Potential for coordination in the case of an event-driven or threat-driven response

In the case of a large-scale disaster, such as flooding because of storm surges, hurricanes, tsunamis or extreme river discharges, many stakeholders will be confronted by the threat and have to use limited resources and traffic infrastructure (Kolen and Helsloot 2012b). The activities of emergency services might interfere with measures to minimise the loss of life and damage during a mass evacuation. Traffic control by police forces, for example, could increase the time needed for evacuation. An attempt to register all evacuated persons might limit evacuation itself. The theory of Distributed Decision Making, defined as the design and coordination of connected decisions (Rasmussen et al. 1991), other literature describes how multiple decisions in a situation with multiple interests of organisations and citizens are related (Schneeweiss 2003). In modern democracies, the responsibilities of the government are spread over several independent organisations in such a way that they cannot be completely controlled by a central body. Most likely a decision by one of the authorities will not be exactly in line with the decision of others, even when these decisions are guided by laws as illustrated by the exercise Waterproef in section 5.6. Additionally, during daily routine and during a crisis, organisations aims to fulfil their own tasks and responsibilities.

3.2.1

Threat-driven response

In the case of a threat-driven response, after the detection of a threat the authorities and citizens can transform the society from day-to-day circumstances into an evacuation mode. During this transformation, conditions can be created that support the evacuation but limit other (economic or social) activities. Based on early warnings as well as other signals, and because of the knowledge of the threat, the authorities and citizens become aware and will make sense of the situation (they will understand the threat and be willing to act on this information). Whether a warning is early or not depends on the time needed to complete the measure.

The authorities can influence the effectiveness of the evacuation by influencing the use of infrastructure, the use of resources such as emergency services and the army and by influencing the public through communication. Traffic management can be implemented to support the outflow of traffic. For those who evacuate, optimal circumstances can be created (the evacuation mode). Examples are the contraflow system in New Orleans (LA-DOTD 2009) and the National Traffic Management in the Netherlands (Wegh 2008). By implementing these types of measures, the environment, and especially the infrastructure, can be transformed to create a greater capacity for a mass evacuation.

Many studies have argued that citizens will act in a rational manner in the case of a crisis (Helsloot and Ruitenberg 2004; Quarantelli 1999; Perry 2003b). Citizens will take measures when they feel threatened and evacuate themselves to a place that they think is appropriate for them. The citizens’ responses during an evacuation are strongly influenced by their belief in their own capabilities (Sillem 2005). Citizens gather information using multiple sources,

such as the Internet, radio, television and social media. This information, as well as opinions, is partly distributed by the authorities and by the media, family structures or social networks, experts and other citizens using (social) media. Thus, views other than those of the government will be widely available and compete to be heard and believed. The authorities can also be aware of this process and support by providing additional information. When more information is provided, the literature shows that citizens act in a more appropriate way (Mileti et al. 1975) and effectiveness of evacuation can increase (Huibregtse 2013).

In the case of a threat, mass communication campaigns about the risk and the disaster can inform the public about the risk and possible measures. The authorities can also pay extra attention to special groups, such as people at care institutions. These measures will influence the citizens’ response and use of the infrastructure. Communication can be specified up to the personal level to increase effectiveness of evacuation (Huibregtse 2013). When time is limited, a risk-based approach can identify the most vulnerable areas and select the most effective measures or strategies. Finally, this might reduce loss of life and damage because people will be able to make better choices.

With or without a call for evacuation by the authorities, people may initiate an evacuation spontaneously. By definition, the perception of the risk is not equal to the real risk; therefore, areas that will not be exposed can evacuate. This is called a shadow evacuation (Mitchell et al. 2007; DHS 2006). The response of the public can reduce the capacity of an infrastructure, for example, by causing an overload of a highway and making extra trips that cause interference with other routes. Furthermore, people may separate and evacuate in more cars, resulting in a higher traffic load and congestion. The impact of overloading the infrastructure becomes clear not only during normal traffic jams but also when more people evacuate than is necessary in the case of a spontaneous evacuation or shadow evacuation. This could further reduce the effectiveness of evacuation. Additionally, a higher load on the road networks outside the evacuation zone will decrease the outflow rate of the threatened area because others will also use the road capacity. This is illustrated by the contra flow system of New Orleans, where traffic management is be implemented in the states of Louisiana and Mississippi to support evacuation of the coastal areas and New Orleans (Wolshon 2006).

3.2.2

Event-driven response

In the case of an event-driven response, multiple stakeholders are directly faced with the local consequences which will initiate their response. Most of the responses during the initial stages after any large-scale (threat driven) disaster are provided at a local level by local emergency personnel and bystanders (Yang 2010; De Ville De Goyet 2000). The location of the people, what they see, know and understand about the disaster and the consequences influences their perception of what is going on. The theory of Natural Decision Making describes how people decide based on the situation with which they are confronted. It is known that decisions are made in split seconds (Fjellman 1976). This theory can be applied to citizens as well as emergency personnel and decision makers. Local emergency services or first responders will be directly involved because their personnel are in the vicinity and will start to act. The available rescue workers, means and use of other infrastructure are, by definition, not optimally situated for the event because the characteristic of the event is not known in advance. Additionally, nearby citizens will begin to help each other.

When a disaster occurs, the people and first responders of emergency services in the field only see what is happening in their surroundings and first of all add information to the

common operation picture. Based on this information, and their own capabilities, they will start to rescue themselves or others. Local commanders or first responders cannot wait to make their choices because the (top strategic) decision makers elsewhere in crisis centers have to gather information and analyse the situation and define instructions. Over time, more information about the flood or evacuation becomes available to the first responders, society and the decision makers via the crisis centres. However, this information is never perfect because gaps and overloads remain, and it is out-dated after interpretation because the local situation changes very quickly.

This means that coordination (between authorities and their crisis centers and decision makers, emergency organisations and their crisis teams and decision makers, experts and first responders in the field) with a hierarchical body will slowly develop. Information systems can fail or people can be overloaded with information. Using information about the threat and consequences (possible scenarios), where the rescue workers and resources are located and about the response of the citizens will support the impact of the coordination over time because decision making will improve (Aldunate et al. 2005). This process will be influenced by gaps as well as overloads in information, rumours and false information. The availability of information does not automatically lead to the optimal decisions to minimise loss of life and damage. Different stakeholders can give different frames to information based on their objectives and perceptions (Brugnach et al. 2008). Decision makers therefore should accept that information is never perfect and therefore decide using imperfect information and deal with uncertainty. Top strategic decision in crisis centers is limited to influence on-going response, however it can influence the nearby future, as in case of a flood the next hours or days, to create better conditions for the (citizen) response and recovery.

3.2.3

Perspective of evacuation in the case of a threat-driven response

A call for evacuation in the case of a threat-driven response means that decision makers (or citizens) are willing to cause economic damage and even accept the loss of life (by evacuation) to reduce the uncertain consequences of another, potentially worse, event. Because of the existing of early warning systems and crisis management structures, the authorities can provide some advantages to citizens at the time that they become aware of the threat. For example, the authorities can be warned by the following:

 Meteorological offices that make weather forecasts in cases of a threat due to extreme weather;

 Hydro Meteo centres and centres for Water Management regarding flood risk;  Earthquake centres and volcanic centres regarding the monitoring processes;  Intel services regarding the risk of terrorist attacks.

An evacuation in a threat-driven response and can therefore be organised or facilitated to some degree. Therefore, measures have to be implemented in time to anticipate on nearby response. The day to day life when people go to school and work has to be transformed in in a new situation. This new situation is called the “evacuation mode” and has to be created to maximise the effectiveness for evacuation. In case of threat-driven response the decision to create an evacuation mode is made by top strategic decision makers. Will they act using early warnings, or will they continue with their daily work, which may also include various deadlines? Emergency personnel and citizens are not immediately confronted with the need to act during the early stage of a threat-driven response, especially when the probability is very low. This response has to be initiated by decision makers and organised by crisis managers.

Except for top strategic decision makers, no one else is directly confronted with the consequences. Therefore the pressure to make decisions might be limited because limited people are aware. This might result in calls for further information gathering and a delay of decision making while others become aware and autonomous response will start based on their own interpretation of the information and their own role (Cannon-Bowers and Salas 1998; Zsambok and Klein 1997). Critical moments could pass such that some emergency measures (such as a preventive evacuation) can no longer be completed. When more people and authorities are involved and when they start to make decisions, it will be more difficult to develop and maintain a common picture and implement measures in time based on an overall perspective. It cannot be guaranteed that all citizens and all governmental organisations will act as hoped by the central authority despite that information is available about a threat (using scenarios) and reports about decisions made. The role of decision makers is further elaborated in chapter 5, the transition phase in the next section.