Overarching conclusion

In the introductory chapters, I define two central research issues: (1) the impact of pre- tertiary educational pathways on higher-education non-completion and (2) the effects of higher-education non-completion on first labour market returns. The following sections combine the results of the separate chapters and derive overarching conclusions on the main issues.

9.3.1. Part 1: Causes of higher-education non-completion

In Chapters 5 and 6 I take a closer look at the effect of pre-tertiary educational pathways on higher-education non-completion in general and in STEM fields in particular. The main focus of these chapters is the impact of pre-tertiary experiences, such as pathways to higher education and vocational or labour market skills, on dropping out. Furthermore, I examine the impact of pre-tertiary vs. in-college experiences on non-completion.

I find in Chapter 4 that experiences prior to higher education have different effects on different types of non-completion. My results show that students who enter higher education via track mobility have a higher risk of non-completion. These are students who obtained their higher-education entry qualification in upper-secondary education after graduating from lower-secondary education. While it is likely that these students have lower academic ability than those who pursued the traditional path, in

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Chapter 5 I am not able to examine this, as there is no adequate variable measuring the aptitude of all students in the data. In Chapter 6 I use the NEPS SC5 data, which contain the score of the higher-education entrance certificate (Abitur) for all students. Furthermore, I restricted my sample to respondents who obtained a higher-education entrance certificate. Controlling for the score in Chapter 6 shows that the type of higher- education entrance qualification has no significant effect on the non-completion of post- secondary STEM education.

I acknowledge that using the score is not an optimal proxy for ability for two reasons. First, the grades in upper-secondary education in Germany are not comparable across different student populations. Although some federal states administer centralised examinations in upper-secondary education, this is not common practice. Therefore grades are probably only loosely correlated with actual ability. In addition, the grading conventions may be even less comparable across general and vocational upper-secondary education. Second, the score in upper-secondary education may be a very imprecise predictor of performance in higher education. Students choose their field of study in higher education, whereas in upper-secondary education a broad variety of subjects has to be covered. Optimal proxies for ability are measured competencies, especially subject- specific competencies. One of the main goals of the NEPS is to assess the development of competencies over the life course. In SC6, competence data were collected in Waves 3 and 5, but this information has two drawbacks in the context of this study. First, analysable competence data are not available for every target person in the data, and second, the time span between entering the higher-education system and collecting the competence data is quite long and varies for each respondent. In SC5 competence tests were conducted in Waves 1 and 5, but again, analysable data are only available for a subgroup. Using these data would result in a much smaller sample size. Therefore I decided not to use these measurements. Finally controlling for the score in upper- secondary education in Chapter 6 suggests that the assumption of selection on academic ability does not hold for the STEM field.

Furthermore, I find that general academic preparation has only modest effects on non-completion in STEM. The results related to pathways to higher education furthermore suggest that students who enter higher education via alternative pathways have a considerably lower risk of non-completion than traditional students. Alternative

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pathways are mainly taken by students who left the general secondary education system but still want to obtain a higher-education qualification – often after a period of employment or vocational training. In contrast to international research, ‘non-traditional’ students do not drop out of higher education more often in Germany. This may be due to the fact that students who choose alternative pathways in Germany are a select group in terms of aptitude, motivation and goal orientation. Testing this assumption of ‘positive selection’ would require integrating individuals who took the ‘alternative pathway’ but did not enter the higher-education system as a control group into the analyses. This has not been done yet. More detailed analyses of vocational and labour market experiences show, furthermore, that students with such experience are more likely to stay on their chosen course and graduate earlier than traditional students. This result indicates that students might profit from pre-tertiary vocational and occupational skills. The analysis of the impact of pre-tertiary experiences on the non-completion of post-secondary STEM education for female students, moreover, reveals that field-specific experiences are the main driving factors. Female students with experience from STEM-related training and courses are more likely to complete their STEM degree than those without such experiences. These results highlight the importance of field-specific pre-tertiary experiences for higher-education decisions in the German system.

In addition to pre-tertiary experiences, I also controlled for in-college experiences in Chapter 6, which include both academic integration and social integration. These experiences were found to have highly significant effects on non-completion of post- secondary STEM education. Students who reported high perceived academic performance were less likely to drop out of a STEM degree course. Furthermore, identification with the academic environment lowers the likelihood of non-completion in STEM. Thus, my results show that academic integration has a positive effect on higher- educational attainment in STEM fields. It seems that students who meet certain explicit standards of the academic system, and can identify with its norms and values, are more likely to stay in post-secondary STEM education. By contrast, social integration seems to have a negative effect on higher-educational attainment. While interactions with students have no impact on non-completion, interactions with faculty make non-completion in STEM significantly more likely. Although this is a rather unexpected result, it may be

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because those who have regular and close contact with faculty are students who need special support because of performance problems.

Concerning gender differences in post-secondary STEM education, the results indicate that pre-tertiary field-specific experiences are the most important factors for women’s educational success in STEM. Women show deficits in pre-tertiary STEM experiences, which seem to pull them out of post-secondary STEM education. In-college experiences appear to be less important. It seems that female STEM students do not have problems with the academic and social integration process during higher education. Thus, female STEM students are not assumed to perceive their academic performance more negatively than their male counterparts. Furthermore, they do not seem to experience identification difficulties with the STEM environment, nor are they more likely to be discouraged by their social environment.

In line with the first main guiding research question of this dissertation – “How do pre-tertiary educational and occupational experiences affect higher-education non- completion in Germany?” – the results of this dissertation emphasise the importance of pre-tertiary experiences in the analysis of causes of higher-education non-completion in Germany. In addition to pathways to higher education, field-specific experiences such as vocational training or occupational experiences are decisive factors, especially for explaining non-completion in post-secondary STEM education.

9.3.2. Part 2: Consequences of higher-education non-completion

Chapters 7 and 8 examined the labour market outcomes of higher-education dropouts. In Chapter 7 I had a closer look at the importance of formal qualifications for first employment transitions and the occupational positions of higher-education dropouts and graduates of higher education and vocational training. In Chapter 8 I assessed how macro-level labour market conditions affect the first labour market outcomes of higher- education dropouts and graduates, respectively.

The results in Chapter 7 show that higher-education dropouts profit very much from a vocational training degree in their transition into the labour market. While dropouts without vocational qualifications have by far the highest risk of remaining without a stable job, dropouts with vocational qualifications have considerably better

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chances of entering a stable job. Their transition rates are comparable to those of higher- education graduates. This result indicates that a formal vocational qualification seems to offset the disadvantages of dropping out by smoothing the transition from education to the labour market. Among dropouts, I found that vocational training qualifications provide a stronger signal to prospective employers than higher-education experiences. However, a smooth transition into the labour market does not necessarily equate with high occupational positions: a job seeker might choose a less attractive job in order to avoid long periods of unemployment. Therefore I also run models comparing the occupational status (ISEI) of first job entrants with different educational outcomes.These models indicate that an additional formal vocational qualification does not improve the occupational status of the first stable job; nor does a non-completed higher-education course lower the occupational status of the first job. The results show no significant difference in the occupational status of the first stable job between vocational training graduates and higher-education dropouts with and without vocational training qualifications.Thus, these results challenge the signalling value of a vocational training qualification. Therefore I conclude that entering the German labour market without formal qualifications is risky. When searching for the perfect candidate, employers indeed seem to use these signals as a screening device. However, I find no advantage for those with vocational qualifications concerning the final occupational position. Among the successful candidates, only a completed higher-education degree results in higher status scores.

In Chapter 8 I clarified the importance of a higher-education degree during economic downturns in Germany. In line with the results of Chapter 7, I find that, in general, higher-education dropouts have lower transition rates than higher-education graduates. This disadvantage increases with higher unemployment rates. Subsequent analyses of occupational positions reveal that higher-education dropouts enter significantly lower-status jobs than graduates. However, the occupational positions of higher-education dropouts remain constant over different unemployment rates, whereas the job status of graduates significantly decreases with rising unemployment rates. In conclusion, higher-education dropouts lose from increasing unemployment rates when securing their first jobs but the occupational position of dropouts varies little in times of weakening labour market conditions. The results highlight that graduates are at more of a

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disadvantage than dropouts during economic downturns concerning their occupational position.

In line with the second main guiding research question of this dissertation – “Are higher-education dropouts worse off in terms of first labour market outcomes compared to upper-secondary education leavers with additional formal qualifications, such as higher-education or vocational training credentials?” – the results of this dissertation suggest that dropouts generally have lower occupational outcomes than higher-education graduates. If I compare the occupational positions of higher-education dropouts with those of vocational training graduates, however, I cannot detect any labour market disadvantage for dropouts. Furthermore, analysing the effectiveness of changing labour market conditions on occupational outcomes shows a strong resistance of higher- education dropouts to different labour market conditions in Germany. In summary, this dissertation proves that higher-education non-completion has consequences for first labour market outcomes, but that they are not as strong as expected.

Pulling it all together, this work shows that field-specific pre-tertiary experiences are important factors for explaining higher-education non-completion in Germany. Furthermore, higher-education dropouts can benefit from pre-tertiary vocational qualifications when entering the labour market, since they ensure a smooth transition. In addition, the status of the first jobs of higher-education dropouts is relatively consistent with students who have a vocational training degree only (although the status is lower than higher-education graduates’ first jobs). Last but not least, the first occupational position of higher-education dropouts remains stable independent of the labour market conditions. Thus since higher-education dropouts find their way into the labour market, higher-education non-completion is not a waste of resources.