Yes, it really does work and you really can choose how often you want to generate a risk-free profit.
The two types of betting have been included here because they are related directly with the money management and they can have a different impact on your bankroll than the normal bets.
4.4. STAKING PLANS
There are really two parts to a successful betting strategy. The first is to find a successful method of predicting sporting events through the principles of value betting. Without an edge, no betting system will be successful. Where a bettor has achieved one, however, his second task is to plan a staking strategy in order to maximize his profits. Merely increasing the stake size or the odds on a bet with a view to securing a greater return is not, however, the safest way to achieving this goal. The downside to such a basic approach is an increase in
bankruptcy risk. Instead, the bettor must learn to identify, assess and mitigate the perils associated with his betting strategy through effective risk management. What this actually means in practice is a study of staking strategy and money management.
Proper money management may mean different things to different people, but common elements include:
1. the application of a bankroll of known size, set aside for the purposes of betting, which if lost would not be detrimental to everyday living;
2. the identification of a suitable staking plan; 3. the maximization of returns;
4. the reduction and control of bankruptcy risk to acceptable levels.
There exist myriad staking plans, some with very elaborate names, including Martingale, D'Alembert, Oscar's Grind, Steady Drip, Kelly, Rolling Bank and many more. All of them in some way attempt to increase the profits a bettor can win above those achievable from simple
level staking. In the main they are successful, but for many, with an unacceptable increase in risk.
Broadly speaking, a staking strategy is likely to fall into one of 4 different categories: 1. fixed staking;
2. variable staking; 3. percentage staking; and 4. progressive staking.
For fixed, or level, staking, every bet placed is assigned the same stake size, regardless of the betting odds. Level staking forms the benchmark staking strategy against which all others should be compared for profitability and risk evaluation. Many bettors see weaknesses with level staking and prefer to vary the size of their bets according to various criteria, including their strength and their odds. A bettor, for example, may choose to standardize the amount he wins for every successful bet. Where all the odds are the same, this will amount to level staking. Where the odds differ, the stake sizes will vary. This strategy might suitably be called the fixed profits staking plan.
Percentage (bank) staking, like level staking, standardizes the size of the stake, but as a percentage of the size of the current betting bank at the time the bet is placed, rather than as a fixed number of points proportional to the initial bankroll. Kelly staking, which goes further than simple percentage bank staking by seeking to optimize the stake size according the odds and the edge the bettor has estimated he has over the sportsbook, is a hybrid of percentage and fixed profits staking.
Finally, progressive staking involves increasing or decreasing the stake size after each bet, according to whether it won or lost, with a view to recovering earlier losses or enhancing gains whilst on a winning run. The Martingale and Pyramid staking plans are two examples of loss chasers. There are other, more complex staking progressions, but basically they all share a common goal.
A common misconception amongst less-experienced bettors is that some staking strategies, in particular the progressive staking plans, can turn loss-making systems into profitable ones. This is impossible and represents a misunderstanding of the mathematical principles that underlie such strategies.
The problem, from a statistical perspective, is that to test any staking strategy one needs to have a reasonable number of results with which to work. To examine its exposure to risk, it is not simply good enough to analyze your own betting record, since this just represents one permutation of all possible betting histories due to the inherent randomness or noisiness in the way sporting results sequence themselves. A profitable record cannot, on its own, define the chance its underlying strategy has of failing. Similarly, an unprofitable record is not
necessarily evidence of a flawed betting system, although the bettor will be very tempted to give it up. To circumvent this difficulty, one must resort to a statistical analysis of the staking plan. The best way to achieve this is to simulate it using a computer model.
The most suitable staking strategy for a bettor will depend extensively on his attitude to profit making and risk taking. A short-term gambler may prefer to stake large and risk more in an attempt to make a quick and sizeable profit. Conversely, a long-term fixed odds "investor"
will prefer to employ more a more conservative staking strategy, where staying in the game is more important than making fast money. A bettor who acknowledges and understands the uncertainties inherent in fixed odds sports betting, however, will be better able to choose a strategy best suited to his risk-reward preferences.
Here are a few traps that you should avoid if you want to be net winner at the end of the day. Good money management is what separates the pros from novice bettors. Money
management theories and systems abound but I have yet to see any proof that any of them really work. What you have to know is there are a lot of bad money management strategies to avoid and that is what you will cover below.
Here is the key point you need to understand – poor money management generates more losses for players than bad handicapping. Even the worst bettors seldom lose more than 55% of their picks. The easiest way to explain is to show a few examples. Take a look at the following four scenarios and hopefully you won’t recognize any of these habits as yours. Scenario A – Raising your bet amounts. Alan is a $100 player. He typically plays half a dozen or so games a week and is a dedicated handicapper. The first week he makes 5 wagers of $110 to win $100 and goes 4-1. For the week, he has made a profit of $290 (4 wins of $100 and 1 loss of $110), a great week by any standard. He now thinks his handicapping skills are so sharp that he can beat the house on any week and now raises his plays to $200. In the second week he makes 6 bets of $220 to win $200 and goes 2-4. For the week he has lost $480 (2 wins of $200 and 4 losses of $220). So overall, Alan has lost $190 despite going 6-5 overall (54.5%). If he had simply played $110 on all 11 games he would have made $50 in profit. Raising the size of your plays after a short-term winning period will benefit the House greatly if and when things even out.
Scenario B – Lowering your bet amounts. Bill is also a $100 player but has a slightly smaller bankroll than Alan. He makes 6 plays of $110 and goes 2-4 for a loss of $240 (2 wins of $100 and 4 losses of $110). His bankroll is now too small to be able to play $100 a game so in the second week he only makes 5 plays of $55 to win $50 each. This week he wins 4 of the 5 and makes $145 (4 wins of $50 and 1 loss of $55). He now has the same overall winning record as Alan (6-5) but is down $95 anyway. Lowering the size of your plays after a short- term losing period or not having enough funds to make your plays will also benefit the books when your turn to win comes.
Scenario C – Risking your balance. Charlie likes to take big risks for big rewards. He posts up $110 and risks it all on a single game Saturday night, which he wins. His balance is now $210 and he risks it all on a Sunday 1pm game, which he also wins to bring his balance to just over $400. Feeling lucky, he puts the whole amount on a 4pm game and wins again to get his balance to an incredible $765 (and change) in less than a day. Then, he decides to go for the big win and risks the whole amount again on the Sunday night game, which he loses. Charlie has now lost $110 despite going 3-1. Wagering $110 for each of the four games would have yielded a profit of $190. Remember books have a 50/50 chance of wiping you out when you put all your action on any one game and those odds will catch up with you
eventually.
Scenario D – Chasing your losses. David has a bankroll of $1000. He wagers $110 on a game and loses. He is frustrated at losing the money and wants to win it back so he wagers $121 (to win $110) on a second game and loses as well. He is now down $231 and is really
frustrated. Thinking he can’t lose 3 in a row, he wagers $254.10 (to win $231) and loses yet again. He has now lost $485.10 and even a win with his remaining balance of $514.90 won’t get him back to even but he puts it all in play on another game hoping to get it close (it would be a win of $468.09). He loses the fourth game and has busted out. Losing streaks will happen to every player every year no matter how good they are and players that chase losses will not last for long.
Many books/sites that discuss money management will tell you to only wager 2-5% of your bankroll on any one play. I cannot say what the magic number is and I certainly do not have any magic formulas for picking winners or telling you how much to bet. However, it is very clear to me after years and years of watching some players win consistently and others lose consistently that these are the four worst traps to avoid. Keep your bets to reasonable, affordable and consistent amounts and your bankroll will last a long time. Even more importantly, if you can pick more than 52.4% winners, you will come out ahead of the book in the long run and that is the only time frame that matters!
Good money management will not make you a winner, that still has to come from choosing the right teams, but it sure will help your bankroll last. I had a lot of very nice emails from players who took this advice last season. Some said they won money over the course of the season for the first time but most just said it was the first time they had a plan, and that their money lasted way longer last year than in years prior.
5. TRACKING
It is essential that the Bettor keeps a betting record. It is necessary to do this such that the Bettor can determine
• their current betting finances o Is the Bettor suited to gambling? o Is the staking system suitable? • fruitful bet types
o What bet types are producing the best results? o What bet types to avoid?
• inaccurate Analysis & Selection Criteria
o Analysis all bets and note any reasons that may have led to an inaccurate forecast. o Learn from mistakes.
By keeping a betting record the Bettor will gain and fine tune their knowledge of betting. Betting Records for individual Bettors will vary, some producing more detailed records than others.
5.2. CHECK LIST
You have here the following checklist to help you in determining whether to bet, what to bet on, how to bet and where to bet.
Step 1
Analyze Teams and create list of teams of interest. See Team Analysis Section for more details.
Analyze Matches against teams selected, create list of matches of interest. See Match Analysis Section for more details.
Sections of Interest : Team Analysis - Match Analysis or
Analyze Matches and create list of matches of interest. See Match Analysis Section for more details.
Sections of Interest : Team Analysis - Match Analysis Step 2
Analyze Matches in detail checking out details as stated in the Team Analysis Section. Sections of Interest : Team Analysis - Match Analysis
Step 3
Analyze the Odds for the selected outcomes as stated in the Odds Analysis Section. Sections of Interest : Odds Types
Step 4
Determine the Bet Type that is suited to the selected outcomes that adhere to the Bettor's Betting Strategy as described in the Bet Types Section.
Sections of Interest : Bet Types Step 5
Maintain a Betting Record following the principles outlined in the Betting Record Section