Methodological reflections and future research

7.3.2.1 Data

A third and final debatable approach that is outlined in the introduction refers to the amplification of methodological and empirical rigor in terrorism research. Too often, terrorism studies barely meet a minimal standard of sound academic research. Although the lack of empirical data is to a certain extent understandable in this field, attempts should be made to find alternative ways. The use of police information as firsthand data, for instance, offers a unique insight into jihadist networks, as this dissertation illustrates. Especially since the principal objective is to illuminate behavior of subjects residing in these networks, the nature of police information enables me to have a significant close look at such behavior. The wiretaps in various studied police investigations for instance lay bare extremely covert behavior, which eventually appeared to be one of the most crucial sources of information. As already mentioned in the methodology chapter, this close observation of relatively concealed networks enabled me to identify processes that would have been unlikely to be identified with other data sources. This indicates the value of police files as a form of firsthand data (see also Sageman, 2014; Schuurman & Eijkman, 2013) and emphasizes the need to invest time into this type of labor- intensive research. In addition, terrorism studies relying on police data are often more quantitative in nature, such as the work by Brent Smith who uses FBI data to mainly conduct quantitative analyses (see for example Smith et al., 2002), whereas the current study is mainly qualitative in nature. This combination of police data and a qualitative approach makes this dissertation a unique contribution to the field of terrorism studies. Although police investigations contain information that is generally unparalleled within the field of terrorism studies, such data still come with several drawbacks that can affect the validity of the research findings. The first drawback in this thesis is the selection bias. At first sight the selection bias stems from the decision to purely focus on the Netherlands and the period 2000-2013. This means that the findings should only be interpreted in relation to that particular geographical area and that particular episode, and should not be used for generalization. Next to the bias in place and time, there is also a bias in content. The police do not investigate all jihadist networks, and not all activities conducted by the investigated networks are monitored, meaning that not all relevant issues to understand how jihadist networks operate are encapsulated in a police investigation. For this reason, a triangulation of data sources was used to partially overcome this selection bias. By additionally conducting trial observations and 51 interviews with key informants, the results are expended and the initial conclusions are nuanced. Yet, the validity of the research could have progressed if not only key informants were interviewed, but a sample of (former) jihadists as well. We have tried to reach out to some of them, but when it became clear that we would be unable to gather a representative sample, we abandoned the attempt. This decision was also enforced by the labor intensity of scrutinizing 28 voluminous police investigations. This is nonetheless unfortunate, because a useful sample of primary respondents could

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have improved our empirical concepts. Especially with regard to the central theme of

involvement in Chapters 5 and 6. Since these chapters focus to a certain extent on the

decision-making process and the moment a subject starts to affiliate with a jihadist network, it would have been better to incorporate the actual considerations of the subjects themselves. This particularly applies to the chapter on irregular immigrants, in which the attractiveness of a network and thus the preliminary stage is the main focus. Yet, police data usually contain information after the first association with a network, making it difficult to reconstruct what happened before. Although we tried to overcome this issue by interviewing key informants in asylum centers and detention centers, these interviews cannot indicate a causal relation. After all, we compare two different populations; a group of irregular immigrants involved in jihadist networks (police data) and a group of irregular immigrants and asylum seekers that are unconnected to jihadist networks (interviews). Future research should therefore explore alternative measures to reach out to primary respondents that could elaborate on the decision-making process that occurred prior to jihadist involvement. This way, studying alternative and less related research populations can be avoided, which increases the validity of the findings.

The foregoing reflection does not mean that the use of police information for academic purposes is inadequate. As advocated by Schuurman & Eijkman (2013) and Sageman (2014), confidential files can be an important data source. However, another disadvantage of police data is the lack of transparency. In the sense that the greater academic community is not able to verify the analyses in this thesis, because it is has no access to the data and we are not allowed to share the raw data with other scholars. As a result, our academic peers need to trust our judgment of the data without being able to see it for themselves. This inhibits academic exchange and obstructs peer feedback. As Sageman (2014) correctly argues, the assistance and willingness of the government is necessary in that respect, since they need to authorize scholars’ access to confidential sources. Besides few exceptions, this willingness is unfortunately too often lacking. The current thesis shows how important this type of research can be, and thereby heavily relies on the assistance of government officials in the Netherlands. The current research project is therefore an example to other countries how a government can aid academic research by removing several obstacles. Not only to support new research initiatives, but also to increase possibilities for academic replication. Since replication is one of the pillars of academic research, and the main reason for a comprehensive methodological justification as outlined in the methodology chapter, access to confidential data is important for academic progress.

7.3.2.2 Methodology

Another aspect concerns the analytical approach of empirical data and the justification thereof. Therefore, next to triangulation of data sources, this thesis also used multiple analyzing tools. The use of crime script analysis, for instance, is an innovative way to

lay bare the different opportunity structures in relation to foreign fighting attempts. At the same time it provides a suitable framework to present operational proceedings in a categorized and structural fashion. Likewise, the main advantage of social network analysis (SNA) is that it visualizes the qualitative research in a straightforward modus. Through SNA we quantified certain data, which enabled me to standardize particular findings, thus making it possible to compare extensive qualitative information in a more systematic and organized manner. Whereas the comparison of the different organizational structures would have been too elaborate and detailed when solely focusing on extensive qualitative output, the use of qualitative analyses is at the same time crucial for a representative picture of the data. An integration of both SNA and qualitative analyses is therefore highly recommended. Solely using SNA metrics could lead to misinterpretation of the data. The results illustrate that the underlying assumptions of SNA are not always accurate and may sometimes even appear to be short-sighted without the addition of qualitative data. Although qualitative assessments were already incorporated in Chapter 3 for this reason, there is another possibility to overcome the SNA issues. Namely, the findings from Chapter 3 should be combined with the findings from Chapter 4. This combination of SNA and crime script analysis has been advocated by several scholars (e.g., Duijn et al., 2014; Duijn & Klerks, 2014; Morselli & Roy, 2008) as a favorable mixed-method to combine the best of both worlds: the network’s procedural blueprint with the network’s communication outline. This combination can help to determine the human capital and therefore the most crucial players of network, which can be used for intervention. The paragraph Policy implications (7.3.3) will deal with this more in depth.

Another method is the use of Grounded Theory (GT) methods, which guided the majority of the research in this dissertation. GT methods are not accustomed use in terrorism studies, but have nonetheless major benefits due to the two underlying principles theoretical sampling and constant comparison. Whereas the former directed our data sampling, the latter enabled us to formulate concepts that would have been less likely to have emerged with a strictly deductive approach. Two examples can illustrate this. For instance, the preparation stages in the foreign fighting chapter directly emerged from the data and were initially identified as provisional categories. Only through constant comparison and theoretical sampling we found that these preparation stages were valid in each episode. The properties of these categories, however, differ between the episodes. The more data were gathered (i.e., theoretical sampling), the more properties could be added or redefined, thus identifying a difference in preparation over time. It is less likely that such concepts would have been developed through theory testing, because that requires familiarity with these stages beforehand. Knowing that the foreign fighting domain is a relatively novel field, this knowledge had yet to be developed. Likewise, the finding in Chapter 6 that involvement is an ongoing and unstable process, was found after constant comparison and theoretical sampling. It was only after we found that subjects constantly dealt with discouraging mechanisms

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that we started to compare such factors with encouraging mechanism and identified a transformation process in which encouraging mechanism converted into discouraging mechanism and vice versa. Also this process is new and not yet incorporated in existing theories, meaning that it would be less likely to have emerged via a deductive approach. Despite the value of the two GT principles, the methodology comes with certain drawbacks. First, the data that is gathered through theoretical sampling remains a selection. Theoretical saturation can also not be guaranteed, because it is very likely that additional data would have sharpened the findings. Although this may raise concerns about the generalizability of the findings, theoretical sampling could push a researcher to continue a seemingly endless sampling process that obstructs the process towards academic output. In other words, a balance must be found between continued sampling and academic output. Second, the nature of this research guided by GT principles remains explorative. Although with respect to originality it is an advantage that concepts emerge from the data, at the same time it limits the robustness of such findings when saturation cannot be guaranteed. More data is thus needed. Therefore, two suggestions can be made for future research. First, instead of starting from scratch, future qualitative research should build on the current thesis and use the findings as directives to conduct theoretical sampling. This way, more data is gathered that can validate, falsify, or redefine the current findings on a wider scale. Second, future research can also build on the current thesis through means of quantitative research. Instead of using the current findings to direct the sampling process, it can also be used to formulate hypotheses that can be tested accordingly. Both suggestions lead to a larger N which increases the chance to formulate more generalizable and validated conclusions. To conclude, despite challenges, the findings in this thesis are a valuable contribution to the field of terrorism studies. The findings are based on a wide range of data, varying from different sources, which enhances our empirical knowledge of jihadist networks. Furthermore, by reporting openly about the decisions made, methods used, and analyses applied, it tries to be as open as possible. Through these efforts it aims to abide to methodological justification, despite the fact that the data is classified. Such justifications are unfortunately rare in the current terrorism field, and future research is encouraged to adopt a similar reporting style.

7.3.2.3 Research questions

Next to methodological suggestions, recommendations regarding the direction of future research should also be made. The current thesis uses three central themes to depart from, but thereby consequently limits the area of research. Although this was the purpose of choosing central themes, other relevant themes are left untouched. For instance, with regard to terrorism related activities the main focus of this thesis is on foreign fighting and the dissemination of an extremist ideology, which means the preparations of terrorist attacks are omitted. Although the data does contain information on this issue, incidents are minor and therefore not a priority in this research. Nevertheless,

such violent activities are essentially the most threatening and identifying preparation stages of such acts could be very helpful to both academics and practitioners. Yet, confidential data will be of the essence in that regard and authorization by the government, as mentioned before, is therefore highly encouraged. Not only with regard to police data, but also regarding intelligence. Building on the need for intelligence data, such information is especially crucial when it comes to the preliminary preparation stages of all sorts of activities. The very first steps of potential terrorists are important to understand how the core operational activities will unravel later on. If we want to understand how these proceedings work, scholars should initially direct their research to the very first moment jihadist networks and people’s motivations emerge.

Furthermore, terrorist attacks can potentially be a follow-up to a foreign fighting experience, which is often emphasized by the government (NCTV, 2015a; AIVD, 2015). Future research should therefore focus more on the relation between returning foreign fighters and their potential threat to society. Currently this relation is often assumed, but not yet empirically investigated. Even in this research, which also incorporates subjects that left the Netherlands several times and returned, the potential threat of returning foreign fighters is not thoroughly evaluated. In that respect, future research should also add recent cases that focus on ISIS related foreign fighters. Since we have learned in the foreign fighting chapter that motivations and ideological rhetoric depend on the target area, the current orientation on ISIS controlled areas implies that different motivations could be at play momentarily. Future research should therefore compare former cases with ISIS cases to detect a possible difference in motivation and other proceedings, which consequently enables practitioners to respond.

Another recommendation is a comparison between countries. Although several attempts have already been made, comparisons of jihadist networks’ modus operandi are scarce. A comparison between countries could for instance shed light on this thesis’ finding that opportunity structures influence the MO of jihadists. For example, a comparison with case studies from the United States could indicate whether opportunity is indeed an essential factor in the decision to become a foreign fighter in Syria. Whereas Syria in comparison to Afghanistan is less complicated to reach for European foreign fighters, and thus increases the numbers of foreign fighters from European states, this logic may or may not apply to foreign fighters from the United States who at first sight have more logistical obstacles to take when they want to travel to any Middle Eastern state anyway. The question would therefore be whether the number of foreign fighters from the United States has increased and how this relates to the opportunity-structure.