profitable snowing opportunity, we might also have a positive expectation by playing the hand out in a straight-forward manner. Therefore, we should only choose to snow if it is probable that the bluffing line has a higher expected value than any other course of action that we could take.”
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CARDPLAYER.COM 3131 than any other course of action that we could take.
If we have a weak hand where calling and drawing is probably a losing play, then we only need to consider whether or not a potential snow has a positive expectation. In this case, we only need to consider how likely our opponent will make a hand with which he will call, compared with the bets that we are risking. Blockers always play a role in how often your opponent will make a hand, but the most important factor to consider is always your opponent and with what range of holdings they will probably look you up with on the end.
If we have the proper odds to call and draw, it is often a mistake to snow any draw that has the ability to build strong hands. For example, we shouldn’t consider turning a hand such as 2-2-2-3-7 into a bluff simply because we have seen many deuces. If there are two or three draws left to go, this hand has too much potential to make a premium holding.
A much better candidate to snow would be a holding such as 3-7-8-X-X, where we may have seen two pair or trips of a particular rank.
With rough one-card draws we can target late position raisers where the usual plan is to see if we make a hand on the fi rst draw, and failing that, initiate a Gentlemen’s Snow.
However, we should never get into a mindset where we would draw once and then automatically stay pat no matter what card we catch.
For example, suppose we begin with 4-6-7-8-X and catch a queen on the fi rst draw. Snowing a queen low is awkward and sub optimal, especially if our opponent has a somewhat common snow catching strategy of keeping us honest when-ever he makes a jack or better low. If that is indeed the case,
our bluff will virtually never get him off a better hand at showdown.
Having seen pairs increases the odds of success and also serves as an eff ective randomizer to prevent us from snow-ing at too great of a frequency. Whenever we start out with a good two-card draw with pairs such as 2-3-3-8-8 we are initially going to try and make a hand, however, that plan can change as the hand progresses. For example, if we never improve but continue to pair, we can possibly turn our hand into a snow if our opponent is not already pat.
On a fi nal note, it is very important to not overuse these plays as it’s not that hard to defend against an opponent who has fallen in love with snowing. Someone can simply draw to their hand and when missing is getting very good odds on the end to just throw one more bet into the pot and see what you have. However, if we only snow our worst draws, eff ectively use blockers as randomizers, and overall choose our spots wisely all of this will tend to take care of itself and we will select the proper situations in which to turn our holding into a bluff . ♠
Kevin Haney is a former actuary of MetLife but left the corporate job to focus on his pas-sions for poker and fitness. He is co-owner of Elite Fitness Club in Oceanport, NJ and is a certified personal trainer. With regards to poker he got his start way back in 2003 and particularly enjoys taking new players interested in mixed games under his wing and quickly making them proficient in all variants.
If interested in learning more, playing mixed games online, or just saying hello he can be reached at [email protected].
NOTE: WINNINGPERCENTAGESDONOTINCLUDETIES. ODDSPROVIDEDBY CARDPLAYER.COM/POKER-TOOLS/ODDS-CALCULATOR/TEXAS-HOLDEM
Analysis
TOURNAMENT HAND MATCHUP
Th is hand features a wild clash between two of the top poker tournament players in the game, with nei-ther player having all that much of a hand. Andrew Lichtenberger raised from the button with pocket threes and Ali Imsirovic three-bet to 750,000 from the big blind with Q-5 off suit. Th e fl op brought a pair of sevens and a nine. Imsirovic backed up his prefl op three-bet with a continuation bet of 400,000 into the pot of 1,650,000. Lichtenberger made the call with his underpair, and the turn brought the A♠.Imsirovic made another smaller bet, this time fi ring just 450,000 into the pot that had already swelled to 2,450,000. Lichtenberger called yet again, and the river brought the 10♣. Imsirovic took his foot off the gas and checked. Lichtenberger thought over his options for a moment and then elected to turn his pocket threes into a bluff , betting 1,850,000 into the pot that had grown to more than 3.3 million. Card Player was able to catch up with Lichtenberger after the hand played out to get his thoughts on his river decision. “It is kind of hard for me to not have anything at that point in the hand, given that I had called a three-bet and called two streets. It seemed like a reasonable spot to bluff if he had a hand like pocket queens or a rivered pair of tens. It would not be an easy call [for Imsirovic],” off ered Lichtenberger.
“It’s hard for me to get to the river with a worse hand that has better removal properties for a bluff . If I get there with king high, maybe I’m still supposed to bluff , but it probably interferes with him having the overpairs that were block-betting on the turn.” While pocket threes technically have more showdown value than something like K-Q, Lichtenberger notes that in the context of this hand, the two threes in his hand were essentially ‘napkins/blanks.’ With Imsirovic having just queen high himself, Imsirovic had just queen high and quickly folded. Lichtenberger took down the healthy pot without showdown to extend his lead.’
3 Imsirovic bet 400,000,
and Lichtenberger called. Imsirovic bet 450,000, and
With three players remaining and blinds of 50,000-100,000 and a big blind ante of 100,000, Andrew Lichtenberger raised to 225,000 from the button. Ali
Imsirovic three-bet to 750,000 from the big blind, and Lichtenberger called.
ANALYSIS
Andrew Lichtenberger
4,900,000 Chips Ali Imsirovic 4,225,000 Chips
2021 U.S. Poker Open
$10,000 No-Limit Hold’em Event
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Strategies, ANALYSIS & Commentary
VOLUME 34 / ISSUE 15 CARDPLAYER.COM
32
The 3 Most Common Exploits In Live Tournament Poker
By Matt Affl eck
H
ere we are going to dis-cuss three areas where I feel weak live players are easily exploited. Th is article will hopefully give you three areas to explore for leaks in your own game, as well as ways to take advan-tage of leaks in your opponents.Never Call With Your Bluff Catchers For the most part, players severely under bluff later streets, especially for large sizing. Th e exploit to be made here is to never call with your bluff catchers.
A bluff catcher is any hand that can only beat a bluff and never beat a value hand. Another way to phrase this would be to say, “Th e player is never value betting a worse hand, thus my hand is a bluff catcher.”
In general, when a player on the river makes a large, polarizing bet (often a very strong hand or bluff ), they do not have enough bluff com-binations in their range to make us indiff erent with our bluff catchers.
Th e goal of a polarizing bet is to make your opponent indiff erent of calling or folding with bluff catchers.
If they fold too many bluff catchers, they are giving away too much and the bettor makes money. If they call with too many bluff catchers, they also lose money.
Almost every opponent you will face does not include enough bluff s in their polarizing sizing to make
us indiff erent between call and fold.
Th us, the max exploit is to fold all bluff catchers and only call with hands that can beat value bets. Until an opponent shows you that they can include enough bluff s in their polar-ized range, you are incentivpolar-ized to overfold to these bets.
Check-Raise Like A Pro
Th e next exploit we will look at involves fl op continuation betting (c-bet). In general, your average player c-bets way too often. Your average player does not check-raise nearly enough to optimal. Th ese two exploits go together because one leads to the other. Players over c-bet because play-ers don’t check-raise enough.
Th e problem is that most play-ers don’t adjust their ranges correctly when they face opponents who prop-erly check-raise.
In general, you should be look-ing to increase your check-raislook-ing fre-quency against most players. Many players would be blown away that optimal check-raise frequencies on certain board textures can be upwards up 20% by the out-of-position player.
You almost never see someone check-raise that often.
Learn to punish aggressive c-bet-ters by check-raising like a mad man and make them uncomfortable.
Three-Bet A More Linear Range Th e fi nal exploit we will look at involves the three-bet and four-bet
ranges of our opponents. In general, players do not four-bet nearly often enough compared to what is optimal.
Th e adjustment we make is to three-bet a more linear range instead of the polarized range that many players use.
Against a 20% middle position opening range, we may simply three-bet the top 10% of hands in position as a linear range, and fl at call the rest of our playable hands. Since players under four-bet, we are not concerned about folding out the equity of our non-premium, but still good hands that we three-bet because they will be heavily dominated.
For example, 9-9 or K-Q suited become great hands to three-bet in a linear range against a player who under four-bets. Players often over-call to these four-bets and thus we get extra value from our range that we forego when we fl at-call instead of three-betting. When they four-bet, however, 9-9 and K-Q suited are often in bad shape due to being against A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J or A-K.
In summary, we need to be folding our bluff catchers on turns and rivers, check-raising more, and three-betting with a more linear range to exploit population tendencies. Take extra care in looking for these spots in your next few sessions. Watch how opponents react and how the exploits can be made. ♠
For years, Matt Affleck has been a force to be reckoned with both live and online.
The Washington state native has more than $4.5 million in combined tournament earnings, including a chop of the SCOOP main event for $470,000, and a 15th-place finish in the WSOP main event for $500,000.
Nowadays, you can find him hosting live webinars for PokerCoaching.com/CardPlayer where he provides hand analysis and top-level poker strategy content to thousands of students. Find him on Twitter @mcmatto.
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