The research design combines in-depth analysis of and limited comparison amongst four individual regionalist parties - Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales (PC), the Scottish National Party (SNP), the Südtiroler Volkspartei – South Tyrolean People‟s Party (SVP), and the Lega Nord – Northern League (LN) - distributed in two Western European states, Italy and the UK, with a wider comparative analysis including the 43 most successful regionalist parties in Western Europe. In terms of time frame, the analysis of the four cases covers their entire life span, while the wider comparative analysis covers the post WWII period. The rationale of the design serves the purpose of theory building:
Charles Ragin classifies social and political research as qualitative, comparative or quantitative (Ragin, 1994). The first is characterized by in-depth research on one or few case-studies, the second compares a medium number of cases with considerable loss of information about each case, and the third is characterized by variable oriented, statistical analysis on very high number of cases. Qualitative research is particularly suitable for exploring difference and developing new theories (ibid, p. 51). The in-depth analysis of the four parties aims at understanding the cases in their complexity and to compare and contrast them in order to extract (also inductively) potentially generalizable patterns. First of all, it allows us to explore in detail the environment in which a given party acts, drawing a rather precise picture of the socio-structural, institutional, political and electoral context, as well as over-time changes in that context.
At the same time, the in-depth approach permits us to escape a deterministic inference of ideological adaptation from the simple analysis of the environment. Indeed, it gives the opportunity to shed light on the interplay of different factors and on the role of
In-depth analysis of 4 cases
Hypothesis generation
Hypothesis testing on 43 parties
agency acting not only within, but also upon the environment. It makes it possible to appreciate the historical process, stressing the importance of the timing of events. It provides the opportunity to analyse parties as complex organizations, with their internal politics, generational change, leadership change, etc., thus paying attention to the above mentioned (non formal) theories concerning party ideological change (Panebianco, 1988;
Deschouwer, 1992; Harmel and Janda, 1994). In this respect, the case study approach allows us to orientate the research also towards „understanding motivations‟, rather than simply „explaining causal relations‟ (Della Porta and Keating, 2008, p. 3). It gives the opportunity of investigating decision-makers‟ perception of their environment and, therefore, their motives for taking certain strategic decisions rather than others:
“‟[p]erception‟ is the intermediate variable that has to be placed between objective facts and the reactions of parties” (Deschouwer, 1992, p. 17, quoted in Harmel and Janda, 1994, p. 264). Interviews conducted with politicians of the four parties, as well as their writings and internal party documents represent the best sources for grasping the perception of the decision makers and how such perception affected strategic decisions.
Finally, in-depth analysis of the four parties and comparison between them give the chance to pick up certain aspects of the cases which might prove generalizable within the universe of regionalist parties but to which general theories of party change have so far devoted little attention. Indeed, an important aim of this part of the research is to generate hypotheses, either by the theoretically driven study of cases or, inductively, by the observation of patterns emerging form their comparative analysis. Some of these hypotheses can then be evaluated/tested on a much wider set of cases.
The logic behind the restricted comparison of the four cases and, therefore, behind their selection is to allow a wide exploration of the possible combinations between socio-structural and political/institutional environments, on the one hand, and party ideologies, on the other hand. The two states taken into consideration, Italy and the UK, differ in several respects. Historically, British identity was forged after the creation of the British state, while Italian identity, at least amongst elites, was the driving force for the creation of the Italian state. These different historical routes to
„nation-statehood‟ can still be observed in the predominance of the ius sanguinis in Italy for the attribution of citizenship, as opposed the predominance of the ius soli in the UK.
In addition, Italy is a classic example of policephalic state, with the central and northern part of the country belonging to the medieval „city belt‟ of Europe, while the UK is a classic example of monocephalic states, which emerged in the northern-western
periphery of (medieval) Europe. From a socio-cultural point of view, Italy has been a classic example of mono-religious Catholic (counter-Reformist) state, while the UK is an example of multi-confessional, predominantly protestant state. From a political/institutional point of view, (post WW2) Italy has been a classic example of a parliamentary regime with a rigid constitution, several veto points, proportional representation and multi-partyism. The changes to the voting system in 1993 and in 2005 have significantly affected the dynamics of party competition but have not led to the advent of single-party governments. In contrast, the UK is the classic example of a
„Westminster‟ parliamentary regime, with a flexible constitution, few or no veto points, majoritarian representation and a two-party system. Even in terms of policy, especially in the economic area, the two countries have diverged significantly in the last thirty years, with Italy being amongst the champions of the borrowing and spending approach while the UK led the „neo-liberal revolution‟ in Western Europe. The two states have, until very recently, also been at odds on the question of European integration, in terms of both government and public opinion positions: Italy having been one of the most Europhile states and the UK often taking the lead in opposing further integration.
The four regions taken into consideration also present many differences amongst themselves. Demographically, South Tyrol represents about 1 percent of Italy‟s population, Wales and Scotland represent about 5 and 8 percent of UK‟s population respectively. In contrast, Padania (or Northern Italy) represents more than 50 percent of Italy‟s population. Even if only the two core regions, Lombardy and Veneto, are taken into consideration, they still represent nearly a quarter of the Italian population. In economic terms, South Tyrol produces about 1.2 percent of the national GDP and has a GDP per capita approaching 140 percent of the national average. Lombardy and Veneto produce nearly 30 percent of Italy‟s GDP and their GDP per capita exceeds 125 percent of the national average. In contrast, Wales has always been amongst the poorest regions in the UK reaching down to 70 percent of national average in terms of GDP per capita.
Scotland has traditionally been below the national average too (though not as much as Wales), although in recent years it has reached a level of GDP per capita in line with the national average. In terms of ethno-linguistic distinctiveness, South Tyrol stands out for the presence of the German-speaking minority, which represents a strong majority within the region. South Tyrol also stands out as a contested territory between two states, Italy and Austria, thus representing a case of irredentism. Wales hosts a linguistic minority too: the Welsh-speakers. However, they only represent about a fifth of the
Welsh population. In contrast, ethno-linguistic distinctiveness is negligible in Scotland and Padania. Finally, the institutional history of the four territories is very different.
Wales has never been a united and independent state. In addition it was incorporated within England in the sixteenth century and, as part of England, within the UK in the eighteenth century. In contrast, Scotland was a united and independent state until 1707, when it joined England to form the UK, and retained some institutional peculiarities within the union. South Tyrol was for centuries part of Austria, within which it maintained a degree of self-government, before it was annexed by Italy in 1919.
Padania has never existed as a united and independent state. It has always been fragmented and some of its regions fell, in some periods, under foreign (i.e. non Italic) rule. The two core regions, Lombardy and Veneto, were united under Austrian rule from 1815 to 1859 and 1866 respectively, when they were annexed into the newly formed Italian state. In spite of all these differences amongst the two states and the four regions, the two couples of regions belonging to the same state present some similarities, especially in economic terms. The multiple possible comparisons – cross-regional, cross-national and cross-regional/intra-national – allow, therefore, the opportunity of extrapolating different insights from the analysis of the four cases.
Data concerning this part of the study have been gathered from different sources.
Priority was given to primary sources: party documents, interviews, publications by top party members, opinion polls, election studies and newspapers‟ articles. However, previous academic publications have also been precious sources, especially for analysing less recent periods of parties‟ histories. Party ideology and ideological change was evaluated on the basis of party documents (primarily but not exclusively party manifestos), public speeches of leaders or prominent members, polls and electoral studies, extant literature and interviews. It is worth re-stating that the present study does not rely on formal models of party competition and it is not interested in quantitative measurement of ideological positioning. What is of interest here is discerning ideological repositioning within the party systems these actors are competing in.
Ordinal positions vis à vis their competitors, therefore, are more important than cardinal ones, and qualitative thresholds – such as the distinction between secession and autonomy, between radical and mainstream left (or right), between pro and against further European integration – are sufficient to chart significant party ideological change. Secondary literature and opinion polls have been used to draw a picture of the environments in which these four parties act, both in socio-structural and
institutional/political terms. Interviews, publications by party leaders and top party members, internal party documents and newspaper articles were crucial to grasp the perception of the environment and the logic of the strategic responses adopted by party elites, as well as the dynamics of internal party politics which accompanied such strategic decisions.
The last chapter is devoted to comparative analysis with a higher number of cases for the identification of broad patterns (Ragin, 1994, p. 51). As mentioned before, the generation of hypotheses comes from the comparative analysis of the four cases, while the evaluation/testing is carried out by extending the comparison to 43 parties acting in 26 regions and 7 different Western European states, with the list of cases presented in the last chapter. Suffice here to say that they were selected on the basis of their electoral success. More precisely only regionalist parties – that is to say those parties which fall within the definition provided above (including the few border-line cases) – that have fulfilled the following criteria in the post WWII period have been selected: a) electing representatives to the regional assembly on, at least, three consecutive occasions; b) in the case of new parties that have not contested three regional elections yet, the criterion is either electing representatives on two occasions or getting into office (at regional level) at the first election; c) in the cases where an elected regional assembly does not exist (or did not exist in the past), the criterion is electing representatives to the central parliament. Electoral relevance, as far as the selection of the 43 cases is concerned, is not defined, therefore, in terms of Sartorian relevance in the party system.14 What is of interest here is that the selected parties have been successful enough to be sensitive to the electoral driver of party competition. Indeed, as discussed in the previous section, one of the two logics that are used in order to reach general conclusions is represented by Downs‟ approach, which sees ideology as adapting strategically to the conditions of the electoral environment. This approach obviously entails a strong loss of complexity, which is almost inevitable if generalization has to be achieved.
One problem is represented by the difficulty of gathering quantitative data on the socio-economic and socio-cultural attitudes of the 26 regional electorates. These data do exist but just for some of the regions. In addition, they are dispersed and available in different languages. Therefore, while the collection of this kind of data
14 Sartori‟s definition of relevance rests on the „coalitional‟ or „blackmail‟ potential of parties in the party system, i.e. it strictly related to conditions for government formation (Sartori, 1976, p. 121-24).
should be carried out in the future, possibly as a collective enterprise of country (or region) experts, a different approach has been adopted here. The regions have been classified in terms of their ethnic distinctiveness, institutional history and economic status using secondary sources as well as OECD regional statistics. As specified in the previous section, the link between the macro-characteristics of the regions and the preferences of their electorates lies in the tradition of comparative historical sociology (Lipset and Rokkan, 1967). Case studies on the specific parties, edited collections and comparative studies constitute the main source for discerning the ideological positioning of the 43 parties.
The technique used for hypothesis testing is rather rudimentary, as it consists of a series of cross tabulations accompanied by a discussion of emerging (or non emerging) patterns, as well as a discussion of specific cases either because they fit some patterns particularly well, therefore become „paradigmatic‟, or because of their deviance from such patterns. However, in spite of the rudimentary technique adopted for the comparative analysis, this study reaches interesting conclusions which: a) confirm some of the findings of previous research, b) qualify and refine other previous findings, c) provide a systematization of the state of the art, d) point out new insights and move our theoretical and comparative knowledge of regionalist parties‟ ideological positioning forward.
Chapter 2.
Plaid Cymru – The Party of Wales
Plaid Cymru is an old party, born in the inter-war period. Although from the very beginning it aimed to represent the whole of Wales, thus characterizing itself as a regionalist party, until the early 1960s it was first and foremost an ethnic party, primarily concerned with the protection of the Welsh language and electorally confined to the Welsh speaking areas of Wales. To be sure, the strong link between PC and the use of the Welsh language has never disappeared, as the electoral geography of the party clearly demonstrates. Yet, the establishment of the National Assembly for Wales (NAW) in 1999 has definitely contributed to make PC a truly Wales-wide party.
The early 1960s also marked the start of a permanent and primary focus on electoral politics. It is from that period, therefore, that the party‟s ideological development started to respond to electoral strategies and, hence, to the social and electoral environment of Wales, whereas in the previous period it had mainly depended on the personal convictions of its prominent figures, almost independently of electoral considerations. Since then, especially as far as the left-right dimension is concerned, the party appears to have adopted a „fitter‟ ideological position vis a vis the Welsh environment.
With Wales making up less than 5 percent of the UK population, the core of the party‟s activities is definitely the regional and then, some way behind, the local level.
This is also confirmed by the „dual voting‟ which rewards PC in Welsh elections and penalizes it in general elections. The establishment of the NAW has also introduced the possibility of multi-party or minority governments with consequent governmental agreements amongst parties, thus adding another driver of ideology/policy adaptation.
After the 2007 Welsh elections the party entered office for the first time as a junior partner with Welsh Labour.