improvement for the international GGCM community
Starting in spring 2013, we are developing a new set of protocols for the first phase of the GGCMI, which will focus on model evaluation, skill, and improvement. Phase 1 will run for three years and include three overlapping stages of increasing duration:
1. Historical simulation and model evaluation
2. Analysis of model sensitivity to NCTW (nitrogen, carbon, temperature, and water)
3. Coordinated global climate assessment
Each stage will include planning, simulation, analysis, and publication components that will build on the previous stage while proceeding in parallel to the extent possible (Table B.1).
Planning stages will include the preparation and dissemination of the requisite harmonised weather/climate, environmental, and management datasets used as model inputs. The development of these products will be coordinated by the Ag-GRID
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Table 1: Three year time-line for GGCMI phase II
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Planning Simulation Analysis
Stage 1: Historical simulation and model
evaluation Publication Planning Simulation Analysis Stage 2: Analysis of NCTW sensitivity Publication Planning Simulation Analysis Stage 3: Coordinated Inter-Sectoral global assessment Publication IT and data services
Other key activities Scenarios and RAPs
Planning stages will include the preparation and dissemination of the requisite harmonized weather/climate, environmental, and management datasets used as model inputs. The development of these products will be coordinated by the Ag-GRID leadership team in partnership with the AgMIP and ISI-MIP climate teams, the AgMIP soils initiative, and the AgMIP economics team and RAP group. This design takes maximum advantage of available data, resources, and expertise available within AgMIP and ISI-MIP and frees up the active modeling teams as much as possible to focus on core model development and simulations.
Publication will include article submissions to top quality journals timed to coincide with public releases of input data and simulation outputs, published through an Earth Systems Grid (ESG) node and metadata catalog maintained at the University of Chicago and Argonne National Lab.
As of now we have engaged modeling groups from 14 institutions in 8 countries to participate in this next phase of the project (Table 2). Key to the success of this activities will be the team’s ability to leverage existing AgMIP strengths by bringing together AgMIP members from the climate, crop modeling, IT, Representative Concentration Pathways (RAPs), scaling, uncertainty, and economic teams to develop new initiatives for improving quality and access to gridded data, models, computing, and scenario development and coalesce the international community of large-scale gridded crop modelers around the most important topics at the interface of food and climate.
Table B.1. Three year time-line for GGCMI phase 1
leadership team in partnership with the AgMIP and ISI-MIP climate teams, the AgMIP soils initiative, and the AgMIP economics team and RAP group. This design takes maximum advantage of available data, resources, and expertise available within AgMIP and ISI-MIP and frees up the active modelling teams as much as possible to focus on core model development and simulations.
Publication will include article submissions to top quality journals timed to coincide with public releases of input data and simulation outputs, published through an Earth Systems Grid (ESG) node and metadata catalog maintained at the University of Chicago and Argonne National Lab.
As of now, we have engaged modelling groups from fourteen institutions in eight countries to participate in this next phase of the project (Table B.2). Key to the success of this activities will be the team’s ability to leverage existing AgMIP strengths by bringing together AgMIP members from the climate, crop modelling, information technology (IT), Representative Concentration Pathways (RAPs), scaling, uncertainty, and economic teams to develop new initiatives for improving quality and access to gridded data, models, computing, and scenario development and coalesce the international community of large-scale gridded crop modellers around the most important topics at the interface of food and climate.
In order to ensure success of the core activities of the Ag-GRID GGCMI team, we will pursue several additional activities that integrate with other AgMIP groups and strengths to maximally leverage our participation in the project.
Stage 1: Historical simulation and model evaluation. In the first stage, models will be run using various observation and reanalysis-based historical weather products so that the models can be evaluated over the historical period globally and in various key
Appendix B. GGCMI guidance document 160
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Table 2: Models and groups engaged thus far for the AgMIP GGCMI team
Model Institution Contact Notes
pDSSAT U Chicago, USA [email protected] Based on DSSAT4.5; mai, whe, soy, ric
LPJmL PIK, Germany [email protected] Ecosystem-type model; ~16 crops PEGASUS Tyndall, UEA, UK [email protected] Ecosystem-type model; mai, whe,
soy
EPIC-Boku Boku, Austria [email protected] Based on EPIC; ~16 crops modeled
GEPIC EAWAG,
Switzerland
[email protected] Based on EPIC; mai, whe, soy, ric LPJ-GUESS Lund, Germany [email protected] Ecosystem-type model
CropSyst- WU
Washington U, USA
[email protected] Based on field-scale CropSyst GLAM Walker Inst., UK [email protected]
ORCHIDEE-
mil IPSL, France [email protected] DGVM type with STICS crop model
CGMS Wageningen, NL [email protected] Based on WOFOST
EPIC-IIASA IIASA, Austria [email protected] Based on EPIC
DAYCENT Colorado State,
USA [email protected] [Confirmation pending]
MCWLA IGSNRR, China [email protected] [Confirmation pending]
EPIC-JGCRI JGCRI, USA [email protected] Based on EPIC
In order to ensure success of the core activities of the Ag-GRID GGCMI team, we will pursue several additional activities that integrate with other AgMIP groups and strengths to maximally leverage our participation in the project.
Stage 1: Historical simulation and model evaluation. In the first stage, models will
be run using various observation and reanalysis-based historical weather products so that the models can be evaluated over the historical period globally and in various key interest regions and so that inter-model differences can be compared against the variation induced by the choice of historical data product.
Stage 2: Analysis of NCTW sensitivity. In the second stage, model sensitivity to
individual climatic drivers will be analyzed followed by an analysis of the influence of implicit and explicit assumptions on modeling results.
Stage 3: Coordinated Inter-Sectoral global assessment. Throughout the project we
will coordinate activities and data with the ongoing ISI-MIP project. This collaboration will culminate in a new global inter-sectoral assessment of climate vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptations for which we will begin simulations near the end of year 2.
3. Other key activities and coordination with other AgMIP teams
Table B.2. Models and groups engaged thus far for the AgMIP GGCMI teaminterest regions and so that inter-model differences can be compared to the variation induced by the choice of historical data product.
Stage 2: Analysis of NCTW sensitivity. In the second stage, model sensitivity to individual climatic drivers will be analysed followed by an analysis of the influence of implicit and explicit assumptions on modelling results.
Stage 3: Coordinated Inter-Sectoral global assessment. Throughout the project we will coordinate activities and data with the ongoing ISI-MIP project. This collaboration will culminate in a new global inter-sectoral assessment of climate vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptations for which we will begin simulations near the end of year 2.