Predictive Analysis

Economic multipliers are a frequently used tool in the generalized calculation of the effects of development that include and extend beyond the direct impacts attributed to the original project. Lewis et al. (1979) described a variety of multipliers which can provide a quick estimate of the total impact of change within a specific region or economic sector. An aggregate

employment multiplier for example can be applied to the current situation with the proposed Dodds-Roundhill Coal Gasification Project. A review of the accuracy of employment multipliers in relation to the construction of major power plants from Freudenburg (1986) provides a

multiplier value of 1.2 during the construction phase and 1.3 during the operation phase. Sherritt has released approximate, preliminary employment numbers of 3,300 jobs over the 3 year construction period and 340 full-time positions for the 40 years of projected operation (Ludwig, 2009). Applying the employment multipliers to these projections:

Construction Phase:

3,300 direct jobs + (0.2 indirect jobs x 3,300 direct jobs)

= 3,300 x 1.2

= 3,960 total jobs Operation Phase:

340 direct jobs + (0.3 indirect jobs x 340 direct jobs)

= 340 x 1.3

= 442 total jobs

The communities can therefore expect a total increase of 3,960 jobs in the area during the initial years of construction and 442 permanent, full-time jobs over the life of the project as a result of the proposed development in the region. However, community concerns regarding the filling of these jobs by local residents verses migrants into the area is not addressed by the employment multiplier.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Yes No Neutral bigger school more police open childcare more recreation facilities

Adequate Who said "No"

Social Infrastructure

Percentage of Respondents

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From survey responses it is clear that a large portion of the workforce (estimates ranged from 65%-80%) in Tofield and Ryley commute to surrounding communities for employment.

This assessment appears to be a fair depiction of the communities after considering the number and size of businesses in each community, and the employment and commuting patterns reported by Statistics Canada 2006 Community Profiles. Of the 485 persons employed in the labour force (15+ years-of-age) residing in Tofield with a usual place of work outside of the home, 230 people are employed within the town, 40 people work elsewhere within Beaver County, and 210 people work in a different county altogether. Of the 135 persons employed in the labour force (15+

years-of-age) residing in Ryley with a usual place of work outside of the home, 30 people are employed within the village, 35 people work elsewhere within Beaver County, 60 people work in a different county, and 10 people work out of province. To summarize, 250 Tofield residents or 34.2% of the employed labour force, and 105 residents of Ryley or 65.6% of the employed labour force commute to their jobs.

Greenwood and Hunt (1984) have shown that, on average, for every two new jobs created one of those jobs will be filled by a person migrating into that region. This hypothesis however, is likely on the conservative side if consideration is given to the specific skill sets required for employment in mining operations. Alternatively, the strong presence of industrial, trade and manufacturing skill sets currently available in the area may see more local employment than would normally be expected (Statistics Canada 2006 Community Profiles). As it applies to the Dodds-Roundhill proposal this theory would equate to, at most, 1,980 jobs during construction and 221 jobs over mine operation that would be available to local residents. This could

potentially alleviate the need for some job seekers, especially those in Ryley, to travel outside of the Beaver County, if not the towns themselves in order to secure employment. Commuting patterns however are also dependent upon the in-migration of workers and whether they will choose to reside in the communities themselves or in the surround areas.

While economic multipliers can provide a quick estimate of total, direct and indirect, project impacts they prone to error and misinformation because of the unique specifications of each area and proposal. Multipliers overlaid onto an area for which they were not specifically developed may make inappropriate assumptions regarding geography, population and/or economy size (Lewis et al. 1979). These limitations should be kept in mind as they apply strongly to the conclusion drawn above in regards to the predicted employment impacts of the proposed Dodds-Roundhill Coal Gasification Project on the communities of Tofield and Ryley.

4. CONCLUSION

Analysis of community response in regards to questions derived from social indicators revealed distinctive patterns in opinion throughout the municipalities of Tofild and Ryley. In general residents were less well informed, in regards to the details of the proposed Dodds-Roundhill Coal Gasification Project, than were either representatives of businesses or public institutions. Overall, the expectation of the municipalities is one where approval of the proposed project would be beneficial for their community. However, research revealed underlying

divisions both between the municipalities and within each community despite a general attitude of acceptance. Project approval was often voiced in terms of economic benefits, while concerns regarding impacts on social quality of life were often less emphasized. Specifically, local job creation and the economic growth associated with a larger population are the most anticipated aspects of the project. Analysis of projected employment opportunities suggests fewer locals may find jobs directly or indirectly with the project than expected. In contrast, concern for the

farmers’ situations, environmental issues, infrastructure adequacy and crime levels were raised but generally had less impact on personal feelings towards the project.

From these results there is evidence of a need for the provision of a more comprehensive project plan from the proponent, Sherritt International, to reduce some of the uncertainty faced by

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individuals within the communities. Additionally, the municipalities would both benefit from greater dialogue about their long-term vision for their communities and whether this project can help them achieve that vision or not. More opportunities to collectively discuss, develop and implement sustainable social, economic and environmental goals would encourage more resident involvement.

Further study would provide a better understanding of the social impacts given an extended time frame and larger sample size. The conclusions reached in this study are restricted by the scope of the indicators, limited sample size, and limited opportunity for detailed analysis of both the questions and the survey responses. As well, the predictive analysis provides a guideline for expectations but is limited in usefulness by the overlay of general multipliers onto the current situation.

5. REFERENCES

Baines, J., W. McClinock, N. Taylor, B Buckenham. 2003. Using local knowledge. In Becker and Vanclay (Ed.), The international handbook of social impact assessment (p.26-41).

Northhampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.

Clayton, A.D., Griffith, J.CH., Price, P., Peters, C.A. 2002. Food handlers’ beliefs and self-reported practices. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 12:25-39.

Freudenburg, W.R. 1986. Social impact assessment. Annual Review of Sociology, 2, p. 451-478.

Graham, K. 1983. Introduction to Survey Sampling. Beverly Hills: Sage, p. 1-47.

Greenwood, M.J. and G. L. Hunt. 1984. Migration and interregional employment redistribution in the U.S. American Economic Review, 74, p. 957-69.

Heiberg, Kierstin. 2007. Participatory social impact assessment of the Sherritt Dodds-Roundhill coal gasification project: Draft summary report.

Lewis, E., R. Youmans, G. Goldman and G. Premer. 1979. Economic multipliers: Can a rural community use them? A Western Regional Extension Publication, 24.

Ludwig, Ben. 2009. Dodds-Roundhill Coal Gasification Project [PowerPoint slides].

Statistics Canada 2006 Community Profiles, Ryley Statistics Canada 2006 Community Profiles, Tofield

Sherritt International. 2007. Dodds-Roundhill Coal Gasification Project: Public disclosure document. Available at

http://www.sherritt.com/doc08/files/coal/dodds/Dodds_Roundhill_PDD_FINAL_Jan_3.p df (accessed March 30, 2009).

Slootweg, R., F. Vanclay, M. van Schooten. 2003. Integrating environmental and social impact assessment. In Becker and Vanclay (Ed.), The international handbook of social impact assessment (p.56-73). Northhampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.

Singleton, R.A. and C.S. Bruce.C.S. 2005. Chapter 8. In Approaches to Social Research. 4^th Edition. New York: Oxford University Press, p.219-262.

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Round Hill Dodds Agriculture Protective Association. 2007. Accomplishments. Available at:

http://www.rhdapa.org/rhd1acc.htm (accessed April 5, 2009).

Vanclay, Frank. 2003. Conceptual and methodological advances in social impact assessment. In Becker and Vanclay (Ed.), The international handbook of social impact assessment (p.1-9). Northhampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.

6. APPENDIX A: SIA Municipalities Interview Schedule