Key trends are identified after analysing the outcome of interviews from industry experts and brainstorming sessions.These trends are almost certain to happen in future and have significant impact on the eSIM and M2M ecosystem. Initially a host of key trends were identified but after careful discussion and analysis the main key trends are selected for
the future scenario construction. These trends are discussed in detail below: M2M traffic increasing (indoor and outdoor)
In general cellular M2M devices generate low data volumes. But with the advancement in cellular network communication in the next ten years, IP based LTE will certainly make M2M deployment an easy and affordable option. The fast M2M adoption rate is thus showing clear sign of escalating M2M traffic. In various statistics of expected cellular traffic growth, M2M traffic occupies a significant part. This increase of this traffic is both in indoor (home, office etc.) and in outdoor (roads, park, remote desert etc.).
Moreover the growth in M2M traffic will vary by taking geographical scope into consideration. The international roaming traffic will be small compared to the large national M2M traffic, which is a forecast of industry experts obtained from interview and brainstorming sessions.
Number of M2M devices increasing
According to Machina Research, cellular connections will increase to 2.6 billion by 2022 and 22 percent of this will be due to M2M (2012). GSMA also reported 1.4 percent increase in M2M connections from 2010 to 2013. In 2014 the number of M2M connections are forecasted to be 250 million. Moreover increasing percentage of M2M connections in the total cellular connections indicates a progression in the M2M market maturity. Many driving forces are working behind this increase in M2M connections. Wide coverage by advance radio technology, low price of communication module due to continuous development in semiconductor arena are some of the worth mentioned driving forces. Also regulatory initiatives and government requirements in some region of the world accelerate M2M adoption in the past few years. Two examples can be mentioned regarding this. The first one is European Union issued mandate on smart metering and the second one is eCall project of European commission. Both of these will facilitate massive M2M deployments.
M2M related big data increasing
The huge number of connected M2M devices is potential source of ’big data’ that can be used to increase both quality of experience and revenue. Application of data analytics can be a useful tool for improving performance in many niche M2M namely smart grids, health-care, automotive and smart homes.
Many software vendors along with leading telecoms vendor like Ericsson, Nokia Solutions and Networks and Huawei are showing interest to offer big data and analytics solutions to enterprises and telecom operators for their M2M solutions. But there are challenges
like privacy issues, security and authenticity handling and efficiency problem in this comparatively new sector (Machina, 2013).
MNO-switchable eSIM for M2M devices (Later in all devices)
It has been already mentioned that many M2M devices are deployed in systems which are not easily accessible. Changing the SIM for subscription switch or provisioning is not a suitable option. Thus M2M is driving the demand for embedded SIM. Already M2M form factor MFF1 and MFF2 are dedicated for using as embedded SIM (eSIM) in M2M modules. But the adoption of eSIM is likely to start from M2M and gradually it will be used for all other mobile devices.
Apart from the ease of access issue, the main characteristics of eSIM is remote provisioning. And this remote provisioning facilitates the eSIM use for M2M devices. It is not so important for H2H devices to have remote provisioning. This is another indication that eSIM will first come to M2M devices not in consumer mobile devices. MNOs forming global M2M alliances
For offering unified services across multiple geographies, MNOs are motivated to be part of global M2M alliances (GSMA intelligence, 2014). Global M2M Association, M2M World Alliance, Bridge M2M Alliance, Vodafone and its partner markets these are few examples of such operator alliance. Most of these alliances have an offer of ’global SIM’ which is commonly usable in the partner MNO’s mobile networks. While such alliances are mostly offering global M2M support, some MNOs are maintaining different solutions for their local M2M business.
Moreover these alliances in many cases are forming around a single operating platform from specialized global platform providers like Ericsson and Jasper Wireless. Few large operators join in multiple platforms (Telenor using platforms from both Ericsson and Jasper). MNOs in the alliances are also making partnerships with multiple providers from the value chain to achieve quick capabilities to enter the market.
These alliances may have significant influences in standardising M2M solutions. Cloud computing driving centralisation
For escalating economies of scale in the low-ARPU M2M business, the M2M service providers are being attracted to cloud based platform solutions. Such Internet based architecture both reduces capital expenditures and operating expenses. A significant number of global platform solutions are now cloud based. The device connection platform solutions from Ericsson is a perfect example of cloud based platform solution. Alliances are formed around such cloud based platforms. In other words, these cloud based platforms
are appearing as the centre of M2M ecosystem. Diversification in offered services
M2M can be considered as an extension of multiple vertical markets exploiting the benefits of M2M communications. M2M covers a wide range of applications namely health-care, transportation, energy, security and surveillance, public services management, retail, point of sale, vending, building control/ management, industrial automation and control, home automation and control, and agriculture. Even the communication technologies used for these applications can be very diverse. This wide variation in the M2M applications and communication technologies makes interoperability very challenging option and it is hard to generalise M2M.
Regulator pushing competition for EU mobile roaming
Though there is no separate M2M roaming regulation but the existing EU roaming regulation keeps pushing competition for the mobile operators. According to EU roaming regulation III, which is affected from July 2014, European customers can buy roaming package from alternate roaming providers (ARP’s) regardless of their domestic service provider (DSP). And the customers can use the same SIM and mobile device. This regulation certainly increases the competition for mobile network operators while offering the customers a low roaming price.
Moreover European parliament adopted a package in April 2014, which mentioned about permanent removing of roaming cost in EU zone. But that law will still take some time to get into effect.