In order to better understand the changing association between parental characteristics and the chances for children to live in low-income families, we further examine differentials by parental and family characteristics over the two time periods, 1987- 1991 and 1997-2001 by using a logit model. The non-parametric approach in earlier sections can only control for some but not all of the characteristics examined by this study at the same time. Some observations reported above may reflect compositional effects of other important characteristics that cannot be controlled for simultaneously.
Table 5 shows a multivariate model that predicts the log-odds of children living in low-income families by time period, parental, family, and race/ethnicity characteristics that we discussed above and their interaction effects with the time period dummy. As shown by Table 5, the net effects of variables and their interaction terms with the dummy indicating the 1997-2001 time period are largely consistent with results presented by Tables 1-1 to 4-2 in their relative magnitudes and directions. As we expected, the main effects reported by Table 5 show that children with employed, better-educated, older parents, children in two-parent families, and white children are less likely to live in low-income families.
The more interesting findings of Table 5 are concerning the changes between 1987-1991 and 1997-2001. It is shown by Table 5 that there is a 30 percent (Note 28) net decrease in the odds of children to live in low-income families in 1997-2001. This is an effect due to the combined changes in business cycle and policies in the 1990s. As we proposed in the introduction, this study does not try to distinguish these two possible causes of changes but to focus on differential changes among children by subgroups
defined by parental and familial characteristics. By controlling for other parental characteristics, we find that, as indicated by the interaction terms of time periods and parental employment status, working families have benefited less in the recent decline in the odds of falling under the low-income lines. By including in the model the interaction terms between the time period dummy and various subgroups defined above, we find that, during the 1990s, disadvantaged subgroups also benefited less than the others, and the groups benefited the least are those in medium risk ranks (i.e., children in families with parents between ages 25-29, with parents who only had a high-school diploma, and in father-only families). Finally, Table 5 also shows that, net of other parental characteristics, Hispanic children benefited less in the 1997-2001 period (Note 29). This is not shown by Table 4-2 where we have only controlled for parental employment status and race/ethnicity and not the other parental characteristics that are controlled for in Table 5.
Given the parameters estimated using the model shown in Table 5 (Note 30), working families with multiple disadvantages suffered higher odds of low-income status in 1997-2001 than working families with the same set of disadvantages a decade earlier. As shown in Table 5, children living with a single parent who worked full time but only had a high school diploma (“high school/full time work/single parent”), or children living with a single parent who worked full time but was between ages 25 to 29 (“25-29/full time work/single parent”) experienced higher odds of low-income status during 1997-2001 than such children during 1987-1991(Note 31).
It is not only the increased odds of living in low-income families among children in the “high school/full time work/single parent” and the “25-29/full time work/single parent” types of families, but also the increases in the proportion of children in these types of families that helps explain some of the increases in low-income rates shown in Tables 1-1 to 4-2. For example, the combined proportion of children in the “high school/full time work/single parent” and the “25-29/full time work/single parent” types of families among all children living with parents who worked full time but only had a high school diploma increased from 18 percent during 1987-1991 to 27 percent for 1997-2001. Similarly, for children in families with parents who worked full time and were ages 25 to 29, the combined share of the children in the “high school/full time work/single parent” and the “25-29/full time work/single parent” types of families increased from 19 percent for 1987-1991 to 31 percent during 1997-2001.
However, the increased odds of low-income status among children in the “high school/full time work/single parent” and the “25-29/full time work/single parent” types of families are solely responsible for the increases in the low-income rates over time among children in single-parent working families. This is because the proportion of the “high school/full time work/single parent” and the “25-29/full time work/single parent”
Table 5: Logit Model Predicting the Log-Odds for Children in Low-Income Families.
Coefficient Standard Error Period (reference 1987-1991)
1997-2001 -0.35 0.10 **
Parental Characteristics
Parental Employment (reference No-work)
Full-time, Year-round -2.58 0.06 **
Part-time -1.10 0.06 **
Full-time, Year-round x 1997-2001 0.21 0.08 **
Part-time x 1997-2001 0.18 0.09 **
Parental Education (reference Some College or More)
Less than HS 1.87 0.04 **
HS Graduate 0.89 0.02 **
Less than HS x 1997-2001 0.06 0.06
HS Graduate x 1997-2001 0.10 0.03 **
Parental Age (reference > 39)
<25 0.74 0.06 ** 25-29 0.81 0.04 ** 30-34 0.64 0.03 ** 35-39 0.40 0.03 ** <25 x 1997-2001 -0.03 0.08 25-29 x 1997-2001 0.14 0.05 ** 30-34 x 1997-2001 0.03 0.04 35-39 x 1997-2001 0.01 0.04
Living Arrangement (reference Married Two-parent)
Mother Only 0.69 0.03 **
Father Only -0.11 0.06
Mother Only x 1997-2001 0.17 0.04 **
Father Only x 1997-2001 0.21 0.08 **
Race and Ethnicity (reference Black)
White -0.73 0.04 ** Hispanic 0.11 0.05 ** Other -0.25 0.06 ** White x 1997-2001 0.06 0.05 Hispanic x 1997-2001 0.13 0.06 ** Other x 1997-2001 0.10 0.08 Constant 1.18 0.07 ** Sample Size=259,990
types of families among these children did not increase. The combined proportion of children in the “high school/full time work/single parent” or the “25-29/full time work/single parent” types of families among children in families with a single father worked full time during 1987-1991 was 46 percent, and it remained the same during 1997-2001. Moreover, the combined proportion of children in the “high school/full time work/single parent” or the “25-29/full time work/single parent” types of families among children in families with a single mother who worked full time was 51 percent in the 1987-1991 period, and it decreased to 45 percent during 1997-2001.