Hydropower generation is a non-consumptive form of water utilization. Power generation through dams on the Indus River supplies around one third of electricity produced in Pakistan.540 Hydropower generation is seen as a strategic asset in the
country’s development, providing energy free of cost; its abundant availability is significant to justify a whole range of studies into its future exploitation. However, much of the total hydropower potential has not been tapped yet.541 Among the
reasons are disputes between the provinces – an issue which relates to the wider dispute over water sharing and river development. The rise in electricity consumption has been met largely through increasing the thermal power production.542 The social, economic and political relevance of hydropower rises against the spectre of steadily growing demands for electricity from a fast increasing population and hard-pressed
537 Intizar Hussain et al.: Productivity and performance, op. cit., p. 13, noting different productivity
depending on crop sequences (higher wheat harvest, if wheat follows rice, rather than cotton).
538 Maliha Hussain, J.L. Karmacharya, S. Mukherjee: Investment requirements for increasing water
availability in South Asia; project on Water Security in South Asia (WASSA); Washington / Honolulu: Carnegie Corp. / Johns Hopkins University / Global Environment and Energy in the 21st Century, 2002, p. 84- 86; www.geo-21.org/publications/Investment.pdf (May 2006).
539 Fateh Ullah Khan: Water problem, causes and solutions: a view from the North West Frontier
Province; in: Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema et al. eds.: Problems and politics of water sharing and management in Pakistan; Islamabad: IPRI, 2007, p. 129. Much the same is true for land levelling by laser technology, a technique that could make irrigation more effective.
540 Ministry of Finance: Economic Survey 2009/2010; Islamabad: GoP, 2010, p. 195. The installed
power generation has remained roughly stable at 19,650 MW for the past six years (table 13.2; 2009 data).
541 ICIMOD estimates 20,770 MW, cf. ICIMOD: Implications of the potential impacts of climate change
on mountain environments in the HKH; www.icimod.org.sg/focus/water/water_climate.htm (online report, undated; access: May 2001). The actual figure is in dispute. The government of Pakistan puts it at 41,722 MW, not indicating whether all is in fact usable, cf. Ministry of Water and Power: Hydelreport; Islamabad: Government of Pakistan (undated; circa 2003), p. 99; www.ppib.gov.pk/report/HydelReport.pdf (March 2011).
542 The development of hydropower involves international funding. As a result it is under regular
scrutiny by international development organizations as the ADB and the GTZ; cf.: GTZ: Wasserkraft- Projekte in Pakistan. Verlaufsprotokoll eines Round-table-Gesprächs zwischen Unternehmen und pakistanischen Regierungsvertretern, 18 August 2000 (Hydropower projects in Pakistan; protocol of a roundtable discussion with entrepreneurs and the Pakistan Government; in German); Eschborn: GTZ, Arbeitspapier no. 3; www.gtz.de/ppi/docs/pakistan.pdf (Oct. 2003).
public finance.543 The availability of electricity is a driver of many economic activities (agricultural and industrial), public health, communication and education, and effective public administration. In other words, cheap electricity – like water – is equivalent to social and economic progress.544
The province-wise hydropower generation highlights another facet of the uneven distribution of the river basin’s wealth. About 57 per cent of the total installed capacity (3,767 MW out of 6,595 MW) is located in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa (KPP/NWFP), 26 per cent in Punjab and the remainder in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the Northern Areas.545 The untapped potential is estimated to be 32,585 MW; this means that only 16 per cent of the whole estimated hydropower potential of Pakistan has so far been used. Again the greatest untapped potential is in KPP (NWFP): 14,212 MW (44 per cent), followed by 12,295 MW (38 per cent) in the Northern Areas, and 4,102 MW (13 per cent) in Punjab.546 These upstream locations benefit from the gradient of the higher elevation and the relative proximity of the rivers’ sources, together making power generation much more profitable than in the downstream reaches. This form of water use, though non-consumptive, plays an important role in water sharing, too, turning hydropower into a competitor against irrigation – in both the downstream provinces and in the very same upstream provinces, too.
The resource as such may be inexpensive, but there are indirect costs attached to using it. The actual price of this energy source comes in the form of high installation and operation costs plus social and environmental side-effects.547 These aspects are not unique to the Indus case. But it is the Indus River that exposes them in a dramatic way, due to the river’s hydrological features. This is particularly true for hydropower facilities that are linked to reservoirs, like Mangla and Tarbela. While the operation of hydropower installations as such does not impede other economic uses, the storing of water in the wet season (Rabi) reduces the amount of water available downstream, requiring Sindh farmers to adjust their cropping patterns. In the dry season (Kharif), when the river flow is low and water is released from the reservoirs, disputes emerge over how much water to be released at which station and at which point of time.
543 The country’s fossil fuels like oil and gas, by some estimates, are expected to be exhausted by
2017, according to findings of a conference hosted by the Alternative Energy Commission of Pakistan: Oil and gas reserves to exhaust in 15 years; Dawn, 20 Jan. 2002. Whether this estimate is accurate or not, the rise in electricity consumption by 70 per cent over a ten-year period (1996 to 2005) illustrates the challenge ahead; cf. Ministry of Finance: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2006/2007; Islamabad: Government of Pakistan, 2007, p. 237.
544 So-called power outages have become an increasingly regular phenomon in Pakistan. While
newspapers frequently report on the power supply (or rather, non-supply), official and academic interest has so far been marginal. Pasha notes that many companies affected by production losses due to the non-supply of electricity have turned to their own source of energy: power generators; cf. Aisha GhausPasha: The economic cost of “power outages”; research paper; Institute of Public Policy (no date); www.ippbnu.org/researchpapers-php (Sept. 2014), p. 3. Though the author quantifies the electricity shortage, the reprt is short on references.
545 Ministry of Water and Power: Hydelreport; Islamabad: Government of Pakistan (circa 2003), p. 17;
www.ppib.gov.pk/report/HydelReport.pdf (May 2003/March 2011).
546 Calculation based Hydelreport, ibidem, p. 99; figures are rounded.
547 Among the ecological effects is the impact on river fish species, especially migratory species
whose reproduction patterns are disrupted. Among the social costs is the lack of economic compensation for displaced communities: Tarbela Dam: affected people not compensated; Dawn, 26 May 2001. For an assessment of the over-all consequences see World Commission on Dams: Tarbela Dam, Indus River Basin, Pakistan; WCD case studies; Cape Town: WCD, 1999; www.dams.org/docs/studies/pk/pk_finaldraft_intro.pdf (April 2001).
This is where the specific provincial demands, based on individual agricultural timetables, tend to collide. In economic terms, the alternating use of the river either to irrigate lands or to produce electricity translates into losses, direct and indirect – in the form of consumer and investor confidence in regular supplies. The environmental costs relate to the altered flow regime of the river as a result of damming. Some fish species have been driven to the brink of extinction because their migration and reproduction patterns have been disrupted. Social costs come in the form of the resettlement of villages. Uprooted communities which have seen their homes and lands inundated have in many cases not received adequate compensation.548
Not surprisingly, the debate over additional storage and power generating capacities, going on for many years, is highly controversial.549 The principal need for more hydropower facilities is widely agreed, particularly as alternative energy sources compatible with the country’s limited financial resources are not available. The design of new installations and their location, however, are the major points of dispute. Run- of-the-river designs, i.e. power generation without attached reservoirs, would reduce the flow variations, with positive environmental effects, yet without a facility to save water. Dams with attached reservoirs, in turn, promise power generation cum vital water supplies for dry season crops. Reservoirs are also a factor in flood control. Due to the geological characteristics of the Indus River, however, the reservoir capacity and the power generating potential of the large dams-cum-reservoirs at Mangla and Tarbela are in decline as much of the silt load of the river accumulates in the reservoirs.
In addition, water shortage often means that reservoirs either can’t be filled adequately or have to be tapped ahead of schedule which means that the minimum water level required for power generators is not reached, leaving operators no option but to shut down the power system. Consequence: no electricity generation. It is estimated that Mangla and Tarbela lose around 1.5 and 2.5 per cent of their respective reservoir capacity each year.550 A remedy for the removal of the constantly rising silt level is not at hand.551 In response to this development, the height of Mangla Dam has been raised to increase the reservoir capacity.552 But the benefits of
548 WCD, ibidem. This problem, though fairly common in the case of large dams all over the world, has
added to popular resistance against large dams in Pakistan and furthered mistrust in the government.
549 The debate will be analyzed in detail in the water sharing section, as part of the inter-provincial
dispute over water.
550 Syed Nasir Hussain: Conserving water reservoir capacity – a solution; paper presented at the 2nd
South Asia Water Forum, Islamabad, 14 – 16 Dec. 2002; Islamabad: Pakistan Water Partnership, 2002, p. 197.
551 The adverse consequences also include accelerated turbine wear and degenerating dam stability,
as Hussain notes. The dredging that he proposes for smaller dams could, as he suggests, be carried out by farmers using the collected silt to increase soil fertility; for bigger dams flushing the silt is recommended. This method has not been tested yet, but is expected to be financially favourable, as it would preserve the dam’s capacity: Hussain: Conserving water reservoir, op. cit., p. 200. The problem as such, however, cannot be eliminated: After flushing, silt will continue accumulating.
552 WAPDA Annual Report 2009/2010, op. cit., p. 19. This project has been accompanied by public
protest over fear of lacking compensation for displaced villagers: Hundreds hold rally against extension of Mangla Dam; Dawn, 17 Feb. 2001; Committee formed to develop consensus: Mangla dam extension; Dawn, 10 Sept. 2002.
this costly measure are not certain, as critics note, because the available water supplies from the river are below those expected by the projects’ proponents.553