Figure I.1: By 2015, many countries will still not have reached the EFA goals
Percentage of countries projected to achieve a benchmark for five EFA goals by 2015
Notes: Countries are assessed as having reached the target if they have achieved a pre-primary education gross enrolment ratio of 80% (goal 1); a primary education adjusted net enrolment ratio of 97% (goal 2); a lower secondary education adjusted net enrolment ratio of 97% (goal 3); an adult literacy rate of 97% (goal 4); a gender parity index between 0.97 and 1.03 at primary and lower secondary education respectively (goal 5). The analysis was conducted on the subset of countries for which a projection was possible.
Source: Bruneforth (2013).
Percentage of countries: very far from target far from target close to target reached target Pre-primary education Goal 1 21 24 7 48 Primary education Goal 2 12 25 7 56 Lower secondary education Goal 3 10 34 10 46 Adult literacy Goal 4 37 22 12 29 Primary education gender parity Goal 5 7 14 9 70 Lower secondary education gender parity 21 16 7 56
but only 5 in 10 countries are likely to reach this target. For the third EFA goal, skills for young people and adults, universal lower secondary education can be taken as one measure of progress towards ensuring that all young people have foundation skills, but fewer than 5 in 10 countries will have reached this level by 2015. It is even more difficult to estimate the number of countries still to achieve the sixth EFA goal, improving the quality of education to ensure that all are learning. To help give education quality the greater focus that it deserves after 2015, this Report proposes ways to strengthen international and regional assessments so that progress towards a global learning goal can be measured. New analysis for this Report vividly underlines the fact that the most marginalized have continued to be denied opportunities for education over the past decade. In 62 low and middle income countries, the richest urban young men had spent more than 9.5 years in school by 2010 in low income countries and more than 12 years in lower middle income countries. But the poorest rural young women had spent fewer than 3 years in school in both low and lower middle income countries, leaving them well below the 6-year target that is associated with universal primary completion, which is supposed to be achieved by 2015.
Although the percentage of girls from the poorest rural households entering school in sub-Saharan Africa grew over the decade, their primary school completion rate fell from 25% in the early 2000s to 23% in the late 2000s. Similarly, the rate of lower secondary school completion fell from 11% to 9% for this disadvantaged group.
Unless special efforts are urgently taken to extend educational opportunities to the marginalized, the poorest countries may take several generations to achieve universal completion of primary and lower secondary education as well as universal youth literacy, according to new analysis for this Report. In sub-Saharan Africa, if recent trends continue, the richest boys will achieve universal primary completion in 2021, but the poorest girls will not catch up until 2086 – and will only achieve lower
The gap between the EFA goals and what has actually been achieved shows that additional resources must be better targeted at those most in need. Many of the success stories of the past few years can be traced back to a strong commitment by some of the poorest governments to invest in education. The global share of public expenditure devoted to education increased from 4.6% to 5.1% of gross national product (GNP) between 1999 and 2011, with the largest increases in low income countries.
Many low and middle income countries have the opportunity to expand their education spending still further. This Report estimates that a modest increase in tax-raising efforts, combined with growth in the share of government budgets allocated to education, could help raise education spending by US$153 billion by 2015 in 67 countries, a 72% increase from 2011 levels.
The Dakar Framework for Action included a commitment that no country should be left behind due to lack of resources. A failure by donors to keep this promise has left an education financing gap of US$26 billion per year in some of the world’s poorest countries. There are signs that this gap will widen further. Between 2010 and 2011, aid to basic education declined for the first time, by 6%, with low income countries bearing the brunt. It is forecast that many low income countries will see their levels of aid cut further by 2015.
Experience over the past decade of monitoring progress towards the EFA goals offers vital lessons for designing a post-2015 education framework. Goals must be accompanied by clear, measurable targets and indicators. The progress of subgroups must be measured to make sure the most disadvantaged not only advance, but also narrow the gap between them and the more privileged. Post-2015 education goals will only be achieved if governments and aid donors also set specific targets for education financing, with a focus on the poorest, and demonstrate the leadership and political will necessary to keep
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Tough conditions: At a primary school in Baqir Shah, a village in Sindh, Pakistan, classes take place outside because the buildings collapsed years ago.
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edit: Amina Say
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Education for All Global Monitoring Report