I’ll usually bring speculative hands in for 2-2.5 times the big blind from early position if I’m first in, 3 times the big blind in middle position, and 3-4 times in late position, just as I do with my big hands, although I’ll occasionally limp with them if I’m under the gun or second to act (see below).
Bringing it in for a raise with hands such as these allows me to represent AK when an ace or a king flops, while disguising the strength of my hand when I hit the flop. In today’s game, many players put you on two high cards when you raise pre-flop, especially when you raise from early position. They’re looking for small cards to flop to take the pot away from you. When a big card flops and you bet, they’re usually done with the hand, but when small cards flop and you make what appears to be a continuation bet (around a half to two-thirds of the pot), they may put in a big raise.
If you raise with 6 5 , for example, and the flop comes something like T 6 5 , a half-pot bet will often be misread and your opponent may raise. You can now win a nice pot either by immediately re-raising or check-raising the turn. If the board is connected or has two to a suit, I lean toward a big re-raise on the flop—pot-sized or perhaps all-in. On an unconnected flop against an aggressive player who’s likely to bet again on the turn, I’d be more inclined to just call his
raise on the flop and look to check, then make a big move raise, due to fear of being re-raised off their hand. Hands such as medium pairs are often content to just limp along and see the flop under these circumstances, rather than raise. Your limp will often attract multiple limpers, giving you great pot odds for your speculative hands. Also, if you hit the flop big, such as flopping a set, someone is probably going to like his hand well enough to play with you.
How often would I raise versus limping when playing speculative hands upfront? About 85% raise, 15% call.
My usual raise from early position is about 2-2.5 times the big blind, with no ante and with an ante, respectively.
About 85% of the time I’ll make this raise with both speculative hands and big pairs, while limping in the other 15%. The more aggressive the table, the more I’m likely to limp with big pairs, especially if they’ve seen me limp a couple of times with speculative holdings. I’ll also raise to 2-2.5 times the big blind from up front with hands such as AJs, AQ, and AK, as well as with big pairs. Mixing it up this way, observant players can’t be confident about the strength of my hand.
Chen and Ankenman, in their book The Mathematics of Poker, present a solid math-based case for bringing it in with a raise, using smaller raises upfront and bigger raises as the action progresses around the table. This policy gives the big blind a difficult decision. The early raises generally indicate a stronger hand than the latter ones, so even though an upfront raise is small, the blinds are often up against a strong hand. Larger raises from near the button may represent weaker hands than upfront raises, but give the blinds worse odds to call. Of course, the tighter the blinds, the less the amount you need to raise. Pros probe for a minimum raise threshold, risking the minimum required to induce a fold. In some situations, this may be as little as 2-2.5 times the big blind, even from late position.
I’ll usually raise with speculative hands only when I’m
first in. If another player has raised, I’ll call; if there’s already been a limp or two, I’ll limp along. I’m looking to flop 2-pair or better or a big draw. If I flop only one pair, I’ll proceed cautiously. I don’t want to get busy in a pot with only one pair and a weak kicker, even if it’s top pair. This doesn’t mean I won’t bet it—I will—but if my bet gets called, I’m likely to slow down and keep the pot small by checking the turn, unless I improve further. This also provides the opportunity to pick off a river bluff, should my opponent decide to get frisky.
In deciding whether or not to call a raise when we have a speculative hand, we use the Rule of 5 and 102. If it costs us 5% of our stack or less, we call; if it costs 10% of our stack or more, we fold. In between is a judgment call, depending on how facile you are at post-flop play, your position, and the quality of your hand. Lee almost invariably calls up to 8% of his stack, if he’s near the button.
Notice that the bigger your stack relative to the blinds, the more likely you are to fall within the Rule of 5 and 10.
This flexibility often allows the better new-school players to keep accumulating chips right up to the final table. Also notice, however, that when you have more chips than a target opponent, it’s the size of his stack that this rule applies to. No matter how many chips you have, you can’t win more than your opponent’s stack, so implied odds applies only to the lesser of the two stacks.
If more than 10% of your stack is at risk if you call an early-position raise, this doesn’t necessarily mean that you should fold. It just means that calling isn’t your best option.
Moving in or folding then become your optimal choices.
I’m a strong proponent of this key concept. I always love to open with a raise, because it enables me to effectively hide the range of the hands I play. Bringing it in with a raise is a proactive approach; it makes you unpredictable and difficult for your opponents to read.
For example, if you open-raise from UTG with 7 5 and you only get one caller, you’ll often be able to steal the pot when any scare card, such as an A or a K, flops. As always though, you need to be aware of your table image and how your style impacts the table dynamics. The only time I simply limp is when I’m sitting at a hyper-aggressive table with frequent raises. I then try to control the pot size based on my stack. Except for such circumstances, which are
fairly rare, enter hands with a raise as often as possible!