Recommendations for Future Research

The number of incidents utilized in this study is minute compared to the overall amount of HazMat incidents involving flammable-combustible commodities. To generate more concrete findings, it is suggested that a more thorough analysis involving a greater sample of states and incidents be carried out. It may also prove essential for an analysis of incident distributions by distance and a time series analysis for short/long-haul shipments be carried out on a state by state basis.

Because incidents in this study occurred at random locations, data assortment did not differentiate between various origin-incident/destination pairs. Another suggestion is to perform an analysis where the destination of commodity shipment is utilized and controlled for within the analysis. For instance, specific origin-destination nodes which generate high volumes of delivery traffic should be focused on (i.e. California to Texas). This may provide a clearer description of how incidents are occurring relative to distance. In doing so, it can also be understood if incidents are occurring at some arbitrary point within transport or at its final destination.

One final idea is to utilize the months and regions synonymous to incidents in hopes of introducing a seasonal parameter. It may me possible to analyze annual peaks in incidents. This may enable a frequency analysis of incidents by month or seasons. An analysis of this form may result in the calculation of incident probability based on time of year.

5.3 Conclusion

With increasing traffic volumes of HazMats, concerns over the safe transport of HazMats have continued to grow (Madala, 2000). Government and industry alike, see a need

for safety and policy analysis to plan the minimum risk movement of these dangerous substances over the world’s network of highways, railroads, waterways, and other transportation (Madala, 2000). In this study, forecasted time series trends have indicated continuing occurrences of HazMat incidents. There is clearly a need to improve safety measures various aspects of land transport to tackle the growing frequency detected in the occurrence of incidents (Oggero et al., 2006). The findings of this study have given reason in reaffirming the need to better regulate the transportation of HazMats by the trucking industry. Future research within this field could build upon this study with the development of a

density function model which generates incident probability based on length of commodity travel.

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