The next-step recommendations for ODOT for implementing the findings from this report include: • Developing models that can control for external factors, and can demonstrate causality, if
it exists; and identifying and beginning to collect relevant data to support the models • Conducting case studies of Ohio transportation and development projects to understand
the potential for change induced by both transportation and development
• Conducting a subsequent research study similar to this in approximately 8-10 years, after the current and any new BG programs and policies have been in place long enough to identify and measure long-term patterns and impacts, utilizing the developed models and collected data
• Explore ways to advance BG principles through policies, programs and project selection processes to provide the groundwork and basis for continuing study. Areas of exploration could include staff and inter-agency education, incentives for BG planning partnership communities, and collaboration in decisionmaking with other state agencies, MPOs, and local governments in ways that affect land use patterns and transportation benefits.
Model Design and Associated Data Needs
As noted throughout the technical analysis section of this report, many of the relationships discovered are not adequately explained by the data and models available. Collection of data on an ongoing basis, and development of models that control for significant external factors, will be
important to monitoring and understanding trends in the policy-land use-transportation connection in the future. In particular, the following needs are identified:
• Conduct a study to design and recommend models that control for external factors such as total transportation investment; cost, geographic size and shape of MSAs, market and economic factors; land values; external travel demand; and socio-demographic factors such as housing choice factors. In the study, evaluate the most appropriate scale for future study, whether it be MSA, MPO/regional, county, or state, or some combination of these. • As part of the study, identify key data needs, both existing and new, required to feed the
models. Some suggestions include expanding the Ewing data collection to more MSAs across the country; in-depth budget and expenditure per state and per MSA, broadly across the 50 states; budget and expenditure data in Ohio, per MSA/MPO/county and per project, keyed to GIS location; property values, economic and market conditions;
population and socio-demographic data including housing choice and preference; study area shape and size; external vs. local travel demand; change in land use, transportation, budget and economic data over time as transportation projects are completed. Develop a plan for collection of recommended data into the future. Perhaps a collaborative of state DOTs could agree on a set of key data that could be collected across the states in order to provide comparisons.
Case Studies
Develop case studies of individual ODOT-funded transportation projects and their economic, social, and land use impact on surrounding areas; and major land use projects in Ohio and their transportation impacts. These studies could include pre- and post-project analysis of land use characteristics, transportation factors, economic and socio-demographic factors, and costs to communities and state agencies. While it will be difficult to control for the myriad of factors influencing change at the site-specific level, such case studies could contribute valuable
information to the understanding of how transportation and land use interact in Ohio regions. As these case studies would be initiated in the short term, they would rely on existing data and the beginning of collection of new data. Much of the data needed could be collected as part of the transportation project application, prioritization and selection process. Projects identified could be residential, commercial/retail, office, industrial, and/or mixed uses, in both compact and less- dense settings. This would also be an opportunity to evaluate pilot projects which could be implemented to test innovative development approaches. It would also be interesting to conduct additional literature review for evaluations of private investment’s impacts on transportation. Examples of data that could be collected include:
• Population and household change in the census tract affected
• Development characteristics and quantitative information (number and type of units, square feet of commercial/office, rents, vacancy rates) both in the project and in the surrounding area
• Before- and after-project traffic counts, turns and other characteristics in the immediate area
• Census information before and after, utilizing American Community Survey estimates for the census tract, of transportation-related factors such as commute characteristics, car ownership, errand trips, and other travel; and land use factors such as housing size, ownership and quality, rents and values, income, and household expenditures on transportation, goods and services)
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• Cost information for transportation improvements and their maintenance, on the part of agencies at local, regional, and state levels.
• Mode utilization information per household and/or worker, addressing bicycle, pedestrian, transit, and automobile usage
Analysis in the case studies would look at change over time, and attempt to draw conclusions about the possible reasons for that change, with particular attention to areas where transportation influences quality of life and lifestyle, and neighborhood characteristics influence transportation choices.
Long-Term Research
The research conducted for this report compared geographic study areas that were classified into four policy framework tiers. In comparing the “clusters” of impacts identified through the
modeling, the amount of time that BG policies were in effect could make a significant difference in demonstrating transportation impacts and benefits. The study areas showing the greatest
correlations were from Oregon and Washington State where strong BG policies have been in place since the 1990’s. Clearly, BG tools and policies are relatively new, many of them implemented for less than 10 years in metropolitan areas in Ohio and throughout the nation. Most land development patterns evolve over long periods of time. The economic downturn around 2007-8 slowed development in many areas of the U.S. Transportation impacts need to be studied after they have adequate time to demonstrate that they are a result of implementing BG principal, are lasting and not resulting from a short term events or other conditions. Also, unique conditions, (such as local, historic patterns of development), the availability of public transit, and geographic characteristics of a region (such as a river, ocean or mountain constraining
development) need to be factored into any analysis. In depth analysis of this and other factors was beyond the scope of this study. It is therefore recommended that a subsequent research study be conducted in 8-10 years, utilizing additional data and new models, and after Balanced Growth policies have had more time to be implemented. This additional time, combined with the “right” data as recommended above, will provide for a significantly improved quantitative analysis than can be conducted today and more valid and reliable results.
Continue to Advance BG Programs and Policies
In order to conduct a future study to determine quantitatively if BG has transportation benefits, it will be necessary to continue to support and implement BG policies and tools so that policies are in effect and comparative quantitative data can be available. Implementing a variety of BG programs and policies may also allow for a new kind of study in the future that more specifically analyzes and compares various types of BG policies to determine which works best.
The report recognizes that in many ways, through existing policies and collaboration, ODOT currently supports BG policies and is working to advance a BG state-wide agenda. In fact,
ODOT’s decision and actions to solicit and fund this research demonstrates ODOT’s commitment to BG. To support a future study, the following is recommended. See the discussion under Conclusions (5.0) for more detailed descriptions.
It is suggested that ODOT define its specific BG policies and integrate these into existing planning, environmental, and project selection decision making processes including:
• Supporting regional nodal development through local/MPO/ODOT collaboration • Participating in the Balanced Growth Program, particularly providing incentives for BG
programs through existing programs and processes such as TRAC scoring and project prioritization
• Aligning direct ODOT decisions with Balanced Growth principles
• Pursuing staff and inter-agency education and collaboration in order to integrate BG support into daily practices, and to identify relevant areas where support could be provided.
NOTE: No changes from current ODOT practices or policies are being recommended. It is recommended that ODOT define its BG policies to make them easy to identify and compare in future research. This will also permit more focused study in the future evaluating specific ODOT BG programs and policies for specific transportation benefits.