Progress towards targets under the EU Climate and Energy Package

Under the EU Climate and Energy Package, green- house gas emissions from the Union are to be reduced by 20% compared with 1990 by 2020. Emissions from installations included in the EU Emissions Trading 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Emissions (Mt CO 2 eq)

Estimated emissions without measures

Historical emissions with measures

Projected emissions with additional measures Projected emissions with measures

Figure 5.4 Estimated emissions without measures and with additional measures, compared with historic and projected emissions with existing measures.

System (EU ETS) are to fall by 21% between 2005 and 2020 for the EU as a whole. Emissions not covered by the trading system are to be reduced in line with the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD, Decision No 406/2009/ EC). For Sweden, this decision means that emissions are to be cut by 17% between 2005 and 2020, in line with a target emissions trajectory (see Table 5.24).

In 2005, emissions from Swedish installations includ- ed in the EU ETS totalled 19.4 Mt CO2 eq. If estimated emissions from additional installations during the second trading period (2008–12) and emissions from domestic aviation are added, emissions within the EU ETS in 2005 can be estimated at 21.8 Mt CO2 eq. In the projection, emission allowance prices of €17 per tonne in 2020 and €38 per tonne in 2030 (at constant 2007 prices) have been assumed. In the models used, these prices – along with other prices and policy in- struments – affect the sectors covered by the EU ETS. With the assumptions made, the projection estimates emissions from EU ETS installations at 23.8 Mt CO2 eq in 2020 and 23.7 Mt CO2 eq in 2030 (EU ETS scope for the third trading period, including aviation emissions).

Sweden’s EU ETS allocation for the period 2008–12 has, to date, been 22.4 Mt CO2 eq per year. A further 0.2 Mt CO2 eq can be allocated for new entrants. The allocation for Swedish installations up to 2020 has yet to be decided. Since emission reductions arising from the trading system may be implemented either in Sweden or in other member states, it is not possible to estimate the system’s effect on Swedish emissions. Progress towards the target can therefore only be as- sessed at the EU level.

Emissions from non-trading sectors (based on the scope of the EU ETS for the third trading period) amounted to 45.5 Mt CO2 eq in 2005 (see Table 5.24). In the ‘with measures’ projection, these emissions are estimated to decrease to 35.4 Mt CO2 eq by 2020. According to this projection, Sweden will comfort- ably meet its ESD target trajectory, with between 1 and 3 Mt CO2 eq per year to spare. The ‘with addition- al measures’ projection includes policy instruments in the transport sector that are estimated to reduce emissions by a further 0.4–0.6 Mt CO2 eq by 2020.

Under EU rules, Sweden can use carbon credits from international projects towards meeting its commit- ment. Annually, credits corresponding to 3% of 2005

emissions may be utilised (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 2013), plus the equivalent of an- other 1% of 2005 emissions for credits meeting special conditions. Per year, this possible use of credits cor- responds to 1.8 Mt CO2 eq. In addition, up to 5% of annual emission allocations (AEAs) can be transferred between member states. Beyond this, Sweden can, in the event of a shortfall, borrow up to 5% of its AEA from the following year. In the event of a surplus, it can carry over the unused part of the year’s AEA to subsequent years.

Under the EU Renewables Directive, the share of renewable energy in Sweden is to increase to 49% by 2020. In the reference scenario, the renewable energy share that year is estimated at 50.6%. In the scenario with higher economic growth, the share is reduced to 50.1%, owing to an increase in energy use. In the scen- ario based on higher fossil fuel prices, the share is the same as in the reference scenario. High prices for fossil fuels favour the use of renewable energy sources and promote greater energy efficiency, keeping energy use in check.

5.10 Progress towards the milestone

target for Sweden’s environmental

quality objective Reduced Climate

Impact

The Swedish milestone target for the environmental quality objective Reduced Climate Impact,3 _{as defined} in the Riksdag’s climate policy decision of June 2009 (Govt. Bill 2008/09:162), calls for emissions from ac- tivities not included in the EU ETS to be reduced by 40%, or around 20 Mt CO2 eq, between 1990 and 2020. One-third of this reduction, or roughly 6.7 Mt CO2 eq, can be achieved by means of investments in emission reductions in other countries.

Preliminary projections indicate that this target will be met. An in-depth evaluation of progress towards it will be undertaken as part of the Checkpoint 2015 ap- praisal of climate policy.

Table 5.24 Historic and projected emissions from non-EU ETS sectors in Sweden and ESD target trajectory for 2013–2020, million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (based on Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 2013 and EU ETS scope for 2013–2020)

2005 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Projection for non-EU ETS emissions

45.5 37.2 35.4

ESD target trajectory (2013–2020)

5.11 References for Chapter 5

Ministry of the Environment (2010). Sweden’s Fifth

National Communication on Climate Change under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Ds 2009:63.

Ministry of the Environment (2013). Report for Sweden

on assessment of projected progress, March 2013. In accordance with article 3.2 under Council Decision No 280/2004/EC on a Mechanism for Monitoring Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions and for Implementing the Kyoto Protocol.

Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2013).

6

Vulnerability assessment, climate change

impacts and adaptation measures

6.1 Introduction

Climate change affects large parts of Swedish society. In its final report (SOU 2007:60), the Swedish Com- mission on Climate and Vulnerability evaluated climate change impacts and adaptation requirements for various sectors. Since then, adaptation efforts in Sweden have been stepped up by various means, such as the assign- ments announced in An Integrated Climate and Energy

Policy (Govt. Bill 2008/09:162). This Bill clarifies the Government’s overall policy for climate change adapta- tion.

In spring 2010, government agencies’ adaptation remits and activities were summarised and presented in a report entitled Climate Adaptation in Sweden: An

Overview (Rydell, Nilsson, Alfredsson & Lind 2010). In autumn 2012 this report was followed up and updated to present the agencies in charge of the respective ac- tivities and whether the latter were ‘current’ or ‘com- pleted’. Where feasible, the activities were presented with the associated documentation (SMHI 2013a).

Responsibility for climate change adaptation is div- ided among several government agencies that, based on their respective sectoral responsibilities, have impor- tant roles to play. Some 30 agencies are working to carry out preventive measures, achieve greater skills and knowledge, and foster better preparedness for dis- ruptions in key societal functions.

In 2012 the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrologi- cal Institute (SMHI) was tasked with establishing a National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adaptation as a hub for knowledge accumulation, development and dissemination to various parts of society. This Centre will, in particular, gather, compile and make available knowledge of climate change adap- tation derived regionally, nationally and internation- ally. Relevant public agencies can assist the proposed Knowledge Centre, as can Sweden’s county adminis-

trative boards (CABs), which are already responsible for regional coordination of climate change adapta- tion issues (Govt. Bill 2011/12:1).

Since 2009, CABs have had a Government remit to coordinate adaptation efforts regionally. In doing so they are assisted by the national agencies. The CABs’ areas of work include nature conservation and environ- mental protection, social care, communications, food inspection, animal welfare and general veterinary issues, agriculture, reindeer husbandry (in the counties of Norrbotten, Västerbotten and Jämtland), fishing, gender equality, the cultural environment, regional development, sustainable planning and housing, civil defence, crisis management in peacetime and rescue services. In all these areas, taking the need for climate change adaptation into account may be relevant.

The role of municipalities comprises several im- portant activities to which climate adaptation is of relevance. Municipal responsibilities include ensuring that there are functioning installations for water, sewer- age, energy and waste; hospitals and care services; and schools and social care facilities. Municipalities also exercise official authority under various legislative instruments, with responsibility for inspection, super- vision and licensing. They are, for example, in charge of environmental protection and nature conservation, and also review and supervision, under the Swedish Environmental Code. Their crisis preparedness and rescue services are key functions for developing risk and vulnerability assessments in climate change adap- tation. The municipalities’ spheres of responsibility include sectorised work planning, but they also bear overall responsibility for examining and approving physical planning: comprehensive and detailed develop- ment plans and building permit applications.