Regarding RPOWER
What you are trying to do here is very effective. And amazingly this works with very good accuracy. However, ask yourself thi s: What does market tell you when correction bars are increasing? Can you tell me what this means? If you can't find the answer, let me know.
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Sir I think all depend on experience of traders and his pocket size
But I saw most of people when in loss stay in trade in hope and when in profit they are in a haste to book instead of trailin g and I am one of them too . ...
When the number of correction candles increase, it does not always signify bears gaining control. In this case, even though t he number of bearish candles are increasing, the stock is undergoing mere consolidation. The correct way to interpret this is that the "Cycle or the waiting p eriod of the stock is increasing". This means, anyone now wishing to buy this stock, should be prepared for a little bit more holding time than the situation was on the previous minor cycle. Hope this helps.
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Another way is to look at the chart in a Weekly TF too ....
Price has taken resistance at 178 where some amount of supply has come in BUT follow -up supply vols are not there .. that means either the super vols in the push-up bar of breaking the resistance of 163 has liquidated somewhat .. and the stock may test 163 again once and then bounce bac k ....
But surely it is not in a downtrend as of now ....
Also the 163 levels were a horizontal trading range for many days and has been broken. Target for the same is 163+(163 -136)=190 odd levels ...
If you see previous recent high, it is 210 BUT the body of the candle is from 194 which matches with the horizontal breakout target.
Just a matter of time and patience imo .... and those are two of the few things required in abundance for a trader/investor t o get better of the market ...
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---I have been building up positions in Adani from 530 levels. Hence for swing perspective, ---I had a 40 point profit on average. ---I purely exited based on this. ---It may well go up and had it been for Investment purpose I would have held on to the stock. But for Swing trades I always have s ome % profit booking zone and Adani reached those zones. Moreover, I found Lupin on friday, and hence had built up huge futures positions in it. Was up by 4% today, so that kind of also begins to enter my profit zone.
So if you want a one line answer, here it is. "I prefer to buy at weakness and sell at strength". This is applicable to swing trades only.
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What are we keeping as stop loss for Glaxo? My analysis as mentioned below kindly correct me if I m going wrong...
1> It is hovering at 20 and 50 EMAs and seems to be making base here...
2> Strong divergence from the perspective of RSI (9)
3> Contraction on 8 DMI from higher negative index getting contracted towards positive index - my interpretation is bulls loosing dominance...
4> ADX (8) coming down towards no trend strength zone from bear strength..
5> Combined interpretation of ADX and DMI - seems bear trend strength getting reduced and bulls are trying to get control and displayed as contraction of DMI...
In my opinion stop loss should be little lower than 2000. Kindly evaluate my analysis and correct me.?
Nice piece of work. Frankly, I did not see so many things are in favor of this stock. I am more the "Feel" kind of player. If I "Feel" it is good, I just go for it.
The stock is relatively weak and hence I am buying it. I'll sell it when it shows strength. Regarding stop losses, my rules a re little different than what book teaches. I don't kind of look at previous swing lows that often. I monitor the prices continuously and from that I get a feel of whether the prices are going to slide or going to take support.
If you are talking from text book perspective, then I do feel the SL set by you is appropriate. On the whole Divergence part and ADX part mentioned by you does bring some value.
---As on 27th JUL, 2010 I see that in the cash segment both FII and DII has turned -ve (22 and 222.28 Cr) respectively. In spite of that the indices were up today. For almost the last 30 days FII were +ve(most days) and DIIs consistently negative. From todays figures can we infer t hat the domestic retail segment is taking on the strength of the financial institutions? Because we can all see that there is no correction worth its name co ming though everyone has been predicting the same since a pretty long time.
In case you find my query to be not relevant kindly ignore it.
PS : Was thrilled at the timing of the lupin call, but could not muster the courage to get in at these levels. I am sure that is I follow the thread we will have a plenty of such successful calls coming from you.
FII and DII data is a bit difficult to relate with overall market situation. It works well in market extreme. But usually it does not work well in between. Hence what you can do is use the data as one of the indicators to tell you what exactly is happening. On standalone basis the accur acy of this indicator is no good than other indicators available.
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Now that the fundamentals for the company has improved, the main negativity out of the way, what is the target for the compan y, and does it qualify for a bullish/ swing trade.
I have gone long on the stock, today, at 885 aug fut 2 lots, added 1 lot at 900. what do you recommend that I should do.?
I don't know how you pick a stock for swing trades. But for me, fundamentals don't form a part of swing trades. However, if t his is the way you do it and are successful at it, then do not change your method.
As far as technicals are concerned, if markets remain healthy, ABAN should see levels of 925 and 948 for swing perspective. O n very shorter time frame, the stock can also undergo consolidation. Hence, be patient.
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Today and tomorrow are extremely crucial days for the Index. For shorter term, we would know whether we are going to go highe r or on the way down. The bias as of now remains on the long side in shorter time frame. ...29.07.10
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Noticed these days ...
LT was down before results were declared. After results ... bcoz they were not as per expectations .. more down ...
Mkt was down bcoz of expectations of tougher stance on credit policy etc. Since they were good .. markets rallied back ....
So maybe today they are down in expectation of bad gdp of the US and if its better than expected we move back up else we stay (no more downs) as it is already factored in ...
Just thinking aloud .. not necessary though ...
Options OI is showing bottom at 5300 though that can change in an hours time . ...
Following stocks should do well in short term.
Risk : Reward
05 July 2015 02:20 PM
Following stocks should do well in short term.
The one highlighted in Bold have their respective futures in the derivative market. Rest are some mid/small cap companies whi ch are looking reasonably good.
Let's see how these work. ...2.8.10
Statistical probability and practical application of probability are two completely different things. You need to understand this before you can understand what i write in future.
--- ---I understand this is your scalped call & you squared it off as soon as you get profit.
Just wanted to know what if you would have hold it with stop loss(say5400) for day & waited till day end. OR you was of opini on that there will not be much upside for the day.
Just want to understand your logic while closing this trade.
Whenever I trade, I trade with multiple sub divided accounts. I have divided my assets into three categories. Medium term tra der/Investor, Swing trader and Scalper. So when I scalp 33 points, I am essentially doing it through Scalping section of my assets. It is quite possible tha t on same asset I am long in medium time frame.
Regarding waiting to square off. My scalping targets are 30 -40 points on Nifty and 60-80 points on Bnifty. Whenever I get it, I just get out. The sooner the better.
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All I can say is that go through this thread. You will find plenty of things that work. In some places, I have actually poste d charts and have explained why they are a good buy. Most of the things mentioned here cannot be back tested as there is a lot of "relative analysis" involved. I am not entirely in favor of too many mechanical systems. Human mind cannot be replaced by some "Ghz processor". Although, you will require to train your mind to l ook for set -ups. With practice, it will come. Be patient.
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I can help you. But you have to do the hard work.
Don't expect some system/software to generate Buy/Sell for you everyday. Had it been so simple, then all the fund managers wo uld have done the same.
Face the reality rather than living in hopes.
If you want to learn, I can help. If you want some system, I can't.
Here's what you can do.
1. Change your attitude !!! Markets pay you to make decisions which are tough, but correct. Market's don't know who Karan Is. Hence, stop being afraid and be prepared to work hard.
2. Read these two books. Master the trade by John Carter and Trading in the zone by Michael Douglas. In the first book you wi ll find many strategies that really work. You will need to master any one of them. But you will have to MASTER it. Second book will get you to think posit ively and it will help you a lot psychologically.
There's no System which can do the hard work which you have to do. I am sorry if this disappoints you. But this is the most I can help you with. I dont sell systems neither do I give tips. I believe in analysis and that is the path I can show you. I'll definitely help you if you ha ve doubts when you read those books or for the matter any book you find resourceful. But beyond that, I cant do much and that is an honest reply.
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In my opinion, trading system is something which suites and fits individual... something like straight fit jeans fits me bett er and boot cut does not... it could be otherway round in your case...
I wud suggest from my limited knowledge and experience that build your own trading system or pick one and alter it according to your trading style.... i believe in this... "Read, Read and read a lot... then experiment and then u will automatically know what is ur trading system .."
If you can find, try to read Thomas DeMark methodologies, ADXcellence by Dr. Charles B. Schaap and RSI by John Hayden... Most ly these will solve dillema of your life...
Those highlighted in Bold are my favorites. Let's see how these do...2.8.10 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
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That may be the case blackberry. Accumulation stage is not important. It is the mark up phase after the accumulation phase wh ich holds importance. We have to see when that begins.
Mark up is the phase we should concentrate.
As it is said that practical experience is better than theories, I would like to share my experience on similar note...
I m holding Aloktext since long bought at 18.50 or so with the consideration of accumulation and then sharp shoot out... Thou gh it gave break out but again went into consolidation... Undoubtedly I am sitting on lil more than 10% profit which is not bad at all if ur holding period is less than 3 months...
So what I am trying make point is sometimes, accumulation phase gets stretched and we may get frustrated... in today's world sometimes, accumulation phase is suddenly changed to distribution.
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Begin to tighten your stop losses. Protect your trading profits in whatever positions you hold...this is key.
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Markup phase buying and Euphoria based buying are two different things. Identification of each is extremely important for pro fitability.
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Keep a SL of 5575 - 5600 in mind. I doubt we will reach 5600 levels. But then, I have been proven wrong so many times that it makes me feel reall y old at times. This is where Risk management comes into the foray.
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Regarding setups, its better if you concentrate on positional setups first. Swing trading is something you can learn later. I t is not easy to pick up swing trading.
Hence once you become proficient in positional trading, you can start specializing in swing trading. I'll certainly help you with anything. Keep posting your charts and your trades and I'll take you through.
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---When we measure correlation with an underlying asset, the period of standard deviation of results has to be such that error i s minimized. This means that although day to day correlation between assets may not hold any value (as highlighted by SM), but long term correlation alway s holds very important information. This in fact is the correct way to analyze what is happening across the globe. Once we start reducing our time f rame (that is, shift to day to day analysis) we are attracting more and more random noise in our decision making. Which for instance is any trader's worst night mare.
To be a Trader-20yrs Page 188
analysis) we are attracting more and more random noise in our decision making. Which for instance is any trader's worst night mare.
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In the same line, I try to do my analysis of bigger picture of our market based on our chart. Market follow simple thing most of the time (except certain big changes) and it always repeats itself someway or other. We do not really need to see Dow for this.
But I too do some inter market relationship analysis. Sometime trading decisions affect this as well. It is always a complex relation, look at how many question we have to answer, before we can decide what we are going react in current day trading and on the next day (most of us are in terested in these two).
1. If EU has fallen 1% in bullish market, can it bounce and trigger short covering in out market while trading?
2. If EU is negative now, can it be up tomorrow and make a bullish trigger tomorrow. Is it making shorters nervous today?
3. Dow has corrected yesterday, can it go up today?
4. Most Asia have closed down today, can those be up tomorrow?
Its a bit complex I think. Better, we look at our chart and get clue most of the time. Though, some cases, global markets do change the path of our market.
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! What I really want to talk about today is to contrast something "context" free versus viewing something contextually.
The market is a two way auction process Allocates bids and offers in an extremely fair and efficient manner(supply and demand ) Searches out and reveals market-generated information. If you will begin to think of markets as an auction process you will begin to understand that if highe r prices are attracting more bids the odds are, that the auction will continue higher.
If higher pirces are cutting off a number of bids, the auction is ending and risk of maintaining long positions has increased substantially.
Of course, just the opposite would be true: if offers were taking the market lower. The results of the auction are what we re fer to as market generated information. The three components of the auction are time, price and volume.
- Price advertises all opportunities
- Time regulates all opportunities i./e., if it is a good deal, it shuold not be there very long - And volume measures the success or failure of the advertised opportunities
What is important to realize is that the The Market Profile is a real -time evolving database that capture sand records the market‟s two -way auctions (content of slide you see) or, as we say, it allows you to view the market in the present tense
Phil Jackson said when he was managing the Bulls, Winning results from operating in the Present Tense, not rehashing yesterda y's game or playing tomorrow's game too early.
--- ---We can take some questions for Jim.
Freddy [17:06:41]> Hi Jim, am your biggest fan and have been using the profile for more than a year now - your trading concepts are terrific - one of my biggest challenge as a trader is to correctly anticipate - to the extent humanly possible (!) (and thus have CONFIDENCE in) the TYPE of day (and when there are changes in conditions invalidating such analysis) - breakouts from low volatility, failed auctions or gaps are typical clues for possible trend days, and neutral internals (breadth / volume) and no strong money flow clues for neutral days - any of your own tips you could share on that?
Also, if you don't mind , I'd like to hear you on how you use stops (on neutral and trend days) and how do you take into acco unt the risk/reward ratio (and as well leverage) for your trades, any minimum RR you are looking for, any particular situation where you use more leverage, etc . thx Jim ! You rock
FReddy: the first thing I look for is to see if we are opening above value , within value, or below value
I look to see how much confidence there is around the opening For those who have read Markets in Profile you are aware that w e describe 4 types of openings:
- Ranging from very high confidence, to very low confidence.
- Trend days, seldom occur, following an opening that takes place in the center of the previous days value.
- An upside trend day, for example, more often occurs when the market has opened above value for the previous day, combined wit h a high confidence opening OR
- When the market has opened below the previous days value area and particularly below the previous days lowest price and shows a high confidence opening to the upside (in the case of a long)
Once the trade is entered, it then becomes important to monitor the trade for continuation. By this I mean, the profile shoul d remain elongated with the point of control that steadily migrates higher throughout the day Additionally, I would expect to see the market "one time fr aming" By one time framing, if the market is trading higher, I mean that the second bar or period, does not take out the low of the first bar but does ta ke out the high of the first bar (30 minute charts) With this process continuing throughout the day An inside bar, where price remains totally within the bar from the previous period,
Once the trade is entered, it then becomes important to monitor the trade for continuation. By this I mean, the profile shoul d remain elongated with the point of control that steadily migrates higher throughout the day Additionally, I would expect to see the market "one time fr aming" By one time framing, if the market is trading higher, I mean that the second bar or period, does not take out the low of the first bar but does ta ke out the high of the first bar (30 minute charts) With this process continuing throughout the day An inside bar, where price remains totally within the bar from the previous period,