Risk Management
PRINCIPAL RISK DESCRIPTION MITIGATING ACTIONS/CONTROLS
1. Outstanding Service
We are unable to maintain an outstanding service at a fair price
Related Strategic Objectives:
Invest in systems, people & processes Transform Membership, the brand and
our commercial model Deliver a step-change in our
digital capability
The AA’s brand and its continued success rely on delivering outstanding service at a fair price. The lack of any significant investment in IT processes and systems in recent years will, if not addressed, impact on our continued ability to deliver the service level our Members expect.
We will continue to maintain and protect the ability of our patrols to deliver excellent customer service by providing them with better information delivered through enhanced IT systems and connectivity. We will enhance our marketing and increase the extent of our customer engagement to demonstrate the value of our Membership offerings. On-going monitoring of complaints, press reports and social media informs our service offerings.
2. Roadside Market Share and Margin
We are unable to maintain our market share and gross margin on our roadside services
Related Strategic Objectives:
Transform Membership, the brand and our commercial model
Continue to develop the core Roadside Assistance business via innovation and optimisation
Competitors that provide roadside services at a lower price together with changes in car technology threaten our roadside revenues. This requires us to demonstrate more clearly that we deliver a consistent, superior level of service and ensure our pricing remains competitive for the services we deliver.
The IT transformation programme we are undertaking will enable us to improve our overall contact with customers materially, consolidating disparate customer data and information systems, enhancing our digital offerings and improving further our roadside response.
We are developing and expanding existing added value products and services which will enhance our Membership experience and enable us to be more active in demonstrating the relative benefit of our service levels.
Programmes of immediate and long term initiatives are being undertaken to understand issues and drive lower costs.
3. Growing the business
We are unable to grow the business in a manner that complements and sustains the brand
Related Strategic Objectives:
Capture opportunities in adjacent sectors using the brand
We may be unable to develop and grow new profitable business products and lines that complement the customer experience and which demonstrate standards and values that underly our core brand.
We continue to pursue new opportunities that complement our core brand. We are developing new protocols, enhanced database management, and strengthened compliance and risk functions to ensure that we consistently deliver good products and good customer outcomes.
4. Insurance Business
Broker (AAIS): aggregators and price comparison sites will further damage the insurance broker model
Insurer (AAUICL): higher than anticipated claims costs
Related Strategic Objective:
Evolve the Insurance and Financial Services business models
The further growth of price comparison sites may continue to transfer value from our insurance broking business. There are risks of higher than expected claims frequency, higher average cost per claim and catastrophic claims.
We are using our strengths in the brand, channels and data to mitigate this risk. We are building new capability that should enable us to provide a competitive response to these intermediary sites.
Best practice is deployed to manage claims frequency, development & costs. The solvency structure plus excess of loss reinsurance is used to help protect us against costly individual claims.
5. Regulatory Environment
A changing regulatory environment may adversely affect our activities
Related Strategic Objective:
Evolve the Insurance and Financial Services business models
The changing regulatory environment could cause currently compliant services to become non-compliant with material implications to customer offerings, pricing and profitability.
Failure to comply with regulatory obligations could result in substantial fines.
Changes in Government legislation or taxation could impact the business model.
Close engagement with regulatory objectives is coupled with good governance and strong monitoring processes to ensure that we continue to focus on delivering products and services that result in good customer outcomes.
Our Regulatory and Legal Change Committee tracks forthcoming changes and advises the business on changes required.
Risk Management
Go v e rn a n c e Financ ial S ta temen ts Ou r P e rf o rma n c e
CHANGE IN THE YEAR IMPACT, LIKELIHOOD AND TREND PRIMARY KPIS
(SEE PAGES 24 AND 25)
Improved diagnostic equipment has been rolled out to the Patrol force, vans upgraded, and a multi fit spare wheel put in place. All these initiatives help improve the service to Members and reduce fix time and improve fix rates. The new improved AA App has been launched. More details on these and other initiatives can be found on pages 12-19.
The AA brand marketing campaigns have been substantially extended to demonstrate the AA’s service promise.
Delivering outstanding service at a fair price is fundamental to our future and our brand. The impact of failure would be very high. The actions we have taken in the last year and have planned for the future have significantly reduced the probability of this risk crystallising.
Patrols
Breakdowns attended
We have continued to win and retain contracts and increased market share in the important B2B Roadside market.
Following a successful pilot in March and April 2015, we launched a new product called Basic Breakdown Cover in September. The product is designed to meet the needs of customers only looking for a low cost, stripped back product, and at the same time allows us to continue to promote the benefits of full membership.
During the year the AA entered into partnerships for several proposed new ventures in connected car technology. (See page 17).
The impact of competition on our roadside business could be high if continuous improvement is not made to the AA offering. While we have taken a number of actions during the year to help mitigate this risk we believe overall the risk remains unchanged.
Personal Members Business customer numbers Patrols
Breakdowns attended
The AA launched a new partnership with Bank of Ireland UK who will now provide most of the AA’s non insurance related Financial Services products. India Roadside Assistance Joint Venture signed with TVS in July.
Automyze has been launched, an innovative online platform which allows motorists to manage everything to do with car ownership securely online and for free.
The new AA Garage Guide connects motorists with great local garages, and allows them to book online for all their servicing, maintenance and repair needs.
The immediate impact is low as this is more a long term matter. While steps have been taken to grow the business it is too early to be able to tell with certainty if this risk has now reduced.
Personal Members Insurance policies Trading EBITDA Total Shareholder Return
We have launched our in house underwriter which will allow us to better compete in the insurance market place.
We are continuing to improve our website TheAA.com to encourage new business via this important channel.
We are strengthening direct to Member marketing.
Our new in house underwriter launched in January 2016, becoming a member of our Broking panel. Reinsurance was put in place to mitigate the new underwriting risks this introduced to the Group.
The competitive threat from aggregators has not changed during the year; the launch of our in house insurer should help to mitigate the risks to our insurance business in due course reducing the present high impact and likelihood.
This is a new Principal Risk. Without reinsurance and best practice in claims handling the potential impact would be high. We have put in place processes to reduce both the potential impact and the likelihood of this risk occurring.
NEW
Insurance policies
Key developments in the regulatory landscape include the FCA policy statement on additional optional products (‘add-ons’) and their consultation paper on the disclosure of last year’s price in renewal invitations.
The AA Legislative and Regulatory Change Heat Map and Radar used to monitor this type of risk has been enhanced and relaunched during the 2016 financial year. This helps ensure that we identify proposed changes in the legal environment early on and have the opportunity to take part in consultations on the proposals and where appropriate lobby for changes. It also ensures we prepare to implement required changes on a timely basis.
The Government has announced two increases to insurance premium tax (“IPT”) in succeeding budget statements.
The regulatory environment is expected to continue to be dynamic with a continuing programme of regulatory initiatives. These additional requirements may drive further commoditisation into the market at the expense of superior service differentiation. Continued increases in IPT could make insurance products including Roadside Assistance less affordable for our customers.
PRINCIPAL RISK DESCRIPTION MITIGATING ACTIONS/CONTROLS
6. Business Transformation
We are unable to successfully complete the essential business transformation
Related Strategic Objective:
Invest in systems, people and processes
We need to continue to develop new management processes to achieve the transformation required to develop the business.
An accelerated business transformation programme is underway to recruit, develop and retain the required talent and enhance existing systems and management processes. We have a talent management model which we use. Where gaps are identified, development and/or recruitment interventions are put in place.
7. IT Transformation
We are unable to successfully deliver the essential IT transformation required
Related Strategic Objectives:
Invest in systems, people and processes Deliver a step-change in our
digital capability
An essential programme of renewal and enhancement of our IT estates is in progress to address the risks to our brand and our competitive capability. It is extensive and involves a complex programme of work over the next 6 to 12 months. Given the scale and complexity, the programme involves inherent risks to the timely delivery of this implementation.
The management team is driving the overall programme supported by our risk management processes.
The IT transformation is being led by executives with a proven track record of IT delivery. It is generally using proven technologies and where possible is being implemented and rolled out in discrete stages. Progress is overseen by the IT & Digital Transformation Steering Group.
8. Debt
The AA is a highly leveraged company with a substantial pension fund, currently in deficit
Related Strategic Objective:
Reduce Group borrowings and the associated interest costs
The Company is unable to repay or refinance its debt at an acceptable price.
The Company has a large pension scheme, currently in deficit, whose assets and obligations are subject to future variation from investment returns, longevity and other similar factors.
We have strong recurring cash flows which support the current capital structure, and which will enable us to reduce leverage over time in line with our stated strategy.
The AA pension scheme is supported by a company covenant and the assets and obligations of the scheme are kept under review.
9. Information Security/Cyber Crime
Related Strategic Objectives:
Invest in systems, people and processes Deliver a step-change in our
digital capability
Critical information is not available where and when it is needed. The integrity of critical information is corrupted or the confidentiality of commercially sensitive, private or customer information is compromised by inappropriate disclosure.
The AA has an ongoing programme of security improvements to try and maintain a suitable level of security for the increasingly sophisticated world-wide cyber threats. Controls include information security awareness training, preventative and detective security, a specialist information security team, and information security requirements being included in third party arrangements.
The AA benchmarks its security controls against the Center for Protection of National Infrastructure (CPNI) and associated Critical Security Controls (CSC).
Further information on financial risk management objectives and policies, including market, credit and liquidity risks is included in note 26 of the financial statements. Details on the Group’s strategic objectives are included on pages 12 to 19.
Risk Management
Go v e rn a n c e Financ ial S ta temen ts Ou r P e rf o rma n c e
CHANGE IN THE YEAR IMPACT, LIKELIHOOD AND TREND PRIMARY KPIS
(SEE PAGES 24 AND 25)
A Transformation Director has been appointed to oversee the continued work to achieve the development of new management processes across the Group and maximise the benefits to be obtained from our IT renewal programme. Our Marketing, Digital, Product and Pricing teams have been enhanced with new senior appointments.
Our HR team has been reorganised to support the business better.
Failure to successfully transform the business would have a significant impact on our long term growth. Strong management and oversight have been put in place to manage the risk of failure.
Good progress has been made to identify and start implementing enhanced and new IT systems to better support our business model, provide greater flexibility and good customer outcomes. This complex project is on track to deliver the required enhancements.
Progress includes the successful implementation of a new system for our Home Services business and improved technology support for our patrols.
New IT systems are key to the successful ongoing development of the AA. The impact of a material delay to the implementation of the programme would be high. Proven methodology with specialist IT development skills are in place to manage this risk.
The Company completed a debt restructuring, which reduced the average cost of debt from 5.9% to 5.0%, and lengthened maturities from an average of 5.3 years at 31 January 2015 to 5.7 years at 31 July 2015. Whilst the Company remains highly leveraged, this restructuring improves the ability of the Company to manage unforeseen financial shocks.
The Government has recently announced potential changes to the deduction of interest for Corporation Tax, however the impact of this to the AA is not yet clear.
The next triennial valuation will be carried out as at 31 March 2016. Preliminary indications suggest that the reduction in long term gilt yields since 2013 (the last valuation date) will cause this deficit to increase.
If this risk materialised, the bondholders would appoint an administrative receiver to run the business for cash until all secured debt is repaid. However the AA continues to be a high cash generating organisation and the likelihood is therefore very low and has reduced further since the debt restructuring. With the present volatility in the markets and global economic uncertainty the likelihood of this risk of increasing pension deficits is seen as high.
Leverage Cash conversion Interest cover
While the AA has improved information security controls during the 2016 financial year we consider this risk to be increasing with the growing number of high profile cyber-attacks on organisations.
We consider this to be a continuing emerging/evolving risk and will continue to take additional steps to improve our controls taking guidance from external specialists.
As for any company the impact of this risk crystallising could be substantial. In general for all businesses this risk is increasing with reported cyber-attacks becoming more sophisticated and more frequent.
Viability statement
The Board has assessed the prospects of the Company in the context of the principal risks disclosed above and in the light of the current financial position of the Group. This assessment was considered in the context of the Group’s strategic planning over a period of three years from February 2016. The Directors considered a number of potential downside scenarios to the Group’s plan. These related to the Principal Risks on a scale of the potential impact based on the probability of occurrence.
The ability of the Group to refinance its debt on the various expected maturity dates (as disclosed in note 18) is a key assumption within this assessment. The Directors believe that, given the high liquidity of the sterling bond markets and the strong cash flows of the business, the likelihood of an inability to refinance is very low.
As a highly leveraged business, the Group is subject to loan covenants as well as the broader requirement to pay liabilities when they fall due.
The plan and downside scenarios were therefore assessed both in the context of making payments and meeting loan covenants and the business remained comfortably able to make payments and comply with covenants over the forecast period.
Finally the Board considered what level of stress would cause the business viability to be put into question by means of a reverse stress test. This indicated that the viability of the business would be threatened by an unexpected cash outflow of c£300m during the 2017 financial year, rising to in excess of £500m in the 2019 financial year. The Directors felt it unlikely that an unexpected outflow of this magnitude would occur. Having considered all these elements of the assessment carefully the Board has a reasonable expectation that the business will continue in operation and meet its liabilities as they fall due for at least as long as the strategic planning time horizon.
The AA is committed to building relationships of trust and mutual benefit with all our stakeholders including our Members, customers, shareholders, employees, contractors, suppliers, local charities and local communities. We focus on behaving responsibly, managing risk, and providing support and development. Corporate responsibility runs through the heart of what we do as a business and campaigning body. The car plays an essential role in society and helps many of us to get the most out of our busy lives. It is the most common mode of travel in the UK accounting for 64% of trips made and 78% of distance travelled in 2014. There are now 29.6m cars on our roads. The good news is that progress in car manufacturing technologies over the last decade have delivered positive results for our industry including the reduction of car CO2 emissions from new cars by 26.4%. The new car in 2015 was typically almost 20% more fuel efficient than one bought just five years ago. As a business we also seek to be more efficient by using telematics to monitor fuel consumption of our patrol fleet which saved us more than £1m in the first year. Our IT investments will also help us deliver an even better, more personalised and more relevant service to our Members over the coming year. We have a large-scale digital transformation programme underway which is focused on helping our Members, whilst reducing marketing and administration print costs.
We provide our Members with the best breakdown service and we work hard to deliver this promise in many ways. Our comprehensive customer offering aims to address our Members’ motoring needs. We help them avoid congestion, find parking and the cheapest local fuel with our new AA app. We make it easier for them to keep their car well maintained and legal through our Automyze vehicle management service, and help them find the best garages and check that they are receiving a fair quotation for any work.
Our patrols are our roadside ambassadors, trusted motoring allies who make life for our Members easier and safer. They are often heroes. For example, patrol Iain Gillespie witnessed a motorcycle crash last year