Scenario development and grower interviews

In this section, I describe the specific processes and methods used for the core of my research and study related to the individual interviews with farmers in the Verde Valley. I developed different climate scenarios to see how farmers evaluated their own adaptive capacity in the face of climate change (e.g., Hobson & Niemeyer, 2011; Lorenzoni, Jordan, Hulme, Turner, & O'Riordan, 2000). These were based upon the 2014 National Climate Assessment’s projections about Southwest climate change and its effects on agriculture, and related to

increased pest outbreaks, more frequent and severe storms, less water (due to changes in

precipitation along with competition with urban areas), higher temperatures, and combined lower water and higher temperatures with values based on the NCA’s projections (Melillo et al., 2014). Following from my theoretical framework and literature review, the core of my research is based on individual growers’ ability to adapt to climate change. Takahashi et al. (2016) describe the use of interviews as their central method in a study similar to mine:

One of the best ways to delve into how farmers perceive risk and make management decisions is through in-depth interviews. Through interviews, we can gain insight into how climate change perceptions interact with agricultural practice; why farmers make certain management decisions; and the level of risk farmers perceive in climate change and the barriers they foresee in changing their practices to adapt to it. (n.p.)

To study the adaptive capacity of individual growers, in-depth, semi-structured interviews provided the best methodology for my research. This method also fit with my theoretical framework of a situated resilience approach, as it allowed for farmers to identify the

characteristics and processes that affect their adaptation to climate change as shaped by their specific and placed-based experiences.

The questions for the grower interviews were based around the theme of adaptive

capacity as informed by the preliminary literature review, key informant interviews, and climate change scenarios. The first questions were aimed at understanding the social and managerial aspects of the farms to gain a general overview of their agricultural activities. Because of a lack of current research on what is produced in the Verde Valley and how, I hope that this can serve as useful data for others interested in studying this area. Not only do these questions allow for a basic understanding of the general agricultural scene in this region but also knowing what crops are grown, what practices are used, what water sources and irrigation methods are available, and other similar details can provide additional insight into opportunities and barriers to adaptation.

However, the answers to these questions should definitely not be considered as exhaustive or representative of all agriculture in the Verde Valley.

The next round of questions inquired about the adaptive capacity of growers both in the past and in the future. One question asked how they have responded to problems in the past to gather information on the choices, resources, support, and limitations that affected them. The next five questions were based on the climate change scenarios and asked what they could do to adapt, if there are resources/aid available, if there are organizations/people/programs to help, and what barriers would limit their ability to adapt. The last questions explored how growers view climate change: if they have experienced change personally, if they believe in climate change, what information most influences their views, and what sources or people they trust on the subject. Finally, there were a few other questions included in the interviews related to laws and programs, conservation easements, and different crops being grown in the Verde Valley. While the responses to these questions were coded and sometimes included in the themes that I present in my results section, they were not central to my research question and approach for this thesis. The interview guide I used is included in Appendix C.

The criteria for the interviews used in this thesis were if the grower produces at least one crop (thus including pasture, pecans, wine grapes) rather than raising animals exclusively, along with if they are located in the 714 square mile area of the Middle Verde area. Because of the diversity in farm sizes, crops, irrigation methods, and growing practices that was understood through the literature review, these criteria were set to best represent the population of growers. Similarly to the key informant interviews described above, I used snowball sampling to identify my research participants both from online sources and from recommendations from other growers.

For each of the interviews, I called or emailed the growers to see if they were interested in being interviewed and to set up a time to do so. For the most part, I spoke with them at their home and/or operation. The interviews ranged from 20-90 minutes, with an average of 42

minutes per interview. They were recorded with the participants’ permission and then transcribed word-for-word. As before, I stopped pursuing new growers to interview once no new

information or ideas were heard (Bhattacherjee, 2012; Charmaz, 2006). Although I interviewed a total of 22 participants in the Verde Valley, only 20 of them are included in this thesis based on the criteria described above. The other two interviews were done with people from ranching families who graciously provided me with much insight and important perspectives on other aspects of agriculture in the area; however, their responses were not analyzed for this thesis work.