MUSLIM AND CHRISTIAN POPULATIONS IN KENYA
2.4 Non-Religious Sources on Population Statistics
There have been four recent surveys carried out by governmental and non-governmental organisations that have recorded religious demographics in Kenya.33 The figures concerning the Muslim population for each survey are not the same, and this can be explained by the difficulties that were experienced with their process in North Eastern Province. The specific difficulties will be examined shortly; however, it seems pertinent to clarify why this province poses such problems.
The population of North Eastern Province, where ethnic Somalis predominate, is almost completely Muslim. According to the most recent census (which will be discussed later in this section), more than half of the Muslim population of Kenya consist of Somali people.34 Therefore, errors in the data from this province are significant when considering the percentage of the Muslim population of Kenya as a whole. The province is hot, arid,
geographically large, sparsely populated and underdeveloped with few roads. Many of the Kenyan Somalis who live in the province continue to herd camels in a nomadic lifestyle. The borders between Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia are porous; ethnic Somalis of the same clans, sub-clans and families live on all sides of the borders, so that people regularly travel and live irrespective of national boundaries. More recently, the collapse of the Somali state and the ensuing violence has brought a large influx of ethnic Somalis from Somalia into North Eastern Province, making it difficult to know who are truly Kenyan citizens. All of these factors have made accurate data collection difficult in this province.
33 While other population sources may be available, I have chosen to use only those that have openly disclosed their data collection methods.
34 Oparanya, 2009 Population and Housing Census Results. 34-35 According to the census there are 2.4 million Kenyan Somalis and 4.3 million Muslims living in Kenya.
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Two relatively small surveys were conducted in Kenya between 2008 and 2009: one by Afrobarometer35 and one by Pew Forum.36 These will be examined first.
Afrobarometer37 is a research project that investigates political, social and economic attitudes in various African countries by conducting surveys every few years.38 From October through November 2008 interviews of a “nationally representative, random, stratified
probability sample of 1104 Kenyans” 39 were conducted. Due to the relatively small population of North Eastern Province an oversample was used to provide a sample large enough to permit statistical comparisons with other regions. When national results were recorded, the results of North Eastern Province were “weighted to reflect their actual share of the national population.”40 This means that a larger number of inhabitants of North Eastern Province were interviewed compared to their actual statistical representation; however, an appropriate adjustment was made in calculating national averages. According to this survey Christians formed 85.9% of the population and Muslims 9.2%.
35 University of Nairobi Institute of Development Studies, and Michigan State University, Summary of Results: Round 4 Afrobarometer Survey in Kenya, 2008 (www.Afrobarometer.org, 2008).
36 Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa.
37 http://www.afrobarometer.org/
38See http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/ICPSR/series/162. “The Afrobarometer series was developed by select Africanist scholars with funds from a variety of sources: the National Science Foundation, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the Danish Governance Trust Fund at the World Bank, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, Michigan State University, and the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The series represents a large-scale, cross-national survey research project designed to
systematically map mass attitudes to democracy, markets, and civil society in more than a dozen sub-Saharan African nations, and ultimately, to track the evolution of such attitudes in selected nations over time. More specifically, the series furnishes research data on democracy, governance, livelihoods, macroeconomics and markets, social capital, political regimes and transition, conflict and crime, political participation, and national identity in sub-Saharan Africa. Afrobarometer surveys are conducted periodically in such sub-Saharan African nations as Botswana, Cape Verde, Lesotho, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The series is partly modeled on Eurobarometer studies of the last 24 years, the new Eurobarometer studies of the last ten years, the Latinobarometer, and the East Asianbarometer. It thus enables comparison across continents.”
39 Institute of Development Studies, Summary of Results: Round 4 Afrobarometer Survey in Kenya, 2008, 2.
40 Ibid.
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Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life41 conducted a major survey from December 2008 through April 2009 throughout Sub-Saharan Africa to gauge religious attitudes of Christians and Muslims in this part of the world. Approximately 1500 Kenyans were interviewed in December 2008 for the project.42 A representative sample from all seven provinces of Kenya was sought “with a Muslim oversample.”43 For reporting national results the data was weighted to more accurately reflect true percentages. The survey found that Christians formed 88% of the population and Muslims 11%.44 An additional finding was that conversion from one of these major religions to the other is statistically negligible.45
The important Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) was undertaken in 2003. The purpose of the survey was to provide health related information for the
implementation of policy.46 More than 11,000 men and women47 in 10,000 households48 were interviewed throughout Kenya. This survey found that 7% of the population was Muslim and nearly 90% were Christian.49 However, the report acknowledges the “difficulties in travelling and interviewing in the sparsely populated and largely nomadic areas in the North Eastern Province,”50 which led to fewer interviews being conducted in the province than would be appropriate for proportionate representation. The reported results for the national level are not
41 http://www.pewresearch.org/about/ “Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research.
Pew Research does not take policy positions.”
42 Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa, 17.
43 Ibid., 68.
44 Ibid., 20.
45 Ibid., 2.
46 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2003, xvii.
47 Ibid., 11.
48 Ibid., 7.
49 Ibid., 27-28. All the statistics in the report are separated for men and women, so religious adherence is also presented in this way.
50 Ibid., 7.
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weighted to reflect this;51 therefore, the figure of 7% for the Muslim population is undoubtedly low. The gathering of religious data was not the primary goal of KDHS.
Kenya conducted a major census in 2009, which attempted to count the “complete population” by “where they spent the night” on August 24th to 25th 2009.52 More than 100,000 field personnel were trained to canvas and take census data,53 which included questions concerning religious adherence.54 The North Eastern Province again provided some
difficulties, as anomalies were discovered on examining the data from the province.55 Among the reported issues was a higher men-to-women ratio than is normally found in a population and an extremely large population increase without a corresponding increase in the number of households.56 The suspected cause of the anomalies is the increasing movement of ethnic Somalis from Somalia into Kenya.57 With the anomalies the 2009 census found the Muslim population to be over 4.3 million, or 11.1%,58 and Christians at 82.5%.59
2.5 Conclusion
While none of the surveys have been able to establish a definitive figure for the
Muslim population in Kenya, one can say with a fair amount of confidence that Muslims form no more than 11%, and no less than 7%,60 of the population, being closer to 11%. The
51 Ibid. For the survey’s own purpose of collecting data related to health and women’s health-related issues, the undersampling of North Eastern Province doesn’t represent a significant shortcoming, as sufficient interviews in the province were conducted to gather the appropriate data.
52 Oparanya, 2009 Population and Housing Census Results, 8.
53 Ibid., 12.
54 Ibid., 14.
55 Ibid., 20.
56 Wilfred Mulliro, "Kenya Somalis Population Explosion Cancelled in Census Results," Al-Shahid, August 31 2010. The newspaper is a Somali run internet newspaper.
57 Ibid.
58 The CIA World Factbook cites the same percentage of 11.1% for the Muslim population of Kenya.
Though sources are not named, it would appear that the World Factbook has used the Kenyan Census of 2009 as its principle source. See
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ke.html
59 Oparanya, 2009 Population and Housing Census Results, 33.
60 One should keep in mind that 7% is too low.
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Christian population seems to be around 80 to 85% of the total. We are not in a position to comment on the faithfulness or the commitment level of the adherents of either religion. The report by Pew Forum indicates that religious believers of both groups continue to participate to some extent in African Religion,61 whose population figures are listed at 635,352 (or 1.6%
of the total population) according to the most recent census.62
While it is more difficult to quantify, it is important to also note that Muslims and Christians in Kenya tend to be predominant in different ethnic groups; therefore, religious difference also implies ethnic difference. There are certain ethnicities that are exceptions to this rule, such as the Mijikenda groups near the coast.63 There also tend to be small Muslim populations within most of the major ethnicities, and one can occasionally find Muslims and Christians in the same family.64 However, when a Kenyan Christian imagines a Kenyan Muslim, she/he is likely to imagine someone of an ethnicity different from her/his own.
Therefore, interreligious relations in Kenya often imply interethnic relations, including the dynamics implied in those.
61 Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1.
62 Oparanya, 2009 Population and Housing Census Results, 33.
63 Barrett, "World Christian Database."
64 This is, however, more rare in Kenya than what the common expectation seems to be for Africa.
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