Mixed methods design

The literature states that there are a number of different reasons for utilising a mixed methods approach (e.g. Creswell and Clark, 2011, Greene et al., 1989). This thesis utilises expansionist reasoning, which seeks to ‘extend the scope, breadth and range of inquiry by using different methods for different inquiry components’ (Greene et al., 1989: 269). As it was stated in the previous section, the underlying phenomenon to be investigated in this thesis is the communication, tailoring and use of climate projections for adaptation planning. The aim is therefore to look at the interplay between those three components and integrate qualitative and quantitative methods to create a more pragmatic understanding of the phenomenon (Greene et al., 1989).

Whilst a number of different typologies have been created for mixed methods research (Creswell and Clark, 2011, Greene et al., 1989, Leech and Onwuegbuzie, 2009, Tashakkori and Teddlie, 2010), the three dimensions defined by Leech & Onwuegbuzie (2009): time orientation, level of mixing and emphasis of approaches will be used to further describe the research approach taken in this thesis.

This research adopts a fixed mixed methods design (Creswell and Clark, 2011), which was planned at the outset of the research to follow three phases of data

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collection and analysis. Each phase links to one of the first three research objectives outlined in Section 1.3 and required different data collection and analysis methods. Figure 1-2 presents a schematic diagram highlighting the overall design of this thesis. The approach taken was thus largely sequential, as each phase followed on from the previous (Leech and Onwuegbuzie, 2009). However, due to the nature of some of the data preparation and collection methods, parts of the phases overlapped on two occasions. Firstly, the climate data preparation process was very time consuming and thus needed to be started early on in the research and secondly, the interviews in England commenced whilst the online survey in Germany was still open.

Figure 1-2 This schematic presents an overview of the research design for this thesis.

Figure 1-2 also shows that each stage only drew on either qualitative or quantitative methods. Whilst the convenience sampling (Onwuegbuzie and Collins,

2007) employed for the interviews in phase 3 was based on the surveys conducted in phase 2, both methods were not fully mixed within or across stages until the overarching interpretation stage for Objective 4 (Leech and Onwuegbuzie, 2009). This thesis is therefore a partially mixed study (Leech and Onwuegbuzie, 2009). Lastly, two of the three research objectives used qualitative data and only one used quantitative data. Whilst this gives qualitative data a more dominant status, it shall, nevertheless, be stressed that both quantitative and qualitative data were equally as valuable in achieving the overarching research aim.

A detailed overview of the different research objectives, questions, data collection and analysis methods is provided in Table 1-1. Most of the detailed description for the data collection and data analysis methods for research objectives 1, 2 and 3 are outlined in the respective chapters. The following section will only expand on two issues relevant to this research in more detail (the case study approach and the process for preparing the climate projections data used in Chapter 3), as the word count restrictions placed on the accepted/ submitted papers upon which Chapters 2, 3 and 4 are based, did not allow for extensive details on these.

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Table 1-1 Overview of the research objectives and the respective data collection and analysis methods Main research

objective

Research questions Data required Data collection

method

Data analysis method

1) Assess how European National Adaptation Strategies communicate physical climate uncertainties.

a) How can the extent to which physical science uncertainties are communicated in NAS be

compared more

systematically?

Information from previous research on how the

communication of

uncertainty can be assessed

Literature search Review of previous uncertainty assessment frameworks, reflection on gaps in prior studies Conceptualisation of novel Uncertainty Assessment

Framework b) How much detail on the

physical science of climate change and its associated uncertainties is included in the NAS?

Information on the types of

physical science

uncertainties covered in the NAS Review of 10 European NAS (publicly available in English) Content analysis through thematic coding according to the categories identified in the previously developed uncertainty assessment framework (UAF)

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Main research objective

Research questions Data required Data collection

method

Data analysis method

c) What impact does the wider socio-political context within which NAS are conceptualised have on the communication of physical science uncertainties in them?

Information from previous research on development and context of climate change (adaptation) policy in Germany and the UK

Literature search Reflection on previous studies and synthesis of impacts found on the communication of physical science uncertainty not previously highlighted

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Main research objective

Research questions Data required Data collection

method

Data analysis method

2) Test the association between comprehension and preferences for different tailored visualisations of climate projections by individual adaptation practitioners in local government in the UK and in Germany.

a) How can the effectiveness of visualisations of climate visualisations be tested empirically?

Climate model data for the development of example climate visualisations

CMIP5 download and file preparation

through the

programmes IDL and R in order to extract climate projections for a specific location

Climate data extraction to create 'alternative' and 'traditional' visualisations for the survey using the same underlying data

b) How do different graph formats for visualising climate projections affect assessed comprehension?

Data on the assessed comprehension (AC) for different visualisations

Online survey presenting two pairs of visualisations

Statistical analysis to compare the AC within pairs of visualisations

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Main research objective

Research questions Data required Data collection

method

Data analysis method

c) How are assessed and perceived comprehension associated?

Data on the AC and perceived comprehension (PC) for different visualisations

Online survey presenting two pairs of visualisations

Statistical analysis to assess associations between AC and PC

d) How is (assessed and perceived)

comprehension

associated with the use of the visualisations?

Data on the AC, PC and respondents' subjective preferences for using the visualisations

Online survey presenting two pairs of visualisations Statistical analysis to assess associations between AC and PC, and respondents' subjective preferences

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Main research objective

Research questions Data required Data collection

method

Data analysis method

3) Examine the extent to which the wider (political, legal and regulatory) context within which local adaptation planning is placed influences the use of climate projections at the local level in North Rhine Westphalia in Germany and the South East and East Midlands regions of the UK.

a) How are climate projections used in local adaptation planning?

Information on the extent to which adaptation practitioners use climate projections Semi-structured interviews to explore views of adaptation practitioners on using climate projections

Planning and climate change (adaptation) documents for interviewees' local governments to assess inclusion and detail on climate projections

Thematic coding of interviews to identify levels of use of climate projections

Reflection on planning and climate change documents

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Main research objective

Research questions Data required Data collection

method

Data analysis method

b) What characterises the wider institutional context within which local adaptation planning takes place?

Information on the status of adaptation at local level in Germany and the UK and the wider institutional framework (regulations, policies, legislation) within which it is implemented Semi-structured interviews to understand the wider institutional influences on local adaptation Literature search Thematic coding of interviews to identify the effect of the wider institutional setting Reflection on previous studies

c) How do institutional context and the use and usability of climate projections for adaptation planning interact? Information on institutional influences on climate information usability Semi-structured interviews to understand the wider institutional influences on the use and usability of climate projections Literature search

Thematic coding of interviews to identify constraining and enabling factors in the external institutional framework for the use of climate projections Reflection on previous studies

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Main research objective

Research questions Data required Data collection

method

Data analysis method

4) Evaluate the communication, tailoring and use of climate projections for adaptation planning.

Information and findings gathered through objectives 1, 2 and 3.

Reflection on the combined findings and lessons to be learned for the communication, tailoring and use of climate projections for adaptation planning