Urban transportation systems are complex entities incorporating many factors (Wang, Lu and Peng, 2008). According to Jörnson (2005), a complex system is usually made up of several interacting elements with non-linear interactions and bifurcation points which may result in a multitude of outcomes and creative and surprising responses (Jörnson, 2005). Any urban transport arrangement can be considered a complex system, and the word 'complex' may be interpreted in different ways, with the complexity (however it is defined) varying from city to city (Jörnson, 2005).
Understanding this complexity has become very important if unexpected outcomes are to be avoided. In Riyadh, the proximal ‘problem’ (or symptom), one that all transport users can observe, is congestion. Congestion has become part of daily life in many areas of Riyadh. This has numerous negative effects, including foregone productivity, reduced quality of life and atmospheric contamination (Farahani et al., 2013). The direct consequences of this for transport users include frequently lengthy delays on the city’s main routes. As discussed above, these factors are symptoms of bigger processes such as population growth, which drives increases in land values, urban migration and urban sprawl. The latter is responsible for changes in the spatial structure of cities (Yang and Lo, 2003). This, in turn, creates transport issues including traffic congestion in the city and rapid growth (Harvey and Clark, 1965).
It is clear that transportation is a highly complex problem. This complexity stems from the evolution of cities from the dense urban fabric of medieval settlements, where most of daily mobility was on foot, into vast modern metropolitan areas with their massive volumes of intraregional traffic. As a worldwide phenomenon, this would not have been
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possible without improving first the railway and later the private automobile. Riyadh represents a particularly rapid case study of precisely this process (see Chapter 2).
Wenger’s Land-use feedback cycle. (2009; Figure 1.3) hints at the structure of this complexity. The model has 14 key factors linked in a circular fashion, each preceding factor serving as an input to the one before. Within the model, there are several important feedback/feed forward loops. For example, transport factors such as ownership, mode choice and travel costs occupy half of the cycle and are reflected in the other half, which include land-use factors such as attractiveness, location decision for investors, construction, location decision for users etc. Accessibility and activities sit at the ‘equator’ or junction of the model and are ‘connector factors’ between the transport and land-use feedback cycles.
Figure 1.3 Transport and land use cycle (M, Wenger, 2009)
Riyadh reflects the transport and land use model well. It is a fast-growing city with a car-dominated transport system that cannot grow further without significant
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disadvantages for the health and well-being of the city. This situation has arisen because of a range of wider issues, some unique to Riyadh and others that are universal. They can be stated as follows:
Key Issue 1: Population growth and finite capacity 1.3.1
There is finite available capacity for growth, particularly in the inner areas of the city, for the expansion of the highway infrastructure to continue to meet mobility expectations an expansion of car use and ownership. This has significant implications for land use and transportation systems. In view of growing car ownership and currently high automobile dependency in Riyadh, maintaining adequate mobility in a reliable, safe and sustainable manner has become a dominant challenge. It is evident that a continuation of the present trends will lead to a serious negative impact in both economic and environmental terms (Farhani, 2013).
According to current trends, by 2030 the resident population will increase to more than 15 million people (ADA, 2015). The ADA recognised that increased population, increased economic activity, increased personal expectations and increased population growth all contribute to increased mobility demands and thus to increases in travel demand. The existing road networks cannot successfully absorb these very significant increases in demand. The main transport corridors into the city are already heavily used at peak periods, and this is incompatible with sustainable economic growth to meet higher mobility expectations for a future urban population of 15 million by 2030 without a significant change in mode use. A robust public transport option is a logical component of the transport planning strategies but not without risk, as outlined in Chapters 4, 6 and 7.
Key Issue 2: Investment in a metro system 1.3.2
The General Speaker of the Ministry of Transport in Saudi Arabia, Abdullah Allohaidan, told Agency France Press AFP - a global news agency based in France - in
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a recent interview that “The rail and bus development — whose construction is changing the face of Riyadh — is the largest such project underway in the Middle East, and I think in the whole world.” (AFP, 2016). He added: ”Three foreign consortia are building the metro, with France’s Alstom, Canada’s Bombardier and Germany’s Siemens among the major participants. The city’s existing public transportation system includes beaten-up minibuses carrying immigrant workers,” (AFP, 2016).
The ADA has undertaken various studies on the city’s developmental needs through the ongoing Metropolitan Development Strategy for Riyadh (MEDSTAR) project.
MEDSTAR addresses Riyadh’s strategic planning needs, and recognises that the success of the expected planning outcomes will depend on having a coherent strategy that supports urban mobility. High quality public transport is an important element of the mobility strategy, one that contributes to maintaining Riyadh’s economic prosperity.
It follows that there is a need to identify a public transport system that’s appropriate for this large, culturally unique city (Al-Dubikhi, 2007). An ambitious metro system has been chosen and is covered in detail within Chapters 4, 6 and 7.
Key Issue 3: Culture and context 1.3.3
Society, demography and culture are all unique in Riyadh, and will continue to play a central role in the development of the city’s transport networks. One defining feature is that women in Saudi Arabia are not permitted to drive (currently), and therefore rely on male relatives, foreign male private drivers and taxis, resulting in large numbers of trips per Saudi household.
In Saudi Arabia, men and women are always segregated (due to Islamic and social norms) on urban buses, and usually travel separately on group transportation services.
Because of this tradition, females expect a door-to-door service which public transport, generally, is ill-equipped to provide (Alfozan, 2011). Culture and context exert a significant influence on other travel habits in Riyadh. Males aged 18 and over (the legal driving age) make considerably more trips than females of a similar age.
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According to Al- Dubikhi (2007), there is a concern over this significant difference despite today's social conditions on female travel, and higher female participation rates in employment and education. The ADA claims that the number of trips made by women may have been under-reported. Al-Dubikhi added: ”Based on the most recent estimates, the ADA states that `Saudi households generate a large number of trips, partially to meet the needs of the female members who are usually reliant on male household drivers,” (Al-Dubikhi, 2007). For cultural and social reasons, women are unlikely to be allowed to drive in Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future, leaving the entire family highly dependent on adult males for travel (Al-Dubikhi, 2007).
This interesting facet of national culture clearly has a significant effect on transport system use and the type of future transport system that will elicit the needed (and hoped for) behavioural change. There is also a prominent demographic aspect to Riyadh’s transport needs. Half of the city's population is under the age of 18, and hence below the legal driving age. In the very near future, they will grow up, and this is likely to result in increasing car numbers. This is yet another demographic issue expected to lead to more daily trips. Underpinning all of these, is a continuing rise in Riyadh’s population generally (Al-Dubikhi, 2007).
Tackling the key issues 1.3.4
There are many ways in which these key issues could be tackled, some of which are more satisfactory than others. It would be possible to adopt a purely transport engineering perspective, but this would be likely to downplay issues of culture and context, focusing instead on the actual infrastructure. Similarly, it would be possible to take a strictly social science approach and concentrate on culture and context, but run the risk of downplaying the challenges of engineering a system to meet these needs.
What is needed, therefore, is an interdisciplinary approach which aims to tackle both aspects. An interdisciplinary approach is highly consistent with the complex human and technical aspects of the problems at hand, and requires that the key issues above should be sit to define the research strategy or ‘themes’ which can provide the necessary
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insights. These strategic, tactical and operational aspects of the research are described in the next section, which deals with the research aims, objectives and specific questions, before proceeding to the research methodology.