4 The case of the LAPSSET Corridor
4.4 Further marginalisation or integration?
We can only make analysis based on what we know and make assumptions based on experiences. The oil production and the LAPSSET Corridor are only in their initial stages and it is therefore difficult to say if the objectives of equitable, socio-‐economic, people centred development with opportunities for everyone will materialise or not from the LAPSSET Corridor at this stage. However, as Mwakali et al. (2011: 6) notes “[i]t is a known fact that oil companies depend on massive outsourcing from the non-‐oil sector (predominantly international corporations). This means, therefore, that the latter to a large extent controls the former’s national content component.”
Also with regards to governance mechanisms and local communities’ concerns over environmental implications of the oil explorations and production it seems as if the community outside of the central core is voiceless. According to a Beach Management Unit (BMU) representative from Ssebagoro, whenever community members raise such concerns district officials reply that “oil is a national issue, and lower levels of government cannot influence what happens at the top” (de Kock 2012b: 37). This demonstrates the inefficiency and faulty of the so-‐called devolution and decentralisation policies in Uganda.
Current perceptions and discourses in the LAPSSET Corridor show concern about the future of their livelihoods, and fear about the disruption of communities as a consequence of the oil and infrastructure projects. Such perceptions and discourses offer important insights about the real processes on the ground. Therefore, the next section addresses discourses of marginalisation and uncertainty in the corridor.
4.4.1 (Discourses of) marginalisation and uncertainty in the LAPSSET Corridor
The oil discoveries in the region in examination in this study concern on-‐shore oil and natural gas discoveries. As the illustration above shows, they are also located in a historically unstable region; therefore it gives some association with the Niger Delta. The people living in the vicinity of the corridor are basically dependent on subsistence farming, cattle herding and fishing as livelihoods. The LAPSSET Corridor and the oil exploration and production are bound to have transformative effects on the broader eastern African region, and in particular on the regional space surrounding the corridor. This section highlights the way in which major extractive industry activities can impact on the political psychology of the residents affected by such operations.
Before the colonisation of Uganda, the Kingdom of Bunyoro was the largest and strongest kingdom in the country. However, with the arrival of the British, the Buganda kingdom on the northwest of Lake Victoria became the favourites of the colonial power and was strengthened at the expense of Bunyoro. Obote’s abolishment of Uganda’s four kingdoms11 in the 1960s was repealed only years after Museveni’s rise to power in
198612 (see Uganda Constitutional Commission 1995: Chapter 16). In the 1995
Constitution the kingdoms are reduced to cultural organisations and not allowed to involve themselves in politics. However, historical conflicts between the government and the kingdoms have seen the establishment of the Kings and Cultural Leaders Forum of Uganda which tries to lobby the government. In the case of the Bunyoro region in Uganda, where the biggest oil discoveries have been made so far, oil discoveries in the sub-‐region “have added a new level of frustration to already existent perceptions of political marginalisation” (de Kock 2012b: 26). A spokesperson for the Bunyoro people has said that the people has never been consulted about the oil developments in the area and that “[t]hey [the government] do not listen to us” (cited in de Kock 2012b: 26-‐27). It is therefore not surprising that many of the people in the area fear they will not have any stake in the oil development. Expressing frustration about the perception of the oil development and the future of the Bunyoro people, the spokesperson said: “We will only be left with holes, and pollution left behind after the oil is depleted” (cited in de Kock
11 These are the Kingdoms of Buganda, Ankole, Bunyoro and Toro.
12 The Ugandan kingdoms subject to the Republic of Uganda were restored by Amendment [No. 8] Act –
Statute No. 8, Article 118 (1) of 1993 by the Parliament of Uganda and further recognized and protected under the Constitution of the Republic of Uganda by Chapter IV – Article 37; Chapter XVI – Article 246 (1) and (6) of 1995 and by Amendment [No. 2] Act, Schedule V – Article 178.8 of 2005 and by the Act’s Supplement [No. 4] Act 6 of 2011.
2012b: 27). Complaints from a community representative from Ssebagoro landing site west of Hoima that the people of Bunyoro had not heard anything about region being compensated or receiving a share from the oil production, reinforces further the perception that the people are being sidelined in the oil development. As de Kock (2012b: 27) note: “What emerges is a discourse of political marginalisation, frustration at the lack of consultation, and a perception that the […] people will not benefit from the lucrative oil resources that has been discovered” in the region.
4.5 Conclusion
This Chapter has assessed the origins, dynamics and impacts of micro-‐ regionalism in a very special part of East Africa. The emphasis of the analysis has looked beyond formal institutional structures and policy strategies of the LAPSSET Corridor to include the underlying socio-‐economic and socio-‐cultural fabric in a broad sense. It has shown the importance of infrastructure in development and how it is linked to GDP, wealth creation and market penetration, but also how it may influence and change the geopolitics of East Africa. By investigating the local level, the chapter has illustrated that the LAPSSET Corridor and the oil production is likely to have a strong impact on existing regions, legacies of conflict and informal regional trade patterns. The chapter has also addressed contradictory motives for regionalisation and highlighted the significant and far reaching influence of the carbon industry, and its ability to influence politicians and political decision-‐making, to the benefit of the oil companies and at the expense of the state, but more so of the people. It has addressed structural weaknesses in resources revenue management on both national and global levels and concluded that the existing mechanisms are insufficient to ensure transparency and accountability.
The chapter has also assessed the development potential or other consequences for the people living in the area. It has identified objectives, which makes promises and allusions about sustainable development through employment and improved livelihoods, and contradictions to these objectives with regards to the marginalised people residing in the corridor. The funding mechanisms for the various components in the LAPSSET has been scrutinised and has revealed an incompatibility between the motivations of the private sector and the state. It has thereon concluded that elite interests in the state and the oil companies are driving the profit-‐maximising rationale of the LAPSSET.
The potential for participation in the development has so far proved to be minimal, and characterised by lack of transparency and inclusion into decision-‐making processes, suppression of public opinion and journalism, and exclusion of district and local representation. With regards to the involvement of the local labour force it has been revealed that the oil development and production is not a labour intensive sector, at least not for the medium term, and that the technical skills level of the labour force is inadequate, which means that these jobs will go to foreigners. It has shown that external actors have been important in developing necessary laws and regulations, but that this does not ensure national content ambitions. It can therefore be concluded that the various regionalising actors so far have failed to secure local participation and inclusive people-‐centred development. Based on a further assessment of discourses of marginalisation and uncertainty in the area this chapter has highlighted the impact on the political psychology of the residents in the regional space, and that the current oil and infrastructural development is adding a new level of frustration to already existent perceptions of marginalisation.
As noted by Marchand et al. (1999: 905-‐6), “it is only when we make deliberate attempts to connect the two broad processes of formal and informal regionalisms that we can get a clear picture of the connections between them. […] The point is that the outcome of these processes are highly unpredictable and most often there is more to these issues than meets the eye.” By connecting the formal with the informal this chapter has created an “understanding of the patterns of inclusion and exclusion, and by whom, for whom and for what purpose the various micro-‐regional processes develop in the corridor area” (Söderbaum 2004: 163).
Chapter 5
5
Conclusion
This study has focused upon regionalism theoretically and practically with a perspective on the regional oil and infrastructure project, LAPSSET in East Africa. The intention of the study has therefore been, first, to contribute to the theoretical discourse of critical reflectivist theorisation of regions as an alternative to the dominant mainstream rationalist body of studies on the subject. Secondly, the study has made a comprehensive case study assessment of an ongoing regional project in order to demonstrate the inherent complexities and contradictions within regions and processes of regionalisation. It has subsequently shown from a historicist point of view the continuously social construction, deconstruction and reconstruction of the regional space under scrutiny, identified the variety of regional actors and the main drivers involved in these regional processes.
The mainstream rational theories on regionalism have been dominating the area of research on regions since the end of the Second World War which makes the case for testing alternative approaches to regionalism. The rationalist theories are all to various degrees based on common assumptions of market orientation, state-‐ and Euro-‐centrism and a reductionist presumption with a status quo-‐bias. Therefore, as has been argued in this study, they fail to take into account dynamics and forces within the state-‐society complex and are subsequently neglecting essential regional activity within the regional space. The activities and strategies in the regional space assessed in this study are indeed highly complex and multileveled and as shown very often in contradiction with each other. In addition, they are intimately connected to the historical, political and socially constructed patterns of society on global, regional and local dimensions.
From a historical point of view the study has assessed the evolution of the state society relations. From global political structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) to regional and national contestations the historical overview in this study has shown the connections between centre-‐periphery from a global, regional and national perspective, and how political elites have manipulated such programmes in order to secure personal and political interests and power, also through military coercion. From this basis it is acknowledged that the political elites involved in the current regional projects are
promoting regionalism as a means to inclusionary and participatory socio-‐economic and democratic development. However, the study is sceptical about praising regionalism supported by regimes of an authoritarian and neo-‐patrimonial nature.
The case study of the LAPSSET Corridor as a case of micro-‐regionalism transcends the formal structures and policy strategies and includes an analysis of the underlying socio-‐cultural and socio-‐economic fabric of the regional space. It highlights the importance of infrastructure in development, creation of wealth and market integration but it also demonstrates potential implications for the regional geo-‐political situation. By including an assessment on oil production and the LAPSSET project in relation to the lower levels of regionalism it has revealed potential implications for existing legacies of contestation and informal cross border trade (ICBT) patterns.
Importantly, the study has uncovered inconsistent agendas for regionalisation illustrated, not least, by the tug of war between the Ugandan government and the oil companies, and how the carbon industry has been able to influence the political decision-‐making in Uganda in favour of the oil companies. The study has also revealed structural weaknesses on both global and national levels and its insufficiencies to ensure transparency and accountability. Finally the study has identified inconsistencies between the innuendoes of the participatory and developmental objectives and the profit-‐maximising rational of the LAPSSET project. In this regard it makes for a gloomy perception at least in the core oil industry. This insight is resonated by the experiences and discourses of marginalisation and uncertainty in the area.
Several findings have been made in this study of which three major conclusions can be drawn. First, the study of regionalism requires a holistic approach and a critical theoretical assessment that can provide for the historical origin of the regions and identify by whom, for whom and for what purpose regionalism is being pursued. It is also important to include a balanced focus on the relationship between structures and agencies and the possibilities for change in this regard. This has been emphasised in the theoretical framework applied in this study in which insights from the World Order Approach, the New Regionalism Approach and the New Regionalisms Approach/weave world have been combined. This combination has been essential to understand the social and historical structures in which various regionalisms are operating and different regional actors are shaping the region through their actions and motives. Secondly, the actors identified in this study are state elites, from both within and outside
the region; enemies of the state, such as the ADF and al-‐Shabaab; Western development organisations, like Oil for Development; CSOs such as PWYP, WWF, Platform, WDM and Global Witness; oil companies; the local population of the area, reacting against these processes, creating communal land owners’ associations; and the informal sector in trade and labour. Finally, this study has identified a mixed actor coalition consisting of political elites and external oil companies as the main drivers for regionalisation through the LAPSSET Corridor with oil production and exportation as the key incentive for enhanced regionalism. However, the findings in the study have revealed that the oil production has been highly influential in driving this regionalisation. The oil industry has had several functions in the current regionalisation in East Africa and has been elemental in the attraction of investors to the LAPSSET project. Most of the other regional actors have not been against the oil regionalisation per se, but their regional agendas have been defeated by the significant influence of carbon industry on political decision-‐making. In fact, as has been thoroughly emphasised the LAPSSET is rather exclusionary in nature, and it is likely that the future of the project will continue to create conflict of interests.
Despite the pessimistic predictions for the oil driven regional project, the current regionalisation in this particular region has revealed and made recognisable the perceived and real tensions and contradictory regionalisms in the area. The ongoing oil driven regionalisation must therefore also be understood as strengthening the agency of misrepresented and historically marginalised regional actors. CSOs like Save Lamu is creating awareness about the negative consequences of the construction of the port facilities for the people dependent on subsistence fishing. WWF attracts global attention to the environmental hazards of oil production, and are reacting against the secrecy and opaqueness of oil developments which put pressure on the government to avoid further scandals.
This study is necessarily incomplete due to the immaturity of the LAPSSET Corridor and the oil production in the region. It has been difficult to find relevant and reliable literature on the current oil development and the LAPSSET. Scholars from the school of NRA or other reflectivist branches have not yet published research on the new developments in the region. Most of the arguments are made on the basis of a historical understanding of the evolution of the political economy of the region and on empirically informed theories and emerging trends. The conclusion is quite pessimistic, but as
Thorbjørn Gaustadsæther (2014) argues “’structural changes’ need time to settle’ and referred to the oil county of Rogaland in western Norway as a comparison. If managed in the right and inclusive way the majority will benefit. As Cox (1995: 33) eloquently argues, “Structures are formed by collective human activity over time. Structures, in turn, mould the thoughts and actions of individuals. Historical change is to be thought of as the reciprocal relationship of structures and actors.” It will therefore be exciting to see how the developments will be investigated in the future.
This focus on the region in this study had to be limited to certain areas along the LAPSSET and included a historical overview of only two of the countries in the region. This was a choice made because of limited space and it is with regret that it could not provide a more broad based analysis for the region and include Ethiopia, South Sudan and Tanzania as well. A recommendation to further study is therefore to include the countries not analysed in this study. An interesting development as briefly addressed in Chapter 4 is the ongoing Tanzanian counterpart to the LAPSSET, the Mwambani Port and Railway Corridor (MWAPORT). It would have been very useful to make a comparison between these two corridors.
A second limitation to the study is the insufficient attention devoted to civil society involvement in the regionalisation. Although much of the research was made possible because of the engagement of the civil society and through interviews, this important regional actor is underrepresented in the study and an important contribution for further research should try to demonstrate how civil society fits into the oil and infrastructure development and the region as a whole. This is definitively an interesting topic and through the preparation for this study the plurality and ambiguity of the regional civil society was mentioned on several accounts. For instance, Florence Kyalimpa (2014) told me that there has developed a regional civil society cooperation as a result of the oil discoveries in the region.
A third recommendation for further study, which is currently very relevant for the region is the question about the licenses allocations. The license allocations are currently being negotiated and they will also be very relevant for the approach used in this study. This deserves to be put in the spotlight of future study.