B. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3. ONGOING PROGRESS TOWARDS STRATEGIC GOALS
3.1 Monitoring Progress Towards Strategic Goals
An essential tool for maximising the contribution of the Community’s assistance towards its strategic goals is being able to monitor the impact of current interventions: not just in terms of inputs (e.g. financial contributions and what these are spent on) but also, ultimately, outcomes and impacts. This is not straightforward. At the level of countries and regions, it is rarely possible to separate out the effects of any single donor’s activities. The impact of any activities, whether entirely domestic or supported by donors, may also take varying amounts to time to show through in measurable form. Nevertheless, the Community is committed to a results-based approach and is working closely with others to develop methods to facilitate this. The strategic goals mirror the complexity of EC development programmes with a broad range of goals from poverty reduction to developing and consolidating democracy and the rule of law, respect for Human Rights and fundamental freedoms. Naturally the wide range of objectives pose a great challenge in constructing a coherent and transparent system for monitoring results in various areas.
3.1.1. Monitoring Progress Towards Development Goals
As explained in Chapter 1, the key development outcomes that the Community is working to achieve between now and 2015, along with the rest of the international community, are the Millennium Development Goals.
There is an intense global effort underway to monitor progress towards these, involving many different organisations, and it is essential to ensure coordination and complementarity between them. The ‘Millennium Project’ launched by the UN in 2002 should contribute to this, by bringing together working groups of experts to propose best strategies for meeting the MDGs. The Commission is working to support the improvement of national statistical systems, in low-income countries usually in the context of Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) monitoring support, and aims wherever possible to do so in conjunction with other donors. In particular, the Commission is working closely with PARIS 21 (Partnership in Statistics in the 21st Century - a multi donor initiative to support statistical and data systems in developing countries) and its task team on improving statistical support for monitoring development goals.
3.1.2. Defining Core Development Indicators to Measure Progress
During 2002, the Commission has worked with an expert group of Member States and other interested parties, including the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC), UNDP and the World Bank, to develop a core set of 10 indicators drawn from the MDGs. Of these 10 indicators, 6 are directly related to the well being of children, while three have a specific gender dimension.
The Commission intends to monitor progress against these indicators annually for all developing countries to which it provides assistance.In addition, Country Strategy Papers will also measure progress against a wider range of country-specific indicators, which should reflect the focal sectors identified in the CSP as well as overall movements in poverty. For low-income countries, these should be drawn from the country’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (where one has been completed).
Tracking these indicators will give a solid basis for the Commission’s political and policy dialogue with national authorities, as well as enhancing its ability to fine-tune the strategy in response to developments.
The indicators chosen for cross-country monitoring are the following:
Type Indicator Suggested
periodicity
Impact Proportion of population below $1 per day39
Prevalence of underweight children (under-five years of age) Under-five mortality rate40
Medium- term Medium- term Medium- term Outcome Net enrolment ratio in primary education41
Primary Completion Rate 42
Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education
Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel43 Proportion of 1 year old children immunised against measles HIV prevalence among 15-24 year old pregnant women44 Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Medium- term
39 For monitoring country poverty trends, indicators based on national poverty lines should be used where available
40 The under five mortality rate is the number of children who will die before their fifth birthday out of every 1000 babies who are born (officially defined as the probability of dying between birth and exactly five years of age, expressed per 1000 live births)
41 The percentage of primary school age children that enrol in primary education.
42 The near-equivalent MDG indicator is ‘proportion of pupils beginning the first year in the primary education and completing the fifth year.’
43 Data on “maternal mortality ratio” are infrequent, model-based and lack quality. A good proxy is provided by “births attended by skilled health personnel”
44 Reported as prevalence in women in general, but in fact these data are derived from surveys of pregnant women in antenatal clinic
GDP per capita and GDP growth will also be monitored in every country. More details of the Commission’s approach can be found in its ‘Guidelines on the use of indicators to measure country performance’.45
3.1.3. Analysis of Progress Towards the MDGs
In late 2002/early 2003, the Commission carried out a first analysis of progress towards the MDGs using the above indicators. This was done for 140 countries in 8 regions where the Community provides assistance, in order to allow a cross-country and cross-regional comparison46. This analysis used data provided by international organisations including the World Bank, UNDP, FAO, UNICEF, UNESCO and WHO47. Although the availability of data is improving, there are still gaps that limit the number of countries where it is possible to measure the evolution over the last five or ten years. The quality of data also varies between indicators. It is especially insufficient on the lead poverty indicator of “proportion of population below $1 per day” (so the proxy of GDP per capita was used instead) and “primary school completion rate”.
The diamond charts below illustrate the results of this analysis for the different regions, on four indicators simultaneously: under five mortality rate, primary school enrolment, access to improved water source and GDP per capita. The values used to build these graphs are generally those from the year 2000. A value of 100 represents the developing world average, so a score above this indicates that the region’s performance is above average. A value of 100 represents the developing world average, so a score above this indicates that the region’s performance is above average. These averages (a score of 100) are equivalent to:
75/1000 for under-five mortality rate (year 2000)
87% for primary school enrolment ration (most recent year) 77% for access to an improved water source (year 2000)
US$ 1129 for GDP per capita, measured in constant 1995 dollars (year 2000)
With regard to the under-five mortality rate, a higher figure in the chart represents a better performance (a lower under-five mortality rate
45 EC, December 2002 (http://europa.eu.int/comm/development/sector/poverty_reduction/index_en.htm). 46 Africa (48), Asia (19), Balkans (5), Caribbean (15), Eastern Europe and Central Asia (10), Latin
America (17), Pacific (14) and South Mediterranean, Near and Middle East (12). In each region, some countries are missing quite regularly. For Asia region, indicators are calculated with or without China. 47 In case of significant contradiction between sources, arbitration is done taking into account general date
AFRICA 51 72 64 45 51 72 64 45
GDP per capita constant year 2000
Improved w ater source (% of population w ith access)
School enrollment, primary (% net) Under 5 mortality rate (reversed)*
ASIA
114
106
102 66
GDP per capita constant year 2000
Improved w ater source (% of population w ith access)
School enrollment, primary (% net) Under 5 mortality rate (reversed)*
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
100 113
69
107
GDP per capita constant year 2000
Improved w ater source (% of population w ith access)
School enrollment, primary (% net) Under 5 mortality rate (reversed)*
LATIN AMERICA
221
112 111 351
GDP per capita constant year 2000
Improved w ater source (% of population w ith access)
School enrollment, primary (% net) Under 5 mortality rate (reversed)*
South Mediterranean & Near & Middle East
139 101
115 157
GDP per capita constant year 2000
Improved w ater source (% of population w ith access)
School enrollment, primary (% net) Under 5 mortality rate (reversed)*
BALKANS
78
125 134 383
GDP per capita constant year 2000
Improved w ater source (% of population w ith access)
School enrollment, primary (% net) Under 5 mortality rate (reversed)*
PACIFIC
86
100 62 99
GDP per capita constant year 2000
Improved w ater source (% of population w ith access)
School enrollment, primary (% net) Under 5 mortality rate (reversed)*
CARIBBEAN
154 106
105 150
GDP per capita constant year 2000
Improved w ater source (% of population w ith access)
School enrollment, primary (% net) Under 5 mortality rate (reversed)*
3.1.4 Key Findings
The most persistent poverty and the widest gaps are found in sub-Saharan Africa, which will struggle most as a region to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Development efforts in the region are being undermined by other challenges, such as the spread of communicable diseases, new and ongoing conflicts and crises and, in late 2002 and 2003, serious food shortages. Whilst sub-Saharan Africa will struggle most, as a region, to achieve the MDGs, they are not just an African issue. The UN Secretary General’s 2002 Report on the Implementation of the UN Millennium Declaration highlighted marked differences between and within regions48.
48 2002 Report of the Secretary-General on the Implementation of the UN Millennium Declaration (A/57/270). http://millenniumindicators.un.org/unsd/mi/mi_worldregn.asp
The diamond charts show that, whilst development is fairly symmetrical across the four indicators considered in regions with lower incomes, this pattern does not always apply to the more prosperous regions. In Africa, which is comprised almost entirely of low income countries as reflected by a level of national income (GDP) at 51% of the average, performance on the other indicators is also around 50-70% of average, although under five child mortality is particularly high. In Asia and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Pacific, where income is still relatively low, overall performance on the other indicators is above average. The South Mediterranean and Near and Middle East and Caribbean regions are composed of countries that are considerably better off than average, and performance on the other development indicators is also better than average. Latin America is made up of middle-income countries, and here GDP is way above average, with performance on the indicators also well above average and near the maximum possible for school enrolment (115%). The pattern in the Balkans shows very good performance on reducing under- five mortality in these mostly lower middle income countries, and surprisingly poor performance on school enrolment.
The graphs show for example that at the end of 2000 the level of school enrolment in the Balkans, Latin America, Caribbean or even Mediterranean countries is far lower than the level of GDP per capita would have led to expect49.
Access to water remains a problem for most regions, in particular the Pacific and Caribbean countries.
Concerning under-five mortality rate, whilst the situation in Africa and Asia is particularly worrying, the situation in Latin America and MEDA countries is less that could be expected given their level of GDP per capita.
Key findings that relate to the 6 priority areas of the Community’s assistance are discussed below. Water is covered in the Special Feature.