3.2.1 Human Space Exploration Scenario
The developed methodology adopted for the definition of a reference scenario for future human space exploration is schematically described by the work flow reported in figure 3.2, highlighting all the main steps.
3.2 Methodology to support strategic decisions
Figure 3.2: Methodology for the assessment of reference HSE scenario
of the 2030 decade. Therefore the first step of the process consists in the assessment of a significant Mars mission to take as reference for the following analyses. In particu- lar NASA DRA 5.0 [3] is assumed as reference mission, selected among several others [4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9], mainly due to the completeness and accuracy of the available data. Although the mission as described by NASA DRA 5.0 is quite ambitious and has sev- eral weak points in its definition, all the considerations done within this study could be easily extended to other mission opportunities, which envisage a Mars human mission as final target. Indeed, the objective of this study is to demonstrate the importance and feasibility of developing a long-term strategy for capability evolution and technology
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development, when considering space exploration, and specifically to provide a general methodology to be followed in the assessment of a reference scenario. According to this, even if a di↵erent “easier” architecture (e.g. with a small number of crew members) or a di↵erent time opportunity (maybe a postponed time opportunity), were considered for the final mission to Mars, the considerations done in this study, and most of all the methodology developed, would still be valid and applicable. Prior to proceed with the definition of the intermediate missions, a detailed analysis of the NASA DRA 5.0 reference mission is necessary in order to identify the needed capabilities to accomplish that mission, where the term “capability” basically refers to a function that is likely to be implemented in a subsystem of an element. As a matter of fact, the whole study is based on a pure technical/performance approach, with no risk and cost analyses, as well as no political considerations: the driving criterion for the scenario definition is given by the capabilities required for the final reference mission to Mars. In particular, the idea behind the present study is to follow a gradual path in the expansion through the solar system, which can allow a stepwise technological development and capabilities achievement that can drastically reduce the risks and costs associated to a mission like NASA DRA 5.0.
The top-right branch of the diagram of figure 3.2 refers to the analysis of the interme- diate destinations to be included in the scenario. Firstly several possible destinations are identified and for them alternative “candidate concepts” are defined. For all the candidate concepts a list of capabilities is derived, starting from those required for Mars. At this point, combining the list of capabilities needed for Mars and for all the other destinations’ candidate concepts, a global capabilities map is built. Looking at this capabilities map, a down selection of a limited number of intermediate destinations concepts is performed, in order to reduce and simplify the overall scenario. Once the intermediate destinations concepts have been selected, quite a detailed characterization of all the missions to be part of the scenario is done, in terms of strategy, missions, architectures and elements. The final result is an overall scenario of exploration, which includes many missions, both human and robotic, which are conceived to allow a grad- ual implementation and achievement of the capabilities required to accomplish the reference human mission to Mars by the end of 2030s.
3.2 Methodology to support strategic decisions
3.2.2 Enabling Technologies Assessment
The second part of the work focuses on the technologies’ analysis. It is worth under- lining that the final goal is the implementation of a flexible tool applicable to di↵erent final destinations (not only to the proposed scenario), in order to support strategic decisions for future space exploration specifically in terms of technologies roadmaps. This part of the work, with all the relevant analyses and assessments, tries to answer the following questions:
• What are all the technologies that can be implemented in the future HSE mis- sions?
• In which HSE missions/elements these technologies are absolutely required? • In which HSE missions/elements these technologies could be implemented and
tested?
• What are the most required and applicable technologies?
Specifically, the methodology developed and followed for the identification of the inno- vative and promising not yet fully space qualified technologies and for the analysis of their applicability on the elements of the proposed reference HSE scenario is schemat- ically described by the work flow reported in figure 3.3.
The box on the left side of figure 3.3 represents the last step of the methodology devel- oped for the HSE reference scenario definition (see section 3.2.1 for the details), which indeed represents an input for the definition of the technologies roadmaps tool (right side of figure 3.3).
The process starts from the development of a technologies database. The most impor- tant and innovative technologies are identified, by means of an accurate review of the major space agencies recent documents on capabilities and technologies assessments and roadmaps [3, 10, 11, 12, 13]. Quite a detailed database is built, which collects a large number of innovative technologies, grouped in technological areas and sub-areas. Then a technologies mapping is carried out, including three main steps. First, an ap- plicability map is developed to map the technologies on the elements of the reference scenario. Then, the technologies are mapped on the destinations of the scenario. Fi- nally, a list of the “most required” technologies is derived, showing when and in which
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Figure 3.3: Methodology for the definition of technologies roadmaps
mission elements each technology is needed (technologies roadmaps). As last step of the process, the level of contribution of each mission concept to the demonstration of technologies needed for the reference Mars mission is evaluated.
Chapters 4 and 5 report more details about all the procedure steps, and present the most important obtained results.