4.4 Powering Autonomous vehicles
History has taught us that automotive manufacturing companies are likely to lead the way when it comes to the emergent technologies of the future. The motor industry has placed itself at the forefront of the decision making to fix the problems of their
creation. As discussed in chapter four, industry and governments have decided that the future of personal transportation lies in electric vehicles, yet how this decision has been made is unclear. While the objectives of producing cleaner vehicles for cities undoubtedly is a good one, there are a few concerns about how the specific
technology has been chosen when there are alternatives. Interestingly, early cars used batteries and electric motors as a form of propulsion. However, the petrol car was chosen not because of reliability, but because of the range and problems with access to charging stations (Høyer, 2008). The same challenges for battery-powered cars still exist today, as they did some 100 years ago.
The term ‘zero emissions’ is seen all over the electric car industry, but the term should perhaps be used with a little more caution. The objective of achieving zero emissions transport is the right trajectory but the realities need to be considered. For example, an electric zero emissions vehicle may not produce emissions while driving down the road, but the batteries are charged using electricity from a combination of fuels
including coal, gas, biomass, nuclear, and renewables. In 2017, only 27.9% of electricity was produced by renewable energy (Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, 2018). Long-term government targets are to increase renewable energy to achieve zero emissions by 2050 (Environment Agency, 2019). The need for more renewables is brought to light by the fact that an electric car produces a total 124g/km of CO2 when taking into account the inefficiencies of the UK grid and the energy
required to produce the batteries (Saarinen, 2019). By comparison a diesel Volkswagen Golf produces 104g/km (Volkswagen UK, 2019). These government targets are the right way forward, but there are often consequences to these decisions that need to be better considered and managed. The technologies to deliver the renewables themselves are not without their own emissions; they are produced using silicone and metals, including steel and aluminium. These materials have high levels of embodied
energy and are typically mined and produced in parts of the world without strict environmental policies (Etchart et al., 2012).
Electric cars themselves share some of the same issues, with lithium being mined in developing parts of the world, there are severe consequences to the ecosystems and the lives of people living near to these mines (Katwala, 2019). There are for some people equally severe consequences to the growing demand for ‘clean energy’ as there is from the burning of fossil fuels. The salt flats of South America are becoming some of the most intensively extracted areas of the world, not for oil but for lithium.
There are concerns being raised about the process being used to evaporate the lithium from the salt water brine. This is causing a demand for water depriving communities, in an area of the world where water is already in short supply (Agusdinata et al., 2018).
The health impacts of mining lithium through evaporation are also currently unknown.
Lithium is a highly mobile element and so it is likely that the metal is blown from the evaporating ponds, contaminating both the environment and local communities and ultimately posing a risk of death at even very low levels of exposure (Figueroa et al., 2012).
Throughout the discourse surrounding the issue of emissions, there appears to be an agenda of displacement. Electric cars displace the emissions to power stations in the UK countryside and mines in Chile. Renewables displace the manufacturing emissions to places like China. All too often, the future is not considered as part of a complex holistic system but focuses around improving small parts of the wealthiest places in the world such as London and Paris. John Urry discusses such issues of displacement of wealth and energy in his book Offshoring (2014). Displacement exists around
emissions, waste, energy, wealth and tax, there is an argument to stop this offshoring or at least recognise it and understand its implications on global society (Urry, 2014).
All too often these issues are hidden or not understood, and this appears to be true of future vehicles.
There seems to be a one size fits all and oversimplification of the realities communicated by manufacturers and governments which is at times misleading
citizens (Watson et al., 2015). There is also little consideration to those individuals who are not the priority for government targets. To give an example, today there is only one electric vehicle which can be fitted with a tow bar. This means that a farmer wishing to move hay bales or take their sheep to market would have to in invest an eye-watering £73,900 in a Tesla Model X (Tesla.com, 2019) compared £19,965 for a Mitsubishi L200 (Mitsubishi-motors.co.uk, 2019). Also, the Model X can only tow 2270Kg compared to the L200 3500kg, making it a far less useful tool for moving sheep, cattle and being less efficient. The act of towing also has a profound effect on the range of an electric vehicle with customers reporting a real-world range of fewer than 100 miles when towing (Hanley, 2019). This means that for a Highland sheep farmer, there would be insufficient infrastructure required to make using an electric vehicle feasible. Today there are currently no long-distance electric trucks available.
Tesla is saying that they will have a truck capable of travelling 600 miles fully loaded on a single charge (Autocar, 2019). However, Daimler says that Tesla’s figures defy the laws of physics (Autocar, 2019). What is undoubtedly clear is that our demand for electricity and lithium is only set to grow.
Both industry and government seem entirely set on an electric future run off batteries.
Dyson, TerraE Holdings and Tesla are investing over $1 billion each in new battery technologies and factories (Wang, 2017). The UK government is investing a further
£246 million into new battery technologies. There is going to have to be either a breakthrough in alternative technologies, or a major policy shift to change this course (Innovate UK, 2017). Currently the electricity grid is strained and managing peak demand has been a long-standing challenge, electric vehicles will only worsen this situation. Achieving an entirely electric transport model by 2035, the date predicted by ING, seems to be a near impossible challenge (Vaughan, 2017) without a major shift in behaviours, to create a synergic relationship between production and use. Currently the highest demand is around 9:00am and 18:00pm, with a much lower peak load during at night and in the summer (Gridwatch.co.uk, 2017). When we look at our current movement habits, we predominantly move during rush hour 7:00 to 9:00 and 17:00 to 19:00. There is a correlation between current energy peak use and potential future energy demand from electric vehicles (Figure 4.33). It is not necessarily the total
energy consumed by electric vehicle which is of concern, but the short time scale in which the energy is drawn.
Figure 4.33. Green areas show current energy demand, while white areas show predicted increase in demand from electric vehicles. Based on National Grid 2050 projections. Data: April 2016 - March 2017 (Source. Gridwatch.co.uk, 2017).
A journey from Birmingham to Manchester at motorway speeds can equal the electricity usage of the average home, over 48 hours, approximately 24 kWh, yet the vehicle could be recharged in approximately 20 minutes (Henretty, 2013). Cars like houses also use more energy to operate in colder weather, both batteries, motors and heaters are less efficient, reducing the range in some cars by up to 33% (Renault, 2017). The current expectation of the consumer, is to recharge vehicles, as quickly as possible once they arrive at their destination, making the vehicle immediately ready for another journey. We need to consider a method of modifying expectations and behaviour and autonomous technologies, may certainly have a role to play in this.
Models such as variable pricing could reduce demand when the electricity grid is strained. Other methods such as linking up passengers and sharing journeys to reduce energy demand also need to be considered.