The review of the empirical literature, reported in the previous section, confirms the earlier discussion that the development of middle school students’ interest in statistical literacy should be influenced by factors related to both the individual and the situation. In relation to the individual, the literature review confirms
the MDL’s prediction that prior knowledge should be closely associated with interest. The review also highlights the importance of students’ self-competency beliefs on interest development. In relation to situational factors, the literature review has highlighted the importance of good pedagogical practice and social interaction on interest development. Such situational factors are ultimately related to the classroom teacher. The discussion in this section builds upon the earlier sections in the chapter and proposes a model of interest development that is specific to the middle school statistical literacy context.
In a middle school context, it is hypothesised that students’ interest in statistical literacy will be influenced by their self-efficacy beliefs and their prior knowledge. These relationships, in turn, will be mediated by a number of teacher and individual factors. The proposed inter-relationships between these factors are described below.
Self-efficacy beliefs
Students’ beliefs regarding their competency can be assessed through a
construct termed self-efficacy, which is defined as “beliefs in one’s capabilities to organise and execute the courses of action required to produce given
attainments” (Bandura, 1997, p. 3). This construct is future orientated (Bong & Skaalvik, 2003) and is typically assessed through items that ask students to indicate their level of confidence in achieving specific rather than general tasks. Of all the psychosocial factors, self-efficacy is considered to be one of the best predictors of achievement in an educational context (Robbins et al., 2004). Consequently it is likely that self-efficacy will provide more insight into middle school students’ interest development than other measures of students’
self-competency beliefs.
Silvia (2003) argued that the relationship between self-efficacy beliefs and interest is complex. On the basis that interest emerges from collative sources, he
argued that students who are uncertain about their ability to complete a task will be more interested in that task. Silvia reasoned that this uncertainty will be present for intermediate levels of self-efficacy: Students low in self-efficacy are certain that they cannot do the task and those high in self-efficacy are certain that they can do the task. In a series of experiments Silvia demonstrated a quadratic link between self-efficacy and interest. Such a quadratic relationship may have been evident in a study by Gehlbach et al. (2008) who reported that increased levels of interest are associated with decreased levels of self-efficacy. Students were less self-efficacious with respect to novel and complex tasks, yet these tasks were of most interest. It is argued, therefore, that students’
self-efficacy beliefs will be associated with their interest but not linearly.
Prior achievement
The MDL predicts that the development of interest in statistical literacy should coincide with the development of knowledge of related statistical concepts. Measures of students’ prior achievement, in as much as they are valid measures of knowledge, should directly predict levels of interest in statistical literacy. Such measures, however, will also be used by students as they form their self-efficacy beliefs. Thus prior achievement, in as much as it is an accurate reflection of a student’s ability, should also directly influence his or her self-efficacy beliefs.
Teacher factors
As discussed in the research review, a middle school student’s need for autonomy and social-relatedness is very much constrained by the classroom environment, of which the teacher is the primary architect. If the needs of a student can be met from this environment, then the student may indicate
Connectedness to the classroom can be regarded as a subset of school connectedness, a concept that has been extensively researched (Townsend & McWhirter, 2005; Whitlock, 2006). McNeely and Falci (2004) argued that there are two major dimensions of school connectedness: teacher support and social belonging. They found that teacher support, rather than social belonging, influences pro-social behaviors: A perceived lack of teacher support correlates with delinquency behaviours. It is expected, therefore, that teacher support will have the greatest influence on achievement-based behaviours. Klem and
Connell (2004) proposed three components of teacher support: involvement with the students, provision of autonomy for the students, and the provision of structure. In relation to the last, Kunter et al. (2007) reported that students’ perception of rule clarity predicts later levels of subject interest. It is
hypothesised, therefore, that teacher factors, of which perceived teacher support is primary, will directly influence students’ interest. As social persuasions are known to influence students’ self-efficacy beliefs (Usher & Pajeres, 2006), it is argued that teacher support will also influence students’ interest indirectly through their self-efficacy beliefs.
Individual factors
Interest development occurs as the result of a number of factors specific to the individual. Some, such as their achievement in statistical literacy, and their self-efficacy in statistical literacy, have been discussed already. There are a number of other individual factors, however, that should influence interest development, although in some cases this influence may be indirect through students’ prior achievement. These factors include their current personal
interests, their goals, their age, their gender and the frame of reference they use to make self-assessments of interest.
been discussed at length in Section 3.1. There is evidence to suggest that age is also a factor that influences reported interest levels of middle school students, although the direction of this influence is not altogether clear. As was reported in Section 2.3, there tends to be a decline in interest as students progress through the middle school. Yet, the MDL predicts an increase in students’ interest in statistical literacy as they gain knowledge in the domain; presumably such knowledge increases as students progress through the middle school.
Gender is also likely to influence middle school students interest in
statistical literacy, although it is unclear whether boys or girls will report higher average levels of interest. In their meta-analysis of interest based studies,
Schiefele et al. (1992) reported that the association between achievement and interest is stronger for males than females. Such a difference could be
attributed to broad gender differences in students’ personal interests, which have been explored in a number of contexts. In a science education context, for example, Jenkins and Pell (2006) reported that girls are more likely to be interested in topics that deal with the self and the natural world, whereas boys are more interested in topics that deal with destructive technologies. In relation to career interest (Holland, 1985), Lubinski, Benbow, and Morelock (2000) reported that girls are significantly more likely to favour social and aesthetic careers, while boys are likely to favour economic and political careers. In a statistical literacy context, if teachers present the statistics in a context that generally conflicts with these gender differences, then it is possible that this will result in gender differences in students’ levels of interest. In a learning context, gender differences in reported interest can also result from known gender stereotypes that are associated with the subject. Several authors report a gender stereotype associated with mathematics that associates high
performance with males (Kiefer & Sekaquaptewa, 2007; Ryan & Ryan, 2005; Smith, Sansone, & White, 2007). In a study of undergraduate females, Smith et al. (2007) reported that women who are anxious about their performance in
mathematics are more susceptible to the influence of gender stereotypes associated with the subject and as a result adopt performance avoidance goals and report lower levels of interest. It is unclear; however, whether mathematics related gender stereotypes apply in the statistical literacy context.
The frame of reference that students use to make self-assessments of interest may also vary from person to person and influence their ratings of interest. In order to explain somewhat contradictory results in mathematics and verbal achievement – strong within-domain associations between
self-concept and achievement but zero or negative cross-domain associations – Marsh (1986) proposed that students make self-assessments of their
achievement using two frames of reference. They either compare their
achievement with others in their class, an external frame of reference, or they compare their achievement with their own achievement in other circumstances, an internal frame of reference. More recently, Goetz, Frenzel, Hall and Pekrun (2008) investigated the influence of the frame of reference on the relationship between enjoyment and achievement. They reported similar results to those of Marsh and colleagues: strong within domain associations between enjoyment and achievement but negative cross-domain associations. These results suggest that the frame of reference might be applicable to students’ ratings of interest.
The preceding discussion identified key factors that it is hypothesised influence middle school students’ interest in statistical literacy. These factors and their proposed inter-relationships are shown in Figure 3.2, where straight arrows represent linear effects and curved arrows represent quadratic effects.