Executive summary
Chapter 3 Problem identification and analysis
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
3. PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS 3.1. Purpose of this chapter
The purpose of this chapter is to define the fundamental problems Inland Rail is seeking to address. It builds upon the vision and strategic context, which outlined impacts for the nation and east coast as a result of inaction to develop freight transport, to focus on freight sector problems specific to the north–south corridor.
The problem analysis and identification influences and underpins the strategic options assessment and ultimately, development of the proposed benefits that Inland Rail will deliver.
3.2. Approach
An Investment Logic Mapping (ILM) process has been adopted to succinctly identify the problems for analysis within this chapter. The ILM process is part of the Investment Management Standard developed by the Victorian
Government’s Department of Treasury and Finance and is a nationally recognised process to ensure complex project evaluations properly articulate the real need for an investment and the benefits the investment is expected to deliver.
The ILM identifies the strategic problems that Inland Rail is responding to, considering the freight sector in the north–
south corridor, rather than just a rail-specific response. This ensures a holistic and rigorous approach to problem identification and analysis. The problem analysis has focused on the most important problems and issues, therefore it is not an exhaustive description of every problem to which Inland Rail will respond.
The ILM shows the direct links between the identified problems and the associated benefits (covered further in Chapter 9, Economic analysis and Chapter 16, Benefits realisation). It then examines the overarching interventions and the solutions to address the problems which include the expected changes in overall service outcomes, and the potential assets that may deliver the service outcomes and expected benefits.
The chapter is structured around each of the identified problem statements and breaks these down into further sub-problems for the purposes of targeted, evidence-based analysis.
3.3. Problem identification
An ILM has been developed to reflect the current strategic context and incorporate problem and benefit statements that have been identified as part of this Programme Business Case (see Figure 3.1). The interventions and solutions provide an indication of the strategic options that have been considered and assessed, the changes in service that are expected and also the potential assets that could be invested in to deliver the expected outcomes and benefits.
The ILM is a complementary supporting document to the Programme Business Case and tells the simplified story of how the identified problems link to the recommended solution(s).
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Figure 3.1 Investment Logic Map
Source: ARTC, 2015.
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
3.4. Problem analysis
Significant freight volume growth in the north–south corridor is projected as a result of population, job and export growth along the east coast of Australia. The interstate freight task alone is projected to increase by 70 per cent by 2030 to 140 billion tonne kilometres.70 The freight network plays a critical role in the national transport task, and needs to cater for this growth.
However, as the analysis in this chapter shows, the ability of current rail and road freight infrastructure in the north–
south corridor to cater for future growth and offer reliable, low cost freight transport options is projected to become constrained over time.
Sea and air freight are not considered viable competitors to rail and road for north–south corridor freight movements along the east coast; for sea freight, this is due to high loading and unloading costs and shorter distances travelled relative to the east–west corridor and for air freight this is due to the nature of goods and higher suitability for small, high value goods as well as those to remote areas.
The ability of freight transport infrastructure to cater for growth and offer efficient, cost effective freight transport services in the north–south corridor of the east coast of Australia into the future is projected to become increasingly constrained, characterised by the following problems:
Capacity: Existing infrastructure between Melbourne and Brisbane has insufficient capacity to meet future freight demand.
Productivity: Current north–south freight infrastructure (road and rail) is constrained and this will increasingly impact negatively on freight productivity.
Social and environment: The continued reliance on road for freight transport will result in increasing safety, environmental and community impacts with associated costs.
Regional and growth: Existing north–south freight infrastructure is impacting regional producers and industries access to efficient supply chain networks, inhibiting productivity and economic growth.
Resilience: Lack of resilience on existing north–south freight infrastructure exposes supply chains to disruptions and sub-optimal reliability.
As rail and road contribute to capacity and freight performance in varying ways, these same problems explained on a mode-by-mode basis, are summarised below:
Road
Lane capacity along the route will be unable to accommodate future freight and other vehicle demand without deteriorating transit time and reliability.
The shared nature of road travel between freight and other road users will create increasing conflicts in the future as demand for both increases in line with population and GDP growth.
Rail
The number of paths available for freight trains will be unable to accommodate future freight demand between Melbourne and Brisbane as well as Melbourne to Sydney to Brisbane.
The ability to accommodate higher productivity trains (longer, higher axle load and double stacked) will be limited in some sections of the corridor.
Lack of redundancy and resilience on rail freight networks exposes supply chains to disruptions.
70 BITRE Research Report 120: Multimodal Interstate Freight in Australia, 2010.
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
If not addressed these problems are expected to impact:
Costs of transport flowing through the supply chain to end users.
Reliability and disruptions to the supply chain impacting customer expectations.
Passenger rail services with network constraints.
Environmental and social impacts including safety, emissions and noise.
Each major problem is discussed and analysed further below.
3.4.1. Capacity: Existing infrastructure between Melbourne and Brisbane has insufficient capacity to meet future freight demand
Lane capacity along the Newell Highway
There is a mix of local traffic, private vehicles and freight vehicles on the major roads and highways between
Melbourne and Brisbane. This reduces the reliability of traffic flows (e.g. as a result of different average travel speeds between cars and heavy vehicles, and difficulties overtaking heavy vehicles) as well as accident rates.
Conflicts between cars and heavy vehicles also increases stop-start traffic conditions, resulting in higher vehicle emissions and operating costs.
The Hume, Newell and Warrego Highways, and Ipswich Motorway comprise the primary road freight route between Melbourne and Brisbane, with the Pacific Highway increasingly being considered as an alternate route. A significant program of investment has been completed on the Hume and Pacific Highway’s. Investment in the construction of the Toowoomba Second Range Crossing is underway to address a key bottleneck on the Warrego Highway. However, the Newell Highway has not yet been duplicated or improved in the same way as the other major road links in the corridor.
Trucks travel along the Newell Highway for approximately 1060 kilometres (60 per cent) of this primary freight route between Melbourne and Brisbane, which connects the Hume Highway in Victoria with the Warrego Highway in Queensland, via the Gore Highway.
A number of sections of the Newell Highway corridor are currently operating at 55 to 70 per cent of capacity, resulting in restricted speeds, manoeuvrability and unstable flow conditions.71
Under these conditions, minor increases in traffic are expected to result in operational problems, including a restricted selection of desired speed and manoeuvrability and a noticeable decline in the general level of comfort and
convenience relative to roads using a lower proportion of capacity.
Demand is forecast to increase to up to 11 000 vehicles per day by 2031—estimated to increase by 59 to 85 per cent at some major locations and town centres over a 25 year period as illustrated in Table 3.1.
Related to increased volume, anticipated transit times for the full length of the Newell Highway corridor are forecast to increase by 48 per cent from around 26 hours to 38.7 hours by 2055.
71 NSW Government, ‘Draft Newell Highway Corridor Strategy’, pp. 70–7, 2014.
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Table 3.1 Forecast road volumes on the Newell Highway Corridor in 2031 (average all day traffic)
MAJOR LOCATION/TOWN CENTRE 2005 2031 % Increase
Forbes 4597 5100 11%
Trewilga 4490 8319 85%
Parkes 4040 4255 5%
Narromine 4304 6844 59%
Dubbo 4769 6338 59%
Gill Gill Creek Bridge 4686 9368 33%
Source: NSW Government, Draft Newell Highway Corridor Strategy, page 146, 2014.
Road freight contributes to the worsening performance of the Newell Highway as shown in Table 3.1. The percentage of heavy vehicles in rural areas of the Newell Highway corridor in 2011 already ranged from 26 to 52 per cent of total traffic volumes as shown in Table 3.2. On average, rigid and articulated trucks account for around eight per cent of rural highway traffic volumes, while B-doubles account for around five per cent.72 As a comparison, in capital cities and urban areas, road freight volumes of five per cent of traffic can be considered a high freight proportion.73 Other road routes along the corridor are also critical freight routes in the national network. There are currently 3000 heavy vehicle movements on the Warrego Highway per day at Ipswich and approximately 2500 heavy vehicles per day through Toowoomba.74 Heavy vehicle growth on the Pacific Highway has increased by three to five per cent annually between 2001 and 2011.75
Table 3.2 Per cent of heavy vehicle traffic in rural areas of the Newell Highway (2011) 2005–2031 HIGHWAY PLANNING SECTION
(RURAL)
% OF HEAVY