Research gaps, aims and thesis structure

Despite that the concept of “freshwater megafauna” has been mentioned in several studies (Mazzotti

et al., 2009; David, 2010; Turvey et al., 2010; Turvey et al., 2012), a synthesis of global freshwater

megafauna is lacking. For example, Turvey et al. (2010) and Cooker et al. (2013) have called for more studies to promote charismatic freshwater megafauna, while David (2010) also emphasized the potential of freshwater megafauna acting as flagship species in his master thesis. However, no follow- up studies have been conducted and several gaps remain to gain a comprehensive understanding of the diversity and risk patterns of freshwater megafauna at global scale. The most prominent gaps are: 1) The definition of freshwater megafauna remains unclear in published literature. Therefore, a clear definition for megafauna in freshwaters followed by a compilation of a comprehensive list of contemporary freshwater megafauna species is still missing. 2) Global distributions of freshwater megafauna are yet to be mapped in high resolution. David (2010) has illustrated species richness of selected freshwater megafauna within each freshwater ecoregion. However, such a resolution (e.g. the whole Yangtze River basin has been divided into three units while the Danube has been divided into two) is not sufficient enough to support spatial prioritization of conservation management, which is often conducted in small catchment units (Linke et al., 2007; Hermoso et al., 2011). 3) The type, intensity and location of human pressure on freshwater megafauna are largely unknown, which could hamper identifying the areas of potential conflicts between freshwater megafauna diversity and human activities and prioritizing areas in need of conservation. 4) Although population decline and range contraction for individual freshwater megafauna species have been reported (Pikitch et al., 2005; Hogan, 2011), a synthesis of changes in population abundance and distribution ranges of freshwater megafauna species at large scales (e.g. continental and global scales) is missing. Such research is important to inform the decision makers and the public about the dire situation of the world’s largest freshwater animals, as well as the overall condition of global freshwater ecosystems. 5) Large freshwater animals have been suggested being particularly vulnerable to extinction due to their slow life-history strategies and high level of exploitation pressure (Olden et al., 2007). The relationships between extinction risk of freshwater megafauna and their life-history traits, and the impact of human threats on such relationships remain unexplored. Understanding such relationships can enable us to

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identify species with high vulnerability to extinction, which is particularly needed for freshwater megafauna, as many of them have not been classified on the IUCN Red List.

This thesis aims to gain a comprehensive picture of the global freshwater megafauna, with emphasis on their distribution, conservation status, main threats, population changes and extinction risks (Fig. 1.5). To achieve the aim, the first step was to define and identify freshwater megafauna species. The threshold of 30 kg was chosen to include most of the large freshwater animals with the potential of acting as flagship or umbrellas species. Based on this definition, I compiled a list of 207 extant freshwater megafauna species. The data on freshwater megafauna are scattered over the literature. I collated the data and established a freshwater-megafauna database containing information on their distribution, life-history traits, population change, conservation status and intensity of human threats within their distribution range.

Fig. 1.5 Conceptual overview of linkages between chapters. Note that the spatial congruence between freshwater megafauna diversity and human pressures in the past has not been explored as it is difficult to find a historical time point when data on megafauna distribution and human pressures are both available.

Five research questions are embedded within this thesis: 1) Where are regions of freshwater

megafauna diversity hotspots? 2) Where are regions of potential conflict between human activities and freshwater megafauna diversity? 3) What are the main threats to freshwater megafauna? 4) How did populations of global freshwater megafauna change over the last four decades? 5) Which factors predispose freshwater megafauna to extinction?

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Chapter 2 aims to answer the first and the second research questions. In this chapter, I

collated distribution data of each freshwater megafauna species and then converted the information into HydroBASINS level 8 sub-catchments, in which global freshwater catchments are divided into 228,465 individual sub-catchments (Lehner & Grill, 2013). Global distributions of overall freshwater megafauna, threatened species, and species with different population trends (i.e. increasing and stable, decreasing, and unknown) were shown. Diversity hotspots of overall freshwater megafauna and threatened freshwater megafauna were also identified. Considering the fact that freshwater megafauna require complex habitats and often are top predators, I hypothesize that diversity hotspots of freshwater megafauna would largely overlap with diversity hotspots of overall freshwater species. In addition, I demonstrated the spatial congruence between freshwater megafauna diversity and human pressures. Moreover, I calculated temporal changes in human pressure from 1990 to 2010 within the distribution ranges of freshwater megafauna.

Chapter 3 focuses on the third research question. I did a comprehensive literature review

on the threats to freshwater megafauna and categorized these threats into five groups. The impacts of these threats on freshwater megafauna were summarized and demonstrated with examples from different taxonomic groups and geographical regions. In addition, I compared the identified main threats to freshwater megafauna and to overall freshwater biodiversity summarized as by Dudgeon et

al. (2006).

Chapter 4 explores the fourth question. I did an intensive search on time series data of

freshwater megafauna populations in published literature, reports and online databases. Following the Living Planet Report, chain methods and general additive models were used to track the population change of global freshwater megafauna from 1970 to 2012. According to ecological theories, freshwater megafauna are characterized with extinction-prone traits such as large body size, long lifespan and late maturity (McKinney, 1997; Hutchings et al., 2012). Therefore, I hypothesize that freshwater megafauna have declined more than their smaller counterparts. Population trends of freshwater megafauna in different biogeographic regions and taxonomic groups were also calculated. In addition, I collated historical (around the year 1500) and current distribution information for all freshwater megafauna species in Europe and the USA. The change in distribution ranges of each

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species was calculated. Moreover, maps of historical and current distributions in Europe and the USA were shown.

Chapter 5 focuses on the last research question. In this chapter, I collated twelve life-

history traits for each freshwater megafauna species from published literature and calculated the intensity of human pressure within each freshwater megafauna species’ distribution range. Then I used a generalized linear mixed model to explore the relationship between conservation status of freshwater megafauna and the combined effect of life history traits. In addition, the influence of human threats on such relationship was also examined. The best models were selected based on the Akaike information criterion. Conservation status of 49 species that were not assessed by the IUCN Red List were predicted with the selected models. In addition, the global distribution map of threatened freshwater megafauna was plotted based on both IUCN Red List assessments and model predictions and then compared with the one based only on the IUCN Red List assessments, which allowed identification of neglected diversity hotspots of threatened freshwater megafauna.

In Chapter 6, I summarize the key findings of the previous chapters and placed the results of the thesis in a broader context. Then I discuss their potential implications in conservation for freshwater megafauna and identified future challenges and opportunities for freshwater megafauna conservation. In addition, I discuss the potential ecological consequences of megafauna loss in freshwaters. Moreover, I demonstrate the potential of megafauna-based strategies in advancing conservation for overall freshwater biodiversity. Finally, I explore the potential to use freshwater megafauna to emphasize the gaps and problems in freshwater conservations and strengthen links between the general public and freshwater life.