Rewriting the first-order conditions found in equations (2.31)–(2.33), we can write the reduced-form optimal stock densities, mo-bility, and land allocated to crops as:
Σ
li*≡ L*= f (λCoop, AgEcol, Comm,We note that the explicit representation of the externalities drops out of the reduced form equations, as they are a function of the same variables as expected utility; we defer a discussion of the implications for the econometrics until the next subsection.
Higher λCoop reduces costs of cooperation, and is thus expected to lead to lower stock densities, more mobility, and more land in pastures. Agri-ecological characteristics, AgEcol, include average rainfall or current relative rainfall, long-term rainfall variabil-ity, and land quality. For instance, greater rainfall is expected to increase stock densi-ties and reduce land allocated to pastures (as crops are considered to have a greater marginal response to higher rainfall than do livestock). Greater relative rainfall this period is expected to decrease mobility.
Higher land quality is expected to increase stock densities and decrease mobility; the impact on land allocated to crops vs. pasture is ambiguous. Community characteristics, Comm, include such things as community infrastructure (schools, health clinics, trans-portation), population density, ethnic tradi-tions, experience with livestock vs. crop production, and the land endowment of the community. More infrastructure and higher population densities are hypothesized to lead to greater inventiveness and produc-tivity, and perhaps reduced transaction costs
of purchasing inputs and selling products;
both are expected to lead to greater stock densities, but the impacts on mobility and crops are ambiguous. Greater relative expe-rience with livestock than with crops, often captured in whether or not the major ethnic group in the community is considered tradi-tionally pastoralist, is expected to lead to higher stock densities, more mobility (by lowering the costs of mobility), and more land allocated to pastures. A greater land en-dowment is expected to reduce mobility, but to have an ambiguous impact on stock den-sities and land allocated to pastures. Finally market variables, Mkt, include relative live-stock:grain prices and the distance to market.
Higher relative livestock prices and lower distances to market are hypothesized to increase stock densities, mobility (via the impact on higher stock densities), and land allocated to pasture.
Measuring Cooperative Capacity Theoretically, it is simple enough to define cooperation as the actions taken to inter-nalize externalities. As previously noted, however, we do not observe explicit rules on stocking rates or land allocation adopted by the community. We also have limited information on the resource-specific trans-action costs of cooperation. Instead, in the empirical case studies presented later in this report, we attempt to recover indicators of cooperative capacity. We posit that the ca-pacity of a community to cooperate on man-aging externalities can be recovered by ob-servable indicators of cooperation in other activities. In recent years, many such indi-cators have been described as comprising
“social capital,”14although some observers have noted that a community also requires the capacity to draw on this social capital
(see Krishna 2001). There is less agreement on how to construct measures of social cap-ital, although one of two avenues is usually followed. Factors hypothesized to affect cooperative capacity, such as ethnic or eco-nomic heterogeneity, can be entered directly as regressors (McCarthy et al. 1998; Bard-han 2000; Dayton-Johnson 2000). Alter-natively, direct measures of social capital or cooperative capacity can be used, such as the extent of disputes or political feuding (Seabright 1997) or the density of networks (Pender and Scherr 1999; Berhanu et al.
2003).
A less common approach to measuring social capital is to construct indices of social capital or “agency” (Krishna 2001; Isham and Kahkonen 2002; McCarthy et al., in press). We follow this approach, construct-ing indicators of cooperative capacity based on such characteristics as the number of meetings held, active participation by mem-bers in various collective activities, density of networks, rules, activities, and violations of rules. This empirical strategy is followed because a direct measure of cooperative capacity enables us to separate the direct and indirect impacts of such variables. Often, factors thought to affect collective action also have a separate direct impact on land use and allocation outcomes at the commu-nity level. For instance, more favorable land quality and higher output prices are hypoth-esized to increase cooperative capacity, which should reduce stock densities, all else being equal. But the direct impact should be to lead to higher stock densities, because stock levels increase with higher pasture productivity and higher output prices under both the social optimum and the noncooper-ative game. There are a wide variety of measures that might be used to measure
14The World Bank has produced a number of documents useful for operationalizing the concept of social capital, including a working-paper series from the Local Level Institutions Study, which are available from Social De-velopment Family, Environmentally and Socially Sustainable DeDe-velopment Network and the Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Division; and the papers prepared for the Social Capital Initiative (www.worldbank.org/poverty/scapital/scindex.htm). Also, see Dasgupta and Seregeldin (2000).
cooperative capacity, although the effect of many measures is still debated in the wider literature. For instance, meeting attendance can be high if members are dedicated or if there are many conflicts; many groups might imply that members are focusing on taking advantage of different opportunities or that the community is socially splintered, and the like. Thus, we hypothesize that communi-ties’ scoring consistently on a wide range of indicators across many different groups/
institutions is a better proxy for underlying cooperative capacity than relying on one indicator alone. And, to test whether these indicators actually measure cooperative ca-pacity, we regress them on exogenous fac-tors thought to affect cooperative capacity.15 Econometric Model
Using the categories of variables for sim-plicity, and using the subscript k to denote the community, the econometric equations of land use and allocation to be estimated in the following country studies are:
Lk= αL+ β1λkCoop+ β2AgEcolk + β3Commk+ β4Mktk+ e1 Dk*= αD+ γ1λk
Coop+ γ2AgEcolk + γ3Commk+ γ4Mktk+ e2
APk*= αHP+ δ1λkCoop+ δ2AgEcolk + δ3Commk+ δ4Mktk+ e3
where the αs are the intercept terms, β, γ, and δ are the coefficients to be estimated, and the es are error terms. As noted earlier,
Ext= f (λCoop, AgEcol, Comm, Mkt) so that it is not possible for us to separate out the direct production impacts from the externality impacts. Although it is quite re-strictive to assume that there are no cross effects between cooperative capacity and variables affecting externalities and cooper-ative capacity, empirically, this specification is chosen for parsimony.16
15Such an index could only be constructed for Ethiopia and Burkina Faso; in Niger, we directly include exogenous factors hypothesized to affect collective action.
16Consider the following structural input-demand equation:
L= a Xbe(1–cλCoop)l Xm Taking logarithms gives:
L= ln a + b ln X + 1 – cλCoop+ ln l + mX or
L= ln a + ln l + 1 + (b + m) ln X – cλCoop Substituting A for the first three constant terms gives:
L= A + (b + m) ln X – cλCoop
This is essentially the form of the equations we estimate in the following chapters, with all the assumptions this form entails on cross effects.
Ethiopia
I
n this chapter, we examine resource use and management, using community-level data col-lected in southern Ethiopia.17 These semiarid southern rangelands support the livestock that are highly valuable to Ethiopia for direct consumption and income for the Borana people, for the provision of draft power, and for export to generate foreign exchange. Despite the consensus on the region’s high ecological potential for livestock production, the area is seen as one that has chronically been in and is still in crisis today, mostly due to pressure on the common rangelands, high population growth rates, and increased privatization for both cultivation and grazing (Coppock 1994; Kerven and Cox 1996; Hogg 1997).The Borana Rangelands are located on the southernmost part of the Ethiopian lowlands, occupying a total land area of about 95,000 km2. They are located in the area 4–6° N and 36–42° E, sloping gently from 1,600 meters altitude in the northeast to about 1,000 meters in the extreme south, bordering on northern Kenya. The area is still predominantly in pasture and is mainly comprised of flat plains. There are occasional mountains, massive valleys, and de-pressions. Occupied almost entirely by pastoral populations, natural resources are largely communal, although individual crop cultivation and private enclosures appear to be increas-ing in recent decades. The area exhibits a bimodal pattern of precipitation, with the long rains falling between March and May, and the short rains between September and November. Spa-tial and temporal variability in both the quantity and distribution of rainfall renders the area semiarid, with an average annual rainfall varying from 353 to 873 mm/year, and coefficient of variation of rainfall (CoV) ranging from .2 to .6.
A field survey was conducted in 40 rural communities in the six districts of the Borana rangelands from September 1997 through March 1998. A community in this study consists of two or more pastoral settlements having common access to pastures and water resources, to which they bear a common claim, called an arda. The communities were selected to represent different rainfall patterns (level and variation). Rainfall data from 11 weather stations18located across the area were used to classify the communities into four different rainfall categories:
high mean with high variation; high mean with low variation; low mean with high variation;
and low mean with low variation. A list of all communities within approximately 50 kilometers of each rainfall station was collected, with the aid of district agricultural officers and chairmen of peasant associations. Between two and five communities were randomly selected.
17This chapter is based on empirical results presented in McCarthy et al. (2003).
18For eight of the stations, rainfall data were complete for the period 1982–1996; for the remaining three stations, data were missing for some years between 1982 and 1996, and so values for mean rainfall and CoV were gener-ated based on eight to 11 observations for these three stations.
26
The first phase of the data collection em-ployed a combination of standard question-naires and rapid rural appraisal techniques.
Respondents included community elders, heads of encampments, or other key in-formants, responding in a group setting.
Social mapping was used to assess the pro-portion of land under different types of land uses—different types of common-property grazing areas, transhumance routes, culti-vated area, private enclosures, and the like.
This phase was followed by a wealth-ranking exercise and the implementation of a close-ended questionnaire capturing total livestock holdings, the proportion of members en-gaged in nonfarm income-generating ac-tivities, rules and regulations regarding the various resources, and basic information on demographics and infrastructure. The phys-ical boundaries of the arda were obtained by use of a global positioning system (GPS) instrument that determined the coordinates of community border points. These data were later digitized and analyzed to generate community maps and land areas. Finally, a range condition score was developed for each community by a range specialist from the International Livestock Research Insti-tute, Addis Ababa; information was col-lected on such measures as dry matter and crude protein content along transects within an arda, slope measurements, and the area covered by barren land.