Single mother Single father Child Age at removal Asian child
Hawaiian/Pacific islander child Voluntary placement
Physical abuse
Removal because of child issue Relative FC Home placement Congregate care Policy Adoption restrictions ASFA compliance
Relative preference in statute Payment generosity Expenditure generosity State Unemployment Child Black child
American Indian/Alaskan Native child Multiracial
High utilization county
Male
Disability
Mental retardation Physical disability Emotional disability Other medical disability Total number of removals Number of placements Sexual abuse
Neglect
Removed because of parent issue Number or removal reasons
IL
144 Table K.1 (continued)
Reunified
Increased Likelihood Decreased Likelihood
Policy
Groups approved to adopt Kinship care in statute Generosity of access State Decentralized CW administrative structure Poverty rate % urban CW flow Family
Parental substance abuse Parental incarceration Unmarried parents Single mother Single father Child Age at removal Asian child
Hawaiian/Pacific Islander child Hispanic child
Voluntary placement Physical abuse
Removal for child issue Relative FC Home placement Congregate care Policy Adoption restrictions ASFA compliance
Relative preference in statute Payment generosity Expenditure generosity State Unemployment Child Black child
American Indian/Alaskan Native child High utilization county
Disability
Mental retardation Physical disability Total number of removals Number of placements Sexual abuse
Neglect
Removed because of parent issue Number or removal reasons
IL
145 Table K.1 (continued)
Adoption
Increased Likelihood Decreased Likelihood
Policy
Groups approved to adopt ASFA compliance rate Generosity of access State Poverty rate % urban CW flow Family
Parental substance abuse Unmarried parents Single mother Single father Child
Disability
Total number of removals Voluntary placement Neglect
Removed because of parent issue Number of removal reasons Relative FC
Home placement
Policy
Adoption restrictions Relative preference in statute Payment generosity Expenditure generosity State Unemployment Decentralized CW administrative structure Family Parental incarceration Child Age at removal Black child
American Indian/Alaskan Native child Asian child
Hispanic child Multiracial child High utilization county
Male
Mental retardation Physical disability Emotional disability Other medical condition Number of placements Removed for child issue Congregate care
IL
146 Table K.1 (continued)
Other Permanency (i.e. Guardianship)
Increased Likelihood Decreased Likelihood
Policy Expenditure generosity Generosity of access State Decentralized CW administrative structure Poverty rate % urban CW flow Family
Parental substance abuse Parental incarceration Single mother Single father Child
Age at removal
Total number of removals Relative FC
Policy
Groups approved to adopt Adoption restrictions Relative preference in statute Payment generosity
State
Unemployment Child
Black child
American Indian/Alaskan Native child Hispanic child
Multiracial child High utilization county Number of placements Physical abuse Sexual abuse Neglect
Removed for child issue Removed for parental issue Number of removal reasons Home placement
Congregate care
IL
AOWL
Non-Permanent Outcome (i.e. Aged-Out)
Increased Likelihood Decreased Likelihood
Policy
ASFA compliance rate KC in statute
State
Decentralized administrative structure % urban CW flow Family Single mother Child Age at removal
American Indian/Native American child Hispanic
Voluntary placement Removed for child issue Congregate care
IL
AWOL
Policy
Adoption restrictions
Relative preference in placement Generosity of payment Generosity of expenditures Generosity of access State Unemployment Family
Parental substance abuse Child
Multiracial
High utilization county
Male
Disability
Number of placements Sexual abuse
147
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