Effective adaptation requires awareness of the risks posed by climate change and an understanding of the relative significance of those risks. To develop strategies to manage climate change risks and increase resilience, it is essential to gain a good understanding of those risks, their potential impacts, and the relative significance of those risks.
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Climate Risks
Risk is generally defined as a combination of the likelihood of an occurrence, and the consequences of that occurrence. It is important to note that uncertainties exist with likelihood and consequences, and in the context of climate change risk assessment these uncertainties arise from the fact that although there is a high level of confidence that the climate is changing, the magnitude of the changes and associated impacts are not precisely known (DCC, 2006). Climate change impacts are expected to hit hard the communities and infrastructure which are vulnerable to the extreme events that the changing climates will bring. Vulnerability is defined as the lack of capacity to cope with the changes i.e. vulnerability is opposite of adaptive capacity. This suggests that a an increasing adaptive capacity will reduce vulnerability and vice versa (IPCC, 2014b). According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, vulnerability to climate change is a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007d). Adaptation can reduce sensitivity to climate change while mitigation can reduce the exposure to climate change, including its rate and extent. Exposure and sensitivity have been explained later in this chapter in the Adaptive Capacity section. The recently published Fifth Assessment Report (FAR) provides updated information about likely impacts and perceived risks from the changing climate. These include the following (IPCC, 2014a):
• Freshwater resources: Climate change will reduce renewable surface water and
ground water resources significantly in most dry tropical regions, exacerbating competition for water among sectors;
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• Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems: A large fraction of terrestrial and
freshwater species face increased extinction risk under projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century, especially as climate change interacts with other pressures, such as habitat modification, over-exploitation, pollution, and invasive species;
• Coastal systems and low-lying areas: By 2100, due to climate change and
development patterns and without adaptation, hundreds of millions of people will be affected by coastal flooding and displaced due to land loss;
• Marine systems: Progressive redistribution of species and the reduction in
marine biodiversity in sensitive regions and habitats puts the sustained provision of fisheries productivity and other ecosystem services at risk. Ocean acidification poses risks to ecosystems, especially polar ecosystems and coral reefs, associated with impacts on the physiology, behaviour, and population dynamics of individual species;
• Food production systems and food security: An increase in local temperature of
10C or more above preindustrial levels is projected to negatively impact yields
for the major crops (wheat, rice and maize) in tropical and temperate regions, although some locations may benefit;
• Urban areas: Rising sea levels and storm surges, heat stress, extreme
precipitation, inland and coastal flooding, drought and water scarcity, and air pollution pose widespread negative risks for people, health, livelihoods, assets, local and national economies, and ecosystems.
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• Rural areas: Major future rural impacts will be felt in the near-term and beyond
through impacts on water supply, food security, and agricultural incomes, including shifts in production of food and non-food crops in many areas in the world;
• Key economic sectors and services: Climate change may influence the integrity
and reliability of pipelines and electricity grids. Climate change will also affect tourism resorts, particularly ski resorts, beach resorts, and nature resorts and tourists may spend their holidays at higher altitudes and latitudes; and
• Human Health: climate change will impact human health mainly by
exacerbating health problems that already exist and climate change throughout the 21st century will lead to increases in ill-health in many regions, as compared to a baseline without climate change.
Climate resilience
Climate resilience is defined by the IPCC as “the capacity of a social-ecological system to cope with a hazardous event or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain its essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation” (IPCC, 2014a). The resilience to
climate variability can be of multi-faced, operations of local government generally fall under urban resilience. Urban resilience generally refers to the ability of a City of Urban system to withstand a wide array of shocks and stresses, and can be categorised into key four areas – (i) urban ecological resilience; (ii) urban hazards and disaster risk
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reduction; (iii) resilience of urban and regional economies; and (iv) promotion of resilience through urban governance and institutions (Leichenko, 2011).
Climate change risk assessments are usually undertaken using a prescribed framework often developed by the Government or affiliated agencies. Although there are many frameworks available, and even multiple frameworks exist within a country, the key steps of the risk assessment process are similar. Risk assessment may involve quantitative or qualitative analyses or a combination of these. It may also include the information to describe the nature of risks. Qualitative techniques are particularly useful for climate change where there is a high level of uncertainty around likelihood and consequences. While Climate Change Risk Assessment and development of Adaptation Plans are not within the scope of this research, and so have not been covered, a brief description of this process is given below to gain an understanding of the adaptation capacity that would be required to address climate change risks.
The Australian Government provides a framework to inform businesses and government agencies about a systematic approach to assess risks posed by climate change (DCC, 2006), which has been the only framework to date from the Australian Government. The framework is also designed to help with the development of an adaptation plan to address risks posed by the changing climate. Figure 2.1 presents the steps involved in this risk assessment process and a summary of this process is provided below:
• Establish the context: The first step of the risk assessment process is to establish
Fi So and i asses stakeh • Ident partic will h Brain provi issues analy igure 2.1: K ource: DCC includes det sment pro holders, and
ify the risk
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Key steps o C (2006) termining c ocess, defin d establishin ks: This is u stakeholder mpact on sa provides the utions to spa le in the wo ll screen out of the clim 34 climate cha ning the ng the evalu usually don rs. A risk is atisfactorily e participant ark ideas fo orkshop, ev t unimporta ate change ange scenari scope of uation fram ne by brain s the chance achieving ts with an o or others. It ven if they p ant ones. risk assess
ios that are the assess ework. nstorming w e of someth the organis opportunity t is necessar prove to be sment and a e to be use sment, ide workshops w hing happen sation’s obj to raise iss ry to raise a trivial late adaptation d in the entifying with the ning that jectives. sues and as many r, as the process;
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• Analyse risks: The analysis stage assigns each risk a priority in the context of
each of the climate change scenarios being considered. It takes account of any existing factors that are likely to control the risks such as the ability of people to adapt to the changing climate or other trends that will modify the effects of the risks. For example, existing controls on degradation of infrastructure can include routine monitoring and repair systems, inherent robustness in the design and construction, and the existence of alternatives that can be used if the main infrastructure system fails.
• Evaluate risks: Evaluation of risks ensures that the priority ratings are consistent
with one another and reflect the participants’ general view of the context within which they are operating. The risks that have been identified and prioritised in the earlier stages will need to be reviewed in terms of their priority and adjusted if felt appropriate by the participants. The final list of risks thus will have all the information recorded in the identification and analysis stages as well as the agreed priority allocated in the evaluation process.
• Treat the risks: The risk treatment process determines the most cost effective
actions to be implemented in response to the risks identified. This sometime will require modification of existing strategies or plans, development of new plans, and allocation of resources and responsibilities. Treatment of risks arising from climate change can include technological and infrastructure measures, planning, research and education or a combination of these. One example of risk treatment could be ‘avoidance of risk’, which may include growing new crops to avoid
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risks of food shortage, migrating people away from high risk areas, changing the location of new housing developments, etc.
It is essential that extensive communication and consultation is undertaken throughout this risk management process, because, it is crucial to achieve a high level of creative input from the participants by involving all relevant parties and giving them a role to play to identify, assess and manage climate change risks. Another key success component of the risk management process is to review the output of the process regularly and to update it as new information becomes available or circumstances change. The monitoring and review process can include, for example, updating climate change scenarios and updating the progress of implementation of treatment actions. While risk-based adaptation is widely used in Australia, there are limitations to this approach. These limitations are due to (a) the uncertainties, complexities and interaction in estimation of future risks and costs, (b) problems of fully valuing costs and benefits, and (c) questions of how costs, impacts, and risk are distributed across society (Hall et al., 2012). In addition to the risk-based adaptation discussed above, there are also other approaches to adaptation, these include:
• Human rights-Based approach: A human rights-based approach is a conceptual
framework that takes into account the international human rights standards for promoting and protecting human rights. In terms of climate change, a human rights-based approach can be used to guide policies and measures of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) suggests that the human rights-based approach to climate
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change should consider how the types and extent of anticipated changes in climate will impact economic and social development at relevant levels, including poverty reduction, strengthening human rights and improving human health and well-being (Girot et al., 2014; UNHR, 2014).
• Ecosystem-Based approach: Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EBA) refers to the
use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help people and communities adapt to the adverse effects of climate change at local, national, regional and global levels. (UNEP, 2014; Uy and Shaw, 2012). EBA recognises that healthy, well-functioning ecosystems enhance resilience to the negative impacts of climate change and reduce the vulnerability of people.
• Community-Based approach: Community-Based Adaptation (CBA) functions at
the local level and involves the communities that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This approach identifies, assists, and implements community-based development activities that strengthen the capacity of local people to adapt to the impacts of changing climate. CBA generates adaptation strategies through participatory processes, which involve local stakeholders and development and disaster risk–reduction practitioners (Ayers and Forsyth, 2009).