economic status alternately of life-cycle stage, distance
from the CBD, and regional contagion, i.e. within the latter
s e t of three, r egi on a l contagion i s the best and l i f e - c y c l e stage i s the worst secondary p r e d i c t o r . In Sydney however, the simple c o r r e l a t i o n between ^ALP and socio-economic
s t a t u s i s unchanged by the a d d i t i o n of e i t h e r l i f e - c y c l e stage or distance from the CBD, but i s increased by the a d d i t i o n of reg i o n a l contagion. So f a r the hypothesis
i s supported, but f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s i s required. Because of the c o r r e l a t i o n s above, then i n the next s ecti on the
r e l a t i o n s h i p s f o r Melbourne alone are examined.
Co rrelation Variables Me lb . Syd.
( a ) Simple %ALP & S0$ - . 7 9 6 .898
Multiple $ALP/ S0$ & LCS .901 . 9 0 0
n $ALP/ S0$ & dCBD .924
. 9 0 0 i i $ALP/ S0$ & CON
-939 .983
(*>) Simple LCS & CON . 6 6 1 ,054
i i LCS & RES . 701 .137 P a r t i a l LCS & CON/ dCBD - . 1 6 6 - i t LCS & RES/ dCBD -.025 .077 i t RES & dCBD/ LCS - 0 464 -
( c ) P a r t i a l RES & dCBD/ CON - . 3 9 8 -.186
i t RES
& CON/ dCBD .539 .895
i i RES
& CON/ LCS [ . 6 5 6 .895
i i RES & LCS/ CON
.373 . 1 9 8
(d) Simple RES & GEOd *709
i i CON
& GEOd o 8 6 6
Part i a l RES & dCBD/ GEOd -.328
i i RES & GEOd/ dCBD . 3 1 8 i i CON & dCBD/ GEOd - . 3 8 6
t i CON & GEOd/ dCBD . 6 9 0
INDEX: S0$ socio-economic s t a t u s LCS l i f e - c y c l e stage
dCBD = distance from the CBD CON = regional contagion RES = ALP r e s i d u a l
GEOd = regional geographic d is tance
(b) Melbourne only
The c o r r e l a t i o n between l i f e - c y c l e stage and the ALP r e s i d u a l can be e n t i r e l y explained by distance from the CBD ( t a b l e 1 2b ) , but before assuming t h a t the s o c i o l o g i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n i s zero, i t must be remembered t h a t distance from the CBD i s a d i f f e r e n t c l a s s of v a r i a b l e , and t h a t i t may possibly ’ex p l ai n ' l i f e - c y c l e stage cons is te n l y .
The c o r r e l a t i o n between distance from the CBD and l i f e - c y c l e stage appears to be a s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e r e l a t i o n s h i p of very basic meaningfulness, i . e , l i f e - c y c l e stage i s
c o n c e n t r i c a l l y oriented i f only because i n a c i t y undergoing rapid growth t he r e i s no other way t h a t the housing and
amenities demands a t various stages i n the l i f e cycle can be accommodated. The concentric p a t t e r n i s the most nat ura l random ( i n the sense of C u r r y , 1964) s p a t i a l or gani s at i o n to develop - there can be no spacious suburbs with a c c e s s i b l e , multibedroomed houses and space f o r chi l dr en to play i n
the i nner suburbs because of e i t h e r the competition f or land and buil dings there or because of the decay i n some p a r t s . Thus the concentric s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e of l i f e - c y c l e stage i s forced upon i t as a geographical functi on of
other economic and h i s t o r i c a l f uncti ons .
Thus while distance from the CBD i s l i k e l y always to account f o r the variance of l i f e - c y c l e stage (or population density) i n c o r r e l a t i o n , the same i s not true f o r regional geographic dis t a nce and reg i o na l contagion. Within the p a r t y voting r egions, there does not seem to be the same very basic processes which give r i s e the concentric
geographic functions f o r the e n t i r e c i t y , and so the
r egional geographic distance measure i s not a measure with the same s t r e n g t h of basic and i n e v i t a b l e s p a t i a l
o r g an i s at i o n within the t o t a l c i t y system.
The ’meaning’ of distance from the CBD i s even more un cert ain when used i n p a r t i a l l i n g than i s t h a t of r egional geographic d i s t a n c e , because i t i s the geographical basic f o r so many o t h e r d i s t r i b u t i o n s . ' * I t does c o r r e l a t e
r = .740 with regi on a l geographical distance however, and so to check whether one i s a s urrogate of the o t he r , each can be a l t e r n a t e l y p a r t i a l l e d from c o r r e l a t i o n s with e i t h e r the
r e s i d u a l or r eg i o n a l contagion ( t a b l e I2d). The r e s u l t s are equivocal as each reduces the simple c o r r e l a t i o n of the other» Whether or not distance from the CBD has any-
meaning fu.1 c o r r e l a t i o n within the a n a l y s i s remains un cer t ai n,
When the c o r r e l a t i o n between the ALP r e s i d u a l and both l i f e - c y c l e stage and regional contagion i s examined by
p a r t i a l l i n g the l a t t e r two alternately«, then the variance of the r e s i d u a l i s seen to be more explained by regional contagion than by l i f e - c y c l e stage« To be p r e c i s e , 35^ of the variance of the c o r r e l a t i o n between the r e s i d u a l and r egional contagion was explained by l i f e - c y c l e stage, w h i l s t 7 2$ of t h a t between the r e s i d u a l and l i f e - c y c l e
3
stage was explained by regional contagion.
There i s a simple c o r r e l a t i o n of r = «701 between the r e s i d u a l and l i f e - c y c l e stage, and a simple c o r r e l a t i o n of r =. 8 1 4 between the r e s i d u a l and regional contagion; when both are used multiple c o r r e l a t i o n to p r e d i c t the r e s i d u a l , then the c o e f f i c i e n t inc re ase s from , 8l 4 to only .842.
Thus reg i o na l contagion i s the b e t t e r s i ng l e p r e d i c t o r , the a d d i t i o n of l i f e - c y c l e stage adding very l i t t l e .
From these f igures i t seems l i k e l y t h a t there i s a
small c o r r e l a t i o n between, l i f e - c y c l e stage and the r e s i d u a l , but t h a t t h i s overlaps i n t o the regional contagion measure, i . e . a t h i r d of the r e l a t i o n between regional contagion and the r e s i d u a l could be due to l i f e - c y c l e stage. Contained withi n the r egional contagion measure, l i f e - c y c l e stage c o n t ri b u t e s to i t s p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t i e s , but does not add much when added s e p a r a t e l y .
These f i g u r e s were obtained f o r Melbourne but not for Sydney, and t h i s r a i s e s the p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t the observed overlap between l i f e - c y c l e stage and r egional contagion i s a product of the deductive method. The outer e a s t e r n
d i v i s i o n s (C, F, P) are included with the i nn e r e a s t e r n d i v i s i o n s according to the axes p l o t , but the random e r r o r i n t h i s grouping cannot be assessed. There i s al so another
'The percentage variance reduction i s given bys
{ 1 - ( r , 2<3/ q 2 )>
x ioo
p o s s i b i l i t y that m i g r a t i o n f r o m the i n n e r e a s t e r n suburbs a c c o u n t s f o r t h e i r h i g h e r n o n - A L P vote r a t h e r t h a n some o t h e r s o c i o l o g i c a l f o r m of r e g i o n a l c o n t a g i o n « The d o u b t s about the m e t h o d e m p h a s i s e its h y p o t h e s i s g e n e r a t i n g n ature, and the h y p o t h e s e s g e n e r a t e d are d i s c u s s e d i n s e c t i o n 14 b elowc
A final c o n s i d e r a t i o n is that w h e n d i s t a n c e f r o m the C B D is s u b s t i t u t e d for l i f e - c y c l e stage i n the p a r t i a l l i n g of the r e s i d u a l and c o n t a g i o n (table 12c), t h e n w h i l s t the c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n the r e s i d u a l and d i s t a n c e f r o m the CB D is red u c e d by 74$ ( a p p r o x i m a t e l y the same as for l i f e - c y c l e stage), the c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n the r e s i d u a l and r e g i o n a l c o n t a g i o n is r e du c e d by 54$. T h e p o s s i b l e c a u s a l
c o n t r i b u t i o n of d i s t a n c e f r o m the CBD to r e g i o n a l c o n t a g i o n could be i n the form of the d i f f e r e n t s o c i a l b a s e s to
m o b i l i t y i n t e r a c t i n g w i t h l i f e - c y c l e stage, i.e. the e a s t e r n sub u r b s m o v e m e n t , as m e n t i o n e d , is p r o b a b l y o v e r a g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e w h e n c o m p a r e d to a n y o u t w a r d o r i e n t e d l i f e - c y c l e stage m o v e m e n t c o n f i n e d to the w e s t e r n h a l f of the city. The w e s t e r n s u b u r b s c o n t a i n g r e a t e r c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of
i n d u s t r y , and a l o w e r e c o n o m i c s t a t u s p o p u l a t i o n w i t h a lower d e g r e e of s o c i a l and g e o g r a p h i c a l m o b i l i t y , m a n i f e s t e d not o n l y in d a y to d a y c o n t a c t but in h o u s e - m o v i n g too (Webber,
1964)o A second p o s s i b l e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of d i s t a n c e f r o m
the C B D is s i m i l a r to that of r e g i o n a l g e o g r a p h i c a l d i s t a n c e - a p e r c e p t i o n s u r r o g a t e i n v o l v i n g s e l f and loca t i o n , but
a g a i n c o n f i n e d l a r g e l y to the e a s t e r n h a l f of the city*