This thesis contains ten chapters in order to characterize the effects of mobilizations on NPS continuation rates. Together, Chapters II–IV provide thorough empirical research background within the literature review, theoretical model discussion, and social and psychological factors, which will establish the framework for analysis.
Collectively, Chapters V–VII define the data specifics, variable description, and descriptive statistics, which includes the preliminary research analysis for this thesis.
Details within these chapters provide additional basis for model specification and multivariate regressions.
Chapters VIII–IX describe the statistical models and presents multivariate regression results. Statistical models will provide the explicit description for the various models utilized for regression analysis. The multivariate regression results chapter outlines the detailed results for each model used in the study. Lastly, Chapter X provides conclusions for this thesis and recommendations for future study.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
A. INTRODUCTION
The preponderance of research regarding retention and attrition has been among studies that focused on the active component. However, there have been relatively few studies focusing on the reserves. Over the past decade, the main focus of reserve studies has centered on reserve intentions, attrition, and retention, but few have examined the actual drivers of reserve continuation behavior. Mainly, the federally funded research and development centers such as RAND Corporation and the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) have produced the most substantial and comprehensive studies examining relevant and vital reserve topics.
The goal of this literature review is to examine more recent and relevant reserve attrition and retention studies, in order to further develop a theoretical basis for constructing a valid conceptual multivariate framework that assesses Marine Corps Reserve (MCR) continuation behavior.
1. Attrition
Attrition is defined as the separation of service prior to the completion of agreed upon contracted terms of military service. Within the military spectrum, first-term attrition has been studied significantly to further understand the specific and relevant time periods in which significant losses occur. Specifically, attrition is examined during initial training and occupational specialty schools, as well as throughout a person’s obligated contract.
Defining attrition within the MCR is more challenging than analyzing attrition of the active component. This is due to the wide variety of service contracts available for Marine reservists. Initial drilling obligations range from 3 years to 6 years, while reenlistment contracts only obligate Marines to serve anywhere within the Ready Reserve
instead of SMCR units or the SelRes13. Additionally, some reservists complete their initial training requirements at a later time, as previously outlined in Chapter I Section E Reserve Overview for ROEP and IIADT. Furthermore, an individual loss within the SMCR does not always constitute a loss for the MCR since the reservist may transfer from one reserve participation category to another. These nuances that exist within the reserve community must be closely considered when analyzing various studies of attrition (Price, 2010).
2. Retention
Retention is defined as the voluntary decision of a person who has completed their initial obligation of service and chooses to remain in the military for additional term of service. Marine Corps Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA) sets annual retention missions for the active component in Memorandum-01 (Memo-01) based on the percentage of Marines who reenlist at the end of their first and subsequent terms, more commonly referred to as alignment plans. These plans are formally known as the First Term Alignment Plan (FTAP)14 for the initial term, and the subsequent term alignment plan (STAP)15 for each additional term. Retention can be difficult to measure in the active component because not all Marines reenlist; rather, some extend for certain periods of time without formally signing a reenlistment contract.
For the MCR, manpower planners must examine retention through a different lens due to the nature of their unrestricted types of contracts. In general, Marines who reenlist in the reserves are only obligated to serve in the Ready Reserve (including both the
13 Beginning in the Fiscal Year 2011, M&RA has initiated a pilot program where up to 500 Marines will be given an incentive to contractually obligate themselves for an additional three-year period in the SMCR units after successfully completing their initial service obligation in the Selected Reserve or active component. Analysis of this program will not be complete prior to Fiscal Year 2014.
14 First Term Alignment Program (FTAP) is a retention program used by the Marine Corps which assists in the reenlistment of first term enlistees, by PMOS or via lateral move. It attempts to balance manpower staffing strengths by the vacancies of departing careerists and fill the spaces appropriately with those who are qualified to reenlist.
15 Subsequent Term Alignment Program (STAP) is intended to complement the FTAP by balancing the promotion pyramid in subsequent terms while reducing the overall FTAP requirement. It is designed to proactively target and reenlist career Marines by PMOS. Its purpose is ultimately to improve the retention of career force Marines while closely aligning promotion tempos across all PMOSs.
SelRes and IRR). Specific to NPS Marine Reservists, they can choose to stop drilling altogether at the completion of their 6-year drilling obligation, or can drill on a month-to-month basis after the completion of their 6-year drilling obligation while still contractually obligated to remain in the Ready Reserve. This unrestrictive and fluid non-contractual period further complicates the standard approaches to retention. A new tool designed to help manage this problem is a program similar to FTAP called the Obligor Alignment Program (OAP),16 which is tentatively scheduled for implementation during FY 2012.